The “Hidden Figures” In The Recent Polling That Adds All The Clarity In The World

You already know that I cover the polling frequently for y’all, and sometimes I constantly harp on the importance of the sub tabs and cross tabs to provide more clarity. Not this time. This time it’s nothing more than simple math on the base numbers, which nobody seems to be doing.

Except for Florida Democratic strategist and pollster Fernand Armandi. But before we get to Fernand’s revelation, let’s just do a quick recap of the former and current polling situations, just so we’re all starting on the same page.

A month ago, Trump was riding high. No wonder he chose a political imbecile like Beggar vance as his running mate. A month ago, Trump had a lead of 3.2 points over Biden in the Politico aggregate national polling, right at the edge of the +/- 3.5 margin of error. In addition, Trump led outside the margin of error in 4 of the 5 battleground states, Georgia and North Carolina were off the radar completely.

What a difference a month makes. As of today, Harris has now put the national race within the margin of error, has either tied or moved every battleground state race within the margin of error, and now both Georgia and North Carolina are back in the game.

Now, while it’s an impressive feat, especially in the space of three weeks, the critical phrase in all of these results are still within the margin of error. But is that actually accurate when you consider the situation? Not when you look at exactly the same numbers, but with the Armandi
Twist. Like this;

• Two weeks ago Harris trailed Trump nationally by 4 points. In the same poll taken today, Harris is +2.1 on Trump, within the margin of error. But as Armandi points out, here’s what’s not within the margin of error, In the last two weeks, Harris has gained 6.1 points on Trump nationally. That’s well outside the margin of error
• Let’s look at my adopted home state of Nevada, a notoriously hard state to poll due to population migration. A month ago Trump was +8, well outside of the margin of error. But today Trump is +1.5 points. Still within the margin of error, but what’s not inside the margin is the 6.9 points she has shaved off of Traitor Tot’s lead
• It’s everywhere. Earlier today The Cook Report changed the status of four critical races, NV, AZ, GA and NC from Lean R to Toss Up. Every one of those states was outside the margin of error a month ago, and what’s not under the margin of error today is the point spread Harris has laid out in clawing back into those races
• The same is true of the rest of the battleground states. Harris’s gains in MI, WI, and PA over the last month are all outside the margin of error

Here’s why it’s so important. It’s difficult to blame poll results on statistical clutter or an outlier poll when every goddamn state is posting the same basic results. This is a sea change in the results of the most reputable polls. And all in a month. And just think, we have the Democratic National Convention a couple of weeks from now, as many as three presidential debates, and Trump being sentenced in Manhattan in five weeks. Talk about room to grow! Don’t touch that dial.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.

Support the site with a subscription today and see no more ads!

Go Ad-free Now!