The Elon Musk Disinformation Machine is busy touting that early voting is great for Republicans. Mebbe. Mebbe not. What we know from a Washington Post article surveying voters who have already cast ballots, is that Kamala Harris has a 19% to 29% lead. Wow. If this holds true there could be a blow out. And the benefit of a blow out election is that it greatly weakens Donald Trump’s sure to come claims of cheating and yet another *stollen election.* He will simply look absurd claiming such a thing on these facts, if in fact this trend holds and it’s possible to declare victory on Election Night.
Recent national ABC News-Ipsos, New York Times-Siena College and CNN polls show Harris with an advantage of 19 to 29 points among voters who say they’ve already cast ballots. Those margins range from a 59-40 edge in the Times-Siena poll to a 62-33 edge in the ABC-Ipsos one.
All of them are well shy of Biden’s margins in late 2020 polls, when Democrats embraced mail voting and Trump attacked it and persuaded his supporters not to do it. […]
Polls from Marist, CNN, Fox News and USA Today-Suffolk University show that her leads among those who say they’ve already cast ballots look like this:
- Arizona: 9-12 points
- Georgia: 7-10 points
- Michigan: 26-39 points
- North Carolina: 2-6 points
- Pennsylvania: 17-35 points
- Wisconsin: 22-60 points
The only state where a major, high-quality poll has shown Harris actually trailing among those who have already cast ballots is CNN’s poll of Nevada, which shows Trump leading by six points.
Be that as it may, there are two other polls which have come out, notably the Emerson poll,. Forbes reports, which has Harris up one point in Nevada, “while Harris leads leads Trump 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released this week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).”
Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3% among likely voters according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Wednesday (margin of error 5 points)—effectively a tied race since the poll’s margin of error is five points.
It would be a shame if Harris lost Nevada but not crippling, if she could win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Bear in mind that Nevada has voted blue in every presidential election since 2008 and as controversial and strange as Trump is, reversing that trend in 2024 is not that likely. That said, Nevada has the fewest electoral votes of all of the other swing states, so if Harris has to lose one swing state, please let it be this one.
We will all do our best to read the tea leaves in the next few days. I for one am thrilled that this suspense can’t go on too much longer. I’m running out of nails to bite. Maybe I’ll switch to chewing on bullets.
I wonder how many Republicans will vote for Harris? The other issue is will they do so down ballot. The best way forward is for everyone to smarten up and realize her winning is not enough. We need the House to stop shenanigans and the senate for the changes in the judicial system.
Thanks, Ursula for pointing out that WaPo reported Kamala’s incredible edge over trump and the early votes that have been counted. What a fantastic piece of news that my state, WI, is 22-60 points ahead!
trump’s not thinking like a grownup, as usual, and if he didn’t dump a lawsuit on Bezos for not kissing his ring well enough we probably never would have known about these states where she is so far ahead.
Murph points out that the restaurant and hospitality unions give paid time off to vote, so there’s no better reason to vote early than that.
So how many people were surveyed? That makes such a big difference. Was it 100 or 10,000? Or maybe 100,000? I can’t believe she has that much of a lead with only a hundred or a few hundred respondents. I’ll still wait until the votes are all in and counted, thank you though for this information. I appreciate all of you and how you provide us with so much information every single day.