This is a complex trail of breadcrumbs, friends, so get out your magnifying glasses and look sharp. We will go step by step. You know the general schematic already, which is that Ken Buck announced he was resigning next week, thereby triggering the governor of Colorado to call for a special election. That election has been scheduled for June 25. Now Lauren Boebert was already set to run for Buck’s congressional seat in CO-04 after she left CO-03 in disgrace, basically. So the issue has been: Will she leave her own seat to run in the special election (thereby triggering another special election — I told you this was complicated) or would she hang in for the June 25 primary? Let us begin.
NEW: Rep Lauren Boebert (R-CO) will not seek the special election nomination to replace Rep Ken Buck (R) for the remainder of 2024, instead focusing on the GOP primary to replace him for a full two-year term. The primary and special election are both June 25. #copolitics
— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) March 13, 2024
That’s her choice. Now take a look at how it all shakes down because it’s a real mind tweak. A “vacancy committee” would have had to choose Boebert over 10 other Republicans running for Buck’s seat for the special election. She would not only have had to have been chosen but here’s the biggy, she would have had to resign in CO-03. She wanted to spare herself the humiliation of resigning and then losing. Now all she has to do is lose in CO-04, which is losing only — minus the resignation.
Boebert holds a nearly 10x advantage in fundraising over GOP rivals Jerry Sonnenberg and Deb Flora (as of Jan) but she is likely to face an effort from more traditional GOP insiders to steer the special election nomination to one of her rivals, which could cause voter confusion.
— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) March 13, 2024
I've seen a lot of understandable confusion that the special election will give one of Boebert's GOP rivals time in the office and the power of "incumbency." That's not accurate. The special election and GOP primary are the same day. This is decided June 25, not in November.
— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) March 13, 2024
Boebert knows this makes her path to winning the seat harder. She's blasting Buck's early resignation as a "swampy backroom deal to try to rig an election." Full statement below: pic.twitter.com/k2JfD77spm
— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) March 13, 2024
Best case scenario for Boebert is probably if it's a single ballot with the GOP primary listed first. Otherwise, GOP voters may select their candidate in the special election (not her) and skip the GOP primary or vote for the same person in both.
— Kyle Clark (@KyleClark) March 13, 2024
Debate will rage about this all day, certainly, and possibly until the election itself. And no, I don’t know if her decision is carved in stone. But I think her motivation is pretty clear and that’s why her decision probably won’t change. She’s staying in the primary because if she resigns and runs in the special election, then she looks worse. It’s more of a humiliation.
But if she stays on the course she entered on a few months ago, then she might lose the primary (she was trailing in third place) but she believes that she can win the primary by outspending her opponents. If this was a normal race and she was a normal candidate, that basic campaign logic might prevail.
I don’t think money matters here. CO-04 is a lot more conservative than CO-03. I lived in CO-04 so this isn’t total speculation. I grew up in the Denver/Boulder area and I can tell you first hand, you get into CO-04, which is rural, it was like stepping into a time machine and going back about twenty years. Her antics in the theater didn’t win her any votes and I think that the entire state is pretty sick of her making them look bad.
In point of fact, Boebert might have been better off if she just stayed in CO-03 and tried to defeat Adam Frisch again. Although I understand why that prospect daunted her and why she ran off to Ken Buck’s district, thinking it would be easier. But it never was going to be easier and she earned the term “carpetbagger” very early on.
It’s like a chess game. Bobo’s pretty cornered here. She left CO-03, essentially in disgrace, she’s trailing in the primary in CO-04, and then Ken Buck did his thing and that only complicated her position.
I think that Bobo may be finished June 25. At least that’s what it looks like. And she has nobody to blame but herself. Like Madison Cawthorn, if she had ever had any respect for the monumental good fortune that fell into her lap, a chance to be in Congress, when utterly unqualified, due to the prevailing political insanity of MAGA, she would have behaved decently.
But like Cawthorn, it went to her head. She thought she was too totally cool and none of the rules applied to her. So she got in way over her head and now it doesn’t like like there’s an avenue out. Bye bye, Bobo.
Goodbye Dollar Store Palin.
You won’t be missed.
She’s stupid but not completely clueless. And divorced from her hubby but not divorced from reality, or at least the judge hasn’t signed that particular divorce decree. Here’s how I see it. I agree completely he best chance was to stay where she was. We all thought she was toast last time and as the election returns came it in 2022 we were (at least I was) surprised she was even hanging in there so I wasn’t quite as shocked as some folks when at the end she pulled it out. (pun intended) I doubt lightening would have struck twice for her but again she had a better chance there than where she’s trying to run now.
Anyway, although she got Trump’s endorsement she’s still trailing in CO-4. Deep down inside she knows she’s not going to win the primary. That means come January 3 next year she’s out of Congress and out of a job. I think she has to know that by now. She also knows how unlikely, even with Trump issuing orders that she’ll get the nod to run for the seat in the Special Election and that if she does even in THAT district she’ll have to spend a lot of money to win. It might make a “no f**king chance for a Democrat” seat in play for a change. And if she has to use up her war chest if the seat seems vulnerable she won’t be able to raise as much as a Democratic challenger for the November election.
She probably sat down and looked at things coldly and honestly and realized that come the first of the year she’s gone from Congress. No more $185k a year salary and all the other perks. She knows she needs to bank all she can because Fox won’t be giving her any gig. They learned their lesson with Palin and all the money they lost on HER. Bobo isn’t “blonde & blue” and while Fox has women who are just as empty-headed & even downright crazy stupid on it’s lineup they are the blonde & blue types. She ain’t that.
Her best best move is to run in the primary and raise every dime she can for her PAC in the meantime. Campaign finance laws are such that even an idiot like her knows how to quietly dissolve the PAC and legally transfer the money to an entity that from there allows it to go into her bank account. So she’ll have a bit of a nest egg to fall back on. IF she doesn’t blow it all between now and June 25 trying to win a primary she has no chance of winning.
She’s as dumb as she looks and acts, but meaner than a snake and learned from running her little diner how to scam. There’s book smarts and street smarts and some moderately successful criminals have been in the latter category. I think it’s possible she’s one of them. Keep an eye out to see how much she seems to be spending on that primary campaign. If it doesn’t seem like all that much, then we’ll know for sure what her endgame is and choosing not to run in the Special election might have been if not smart, then the “best BAD option.”
I remember a time where the Republican Party would’ve been embarrassed by someone like her, and would’ve never allowed her to be a part if it.
Unfortunately the republicans are no longer in a party, they’re in a cult thanks to the devil/ rapist the Republicans decided to sell their souls to.
Bad things are coming to the Republican cult. We’ve seen cults begin and end in America for decades, and if there’s one thing we’ve all learned about cults is that the leaders are always mentally ill, and they’re always criminals. Cults always end with one of two scenarios, when the cult leader is imprisoned or the cult leader dies.
Either one has a high probability in this cult considering Trump is nearly 78, he’s morbidly obese, and he has 91 federal indictments breathing down his neck, aging him further every day.
Trump is almost as old as Biden, and in the second, Biden is sane and Trump is very arguably not sane.
As they would say over here “If she had brains, she would be dangerous”
They say that in New York. That’s an expression I learned from my parents, who were New Yorkers.