Israel’s Version Of “Bin Laden Determined To Strike” Was Far More Detailed

The Hamas terrorist attack into Israel on Oct. 7 wasn’t an impromptu thing, or even something relatively hastily put together a month or two prior. No, it was a carefully crafted plan that Hamas developed. And sat on, waiting for the right circumstances (I’ll get to that) to implement. It was even rehearsed, something else I’ll get to. What the New York Times reported yesterday is that the plan, the blueprint was in the hands of Israeli Intelligence a year ago! That’s right. They had the whole scenario we saw unfold that awful day in their hands for a year and no one who mattered took it seriously.

The NYT article notes that while no specific date for attempting the attack was known it laid out a methodical strategy to overwhelm Israeli defenses, attack (and even take over) cities and key bases.  Even if they didn’t wind up taking over cities and bases the fact is the initial phase was carried out virtually as called for in the the plan Israeli Intelligence had obtained:

Hamas followed the blueprint with shocking precision. The document called for a barrage of rockets at the outset of the attack, drones to knock out the security cameras and automated machine guns along the border, and gunmen to pour into Israel en masse in paragliders, on motorcycles and on foot — all of which happened on Oct. 7.

The article goes on to note sensitive details about Israeli troop dispositions, communications and other things raised serious questions about how Hamas had gathered the information. And whether there were leaks in Israel’s security establishment. It’s just my opinion but while Mossad is a very capable and formidable intelligence agency it is not and never has deserved the almost godlike, omnipotent perception others have of it. Same with the IDF. Yes, they’ve been fierce in defending Israeli soil in past wars but who isn’t when defending their very homes and communities? (Hint – take a look north at Ukraine) Full disclosure, as a Marine of 1980s vintage and bitter memories of Lebanon and Beirut for decades I’ve had an axe to grind with the vaunted Israeli military and it’s supposed invincibility. They couldn’t project power even a hundred kilometers past their own border, but that’s another subject.  The point (from the linked article) is this:

The document circulated widely among Israeli military and intelligence leaders, but experts determined that an attack of that scale and ambition was beyond Hamas’s capabilities, according to documents and officials. It is unclear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other top political leaders saw the document, as well.

Yesterday evening I read and heard a word several times that summed up the attitude of those that had actual power to the Hamas plan – “Aspirational.” They were dismissive of Hamas’ ability to carry it out. Perhaps when it came to taking over entire cities and military bases in Israel they had a point but it will be interesting to see how close Hamas came to pushing a large force onto and seizing that air base right next to the Gaza strip. Right where the music festival was being held.  I’m sure with the ass covering that’s sure to happen (just like here after 9/11) attempts will be made to say that was never really a possibility. Be wary of that and here’s why.

Remember when I said I’d get to why the attack didn’t happen until it did? Think about this past year. Netanyahu has been embattled to put it mildly. In his own version of being Trump he’s been fighting to hold onto power to shield himself from legal liability by using his political office. His attempts to strip the Israeli courts of their independence sparked massive outrage and protests which escalated to military reservists refusing to show up when called. Even when he decided to back off it continued, because Israeli’s knew damn well that once the pressure was off he’d try to ram those changes through. So yes, “Bibi” has for much of the year been in serious legal AND political trouble. That’s caused a lot of security problems inside Israel and increasing issues in the occupied West Bank has caused a steady re-deployment of the IDF there to keep a lid on things. To protect all those settlements.

One of the places that saw a bunch of troops redeployed was that base right next to the Gaza Strip. I’m certain that one day when the worst of this is over and the “How the hell did this ever happen in the first place?” review kicks off in earnest it will be clear that that’s when Hamas began to think they had their chance to strike and do real damage to Israel. In fact, one Israeli intelligence analyst observed a “rehearsal:”

Then, in July, just three months before the attacks, a veteran analyst with Unit 8200, Israel’s signals intelligence agency, warned that Hamas had conducted an intense, daylong training exercise that appeared similar to what was outlined in the blueprint.

She tried to push her warning up the the NYT claims to have seen encrypted emails that a Col. in the Gaza Division (the one tasked with providing security for the portion of Israel next to Gaza) blew off her concerns. Her response to him will become  part of history:

“I utterly refute that the scenario is imaginary,” the analyst wrote in the email exchanges. The Hamas training exercise, she said, fully matched “the content of Jericho Wall.”

Again I refer back to that “aspirational” mindset that had taken hold among those in Israel’s security apparatus. It sure as hell doesn’t look aspirational now does it? I won’t speak for you but to this ole broken down jarhead yes, that report about an attack they called “Jericho Wall” amongst themselves was actually pretty ambitious. However, given a state sponsor like Iran providing weapons, money and training and the number of significant rocket attacks over the years you’d think they would have taken the threat more seriously. Especially as more and more IDT forces were being sent to the West Bank. Did they think Hamas wouldn’t notice? There was after all an actual concern that Hamas had learned what they did to create the Jericho Wall attack plan!

My reaction when I learned about the NYT reporting was a flashback to 9/11 and the infamous August 6, 2001 Presidential Daily Brief delivered to Bush 43 as he vacationed at his ranch in Crawford Texas. That title on it: Bin Laden Determined To Strike In U.S.  Now, it’s true THAT particular PDB wasn’t full of specifics, nor was that when Bush delivered his “OK, you’ve covered your asses” statement. That’s something he said some months earlier. However, it’s important to remember a few things about that time. (The link in this paragraph is worth the time – among other things it questions how/why the 9/11 commission let Bush off the hook)

It’s important to know that in their final get together of the transition Clinton specifically warned Bush his biggest national security threat was Bin Laden/Al Queeda. Bush had already been briefed on the “Bin Laden Unit” Clinton had established and it was getting good at its job. Bush of course immediately dismantled it. He assumed he knew all about Arab/Muslim countries and their people because his daddy (and him too) had done oil deals with the upper crust of those places. He didn’t actually know jack about those countries. Most Americans don’t either and assume they know far more than they actually do. Again, that’s a longer topic I won’t delve into here. What matters is that despite credible warnings about threats from various parts of the govt. Bush and his closest advisors assumed serious attacks here in the U.S. were “aspirational.” To put it more crudely I’m certain they thought and probably said things to the effect “those ragheads could never pull off an attack over HERE.

If anything the 1992 bombing in NYC that attempted to but failed to bring down the building bolstered their view. A stray field report that at a meeting in Asia the possibility of hijacking airliners and crashing them into specific targets got buried in a mountain of other field reports. The bombing of our embassy in Kenya, the attack on the USS Cole? Well they figured, that was on Clinton’s watch and with a Republican back in the WH Al Queeda wouldn’t DARE try anything even if they had the capability!  But the warnings kept coming despite the lack of the Bin Laden unit to collate info from separate agencies and assess it. And follow up. CIA Director George Tenant tried, but didn’t get the support or authority he needed. In fact the WH grew weary of his “Bugging them.”

So, if that PDB with its prescient title Bin Laden Determined To Strike In U.S. didn’t contain a specific attack plan or date the fact is there were enough reports out there that if followed up on as a result of that briefing the 9/11 attack might have been stopped. Or at least substantially reduced in scope/effectiveness.

However, Israel had in its hand the exact blueprint for what we saw happen on Oct 7. All they were lacking was a date on which Hamas might try to actually do it. But I predict the report that analyst prepared and sent up the chain that described the “rehearsal” is going to affect Israeli politics and its future in ways that are impossible to predict. As well as that country’s stability. No, there was still no “date for the attack” but a practice run sure as hell suggests they were going to try it and probably sooner rather than later.

The retro-scope provides 2020 vision but I don’t think it’s needed to suggest Israel blew it big time. The unrest in the West Bank and steady re-deployment of IDF forces there got Hamas attention. When troops were transferred from the military base both next to Gaza AND with that large musical festival set to take place you don’t have to be Captain Obvious to realize that was set as the date. And that the music festival which was had a goal of fostering better Israeli-Palestinian relations which of course is the opposite of what Hamas would want one would think Israel might have thought something like “You know, even if that attack plan seems overly ambitious that music festival right next to the border might tempt them to try something – especially since they have to know the nearby base is at depleted strength. Maybe we should deploy some extra security just in case.”

You have to wonder about that report I mentioned, the one about the rehearsal which the analyst’s boss agreed was credible but not worthy of passing up to superiors had in fact made it up the chain. Just as decades later the “what ifs” about the leadup to 9/11 in our own country haunt us the same will happen in Israel when they look at the leadup to October 7.  It’s their own 9/11 and one has to worry about how they are responding and what it might lead to. We sure as  hell screwed the pooch after 9/11. We knew exactly who the attackers (their organization and leaders were) and where they were physically located. Had we limited our response to Afghanistan and in particular Tora Bora the region and the world would be a very different, and better place now.

I understand the desire of Israel to exact retribution and I won’t cry for a single member of Hamas they kill in the process. It’s all the collateral damage and the quite real of this war turning into a regional one that worries me. Keep in mind that the PEOPLE, ordinary Palestinians in Gaza never had a bit of say in Hamas being put in charge (and polls show they’ve never been in favor of Hamas) of the place. Nope. That was Netanyahu’s doing and even though at the time Hamas swore to the destruction of Israel they were handed control over one of the most densely populated small (and poor) bits of land on this earth.  Because he wanted to weaken the Palestinian Authority up in the West Bank who had come around to the concept of a two-state solution to the problem Israel has had from the beginning. Sooner or later that conflict Netanyahu set up was bound to explode into a world of sh*t.

It’s later. Worse, Israel had far more advance knowledge than we did about 9/11 yet “later” happened anyway. It’s a lot to take in. And we are only at the beginning.

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