A new Quinnipiac poll shows some good new for Democrats. There’s been a shift in the last month and a significant change in the gender gap – with women breaking towards Biden. We keep seeing doom and gloom reporting on President Biden’s poll numbers. Journalists do so love their “horse race” blather. There IS a concern that the President has polled at an alarmingly low rate for an incumbent even though by objective measures his administration is mostly a string of successes. Not everything he and Democrats have wanted but way the hell more than most President’s have achieved. And way the hell more than the progressive wing of the Party thought might happen I might add.
As a white guy who freely admits both those traits which are from genetics I had no control over have benefited me greatly in my life. I’ve gotten breaks and have had advantages women and/or non-white people too often don’t get. That’s why despite twice in my life when I really needed them two great jobs I would have gotten because I was the best qualified for but went to (white) women I didn’t complain. (In case you’re wondering those who made the decisions were honest with me and promised in good faith to try and make it up to me) Neither woman was unqualified I should add. On the contrary. But again I’ve know pretty much since I was old enough to understand women put up with all manner of shiite I’ve never had to.
That’s why for the life of me I’ve never understood why women haven’t overwhelmingly voted for Democrats, at least for President and other federal offices. Especially when in 2016 there was a highly qualified woman, as much if not more so than every GOP primary candidate from their primaries NOT named Trump on the ballot. Even many of us guys were telling women we knew who either hemmed & hawed or talked about “reasons”, who complained it was long past time we had a woman in the Oval Office but “does it have to be HER?” (Hillary) I just didn’t get it. I still don’t.
Women make up more than half the population, and more than half of voting age U.S. citizens. Even before 2016 when Trump was promising to appoint judges and Justices who would take away the right to an abortion and other reproductive freedoms I was stunned there wasn’t a gender split of at least 70 – 30 percent in favor of Hillary Clinton and Democrats for Senate at least. Clearly the women’s vote wasn’t what any progressive would expect. And WHITE women actually broke for Trump.
I’m sure after decades of talk, of GOP Presidents back to Reagan making promises but not quite following through on the forced birth and take away contraception agenda women in particular got complacent. They believed “no SCOTUS would actually DO it.” But they did.
Anyone reading this knows as well as I do that the Justices and the GOP from Trump on down calculated that there would be a few months of outrage after repealing Roe and that would be the end of it. And they would be able to set the table just as Clarence Thomas was pushing for and repeal access to prescription contraceptives. And put an end to stuff like equal pay for equal work and so on.
It hasn’t worked out that way as you know. Still, the GOP from Trump on down has been sure that by 2024 women would finally “get over it” and like in 2016 they could harness a combination of white and Hispanic women (using conservative Priests to bully the latter) to get a 2016 type women’s vote.
As this Politico article indicates THAT now seems to not be working out as planned either. The article starts out noting the gender gap is growing which is good news for the President. It also sneaks in something else:
And that’s good news for the Democratic incumbent: Biden holds a slight lead over Trump in Wednesday’s 2024 presidential election poll, 50 percent to 44 percent. The same matchup was “too close to call” just a month ago.
That’s quite a shift and keep in mind we have a long time to go between now and November, or even late Sept. when early voting will begin in some places. Given how badly they want to try and create the impression it will be too close to call right up until the polls close on election night journalists, at least some of them note that on the economy, the full effects of legislation Biden led the Congress to pass will really start kicking in this year.
Better still, with GOPers who voted against much of it when various ceremonies kicking off this or that highway/bridge improvement or new building or say a factory not just Congressional Democrats will be calling out the hypocrisy. President Biden has attended some of this and will attend more. And it’s clear he will be letting his alter-ego Dark Brandon loose to turn those GOPers into ash heaps.
However there are all those butt-hurt small-town rural white guys convinced like that Joe the Plumber a-hole they are just one little break away from bigly success. That they are being unfairly denied. By non-white guys and yes, women. So the poll Politico cites notes Trump still has the advantage with men. It should be so but the fact is it is and will be women voters who can comfortably give Biden a second term, and even help us keep control of the Senate.
And not just Black Women who as they’ve so often done in the past have carried the bulk of the load. This time it looks like they will be getting the help they should have had all along, at least from other women. Yeah guys, if you’re feeling ashamed you damn well should be. I know I am. But getting back to the point I wanted to make:
More women said they would support Biden over Trump in this latest survey, with 58 percent backing Biden and 36 percent backing Trump. Last month, the Quinnipiac poll found 53 percent of women supported the incumbent Democrat, compared to 41 percent for the Republican challenger.
Ok, so that’s not the at least 70 30 split I earlier said one would expect. However, there are plenty of signs women are still major pissed off about what SCOTUS and the GOP have wrought. Even freaking solid red states find abortion access initiatives being passed! More will be on the ballot this year including one in Florida which will make it a regular topic in the news. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that by summer and especially after the GOP convention if Trump is the nominee to see that gender gap get bigger. Biden might not get up to 70% of the women’s vote but something in the mid 60s is possible. Best of all, GOPers will do much of the work to cause that to happen!
As Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said “The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on.” Indeed it is.
(I know at least one reader of PZ will ask so I’ll answer his question now, quoting directly from the linked article: “The poll surveyed 1,650 self-identified registered voters nationwide from Jan. 25 to 29, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.4 percentage points. Surveys conducted by Quinnipiac University are based on random sampling.”)
That’s why I held my nose in 2016 and voted for Hillary.
Not because I thought she was the best for the job, or deserved it because of her gender, she was the best choice. And the SCOTUS appointments were my main concern.
I still don’t understand why ANY woman would vote Republican.
Sometimes, being right isn’t all that satisfying.