The other day I thought I had read the lede sentence of all time. But I was wrong. Here is the lede sentence of all time. “The thrice-indicted, twice-impeached, once-defeated, politically toxic Republican standard-bearer has a real shot at the presidency again.” That eclipses my previous favorite, which was this: “A man is running to run the government he tried to overthrow while he was running it, even as he is running to stay ahead of the law.” The first one is from Politico, today, and the second one from the New York Times. If you’re asking as I am, WTF is going on in this country, you are not alone.
This is sheer madness. We have officially translated from reality into the Upside-Down version of America. Maybe we were ready to do it for some time. Maybe it just took a uniquely poisonous character like Donald Trump to come along to bring out the absolute worse in this country and set us at each other’s throats. Whatever the reason, the plain fact is that despite the fact that Trump is a civilly liable rapist, with six bankruptcies, thrice-indicted, twice-impeached and once-defeated, he is at the top of the GOP ticket — at least until he’s not.
The simple conclusion to be reached by that simple observation is that the democratic experiment has already failed. Democracy depends upon two functioning political parties and we have one. That isn’t democracy. So I don’t know what we’re about to see next. But let’s look at the Politico article:
Although the early polling of a potential head-to-head match-up between Trump and Biden is close, and 2016 remains a cautionary tale for anyone dismissive of Trump’s chances, the Republican case against Trump leans heavily on the notion that he’s unelectable, and Democrats clearly prefer to run against him on the assumption that he’ll be beaten.
There is no doubt that Trump is the riskiest electoral choice for Republicans and the odds may be against him in a rematch with Biden. But the “can’t” in the common formulation, “Trump can’t win,” is a strong word.
If nothing else, once you’ve won a major party nomination, you’ve got some significant chance of winning, just by dint of being one of two people in the country who could plausibly be president at that point.
A nominee is the almost-automatic inheritor of a solid electoral block constituting roughly half the country, or about 45 percent of the popular vote and 200 electoral votes. “Each party has now established a virtually impregnable sphere of influence across a large number of states in which they dominate elections up and down the ballot — from the presidential contest through Congress and state races,” Ron Brownstein writes, pointing out that 40 states have voted for the same party in the past four presidential elections.
Regardless, let’s say the odds are heavily stacked against Trump. If, say, Joe Biden has a 70 percent chance of winning and Trump only a 30 percent chance, the fact is that 30 percent things happen all the time. A good major-league hitter has about a 30 percent chance of getting a hit during any given at bat, and fans aren’t shocked when he does it.
Again, the big issue here is the fact that we’re even having this conversation. That the GOP is even thinking of putting a man with this level of baggage atop their ticket is unthinkable. Yet they are, and so the end result is being debated and gamed. That’s the problem here.
The reality is that it’s less that Biden is the indispensable bulwark against Trump than Biden needs to run against Trump to win.
Maybe. I’m not sure Ron DeSantis being 45 years old is enough to offset the fact that he’s an unsuccessful governor who has run his state into the ground, plus being a lunatic who engages in violent rhetoric and attacks marginalized groups, while alienating the biggest employer in Florida, Disney. But maybe youth would be enough. I don’t know. I know that ageism is rampant in this country, like all the other isms, but DeSantis is not an appealing candidate for any reason other than youth. He’s made that abundantly clear.
Biden needs the 77-year-old Trump to mute his age as an issue, Trump to obscure his ethical problems and Trump to match his unpopularity.
Trump is weaker than he was in 2020, but so is Biden. Trump may not be capable of picking up any additional votes over and above 2020, but Biden certainly could lose some.
According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, Biden has a dismal 39 percent approval rating; 42 percent strongly disapprove of the job Biden is doing, including 41 percent of independents. If the economy settles down into a cushiony soft landing, which is looking likelier, Biden could get a boost. Otherwise, he’s a weak incumbent sitting atop a deeply discontented country.
I’m not sure of the accuracy of this and I’ll tell you why. The country is deeply divided, yes. That’s the only reason that Biden isn’t getting approval ratings in the 60s, which he would be if this was a normal country and these were normal times. We are not. And so the fact that Biden has done an outstanding job on so many levels is not getting the credit it deserves and would get if these were normal times.
It’d behoove Republicans not to play this game and offer someone who’s fresh and relatively young, with much less baggage, beginning with not having committed or been indicted for any crimes.
Well, folks, I hear Scott Walker is back out there talking about politics. Maybe he’s your boy, GOP.
Failing that, the GOP is going to bank on Trump not being literally unelectable, and hope for the best.
That’s the bottom line of the article and it is the bottom line, period, if the GOP is nuts enough to put this horrendous man with unspeakable baggage and problems on the top of its ticket they may find themselves reaping a whirlwind they do not anticipate. If they do, then caveat emptor, let the buyer beware. Because they will deserve everything they get. The issue now is, will the GOP wake the hell up in time to at least mitigate its damages, if not save itself and nominate somebody else?
I see no reason why America is going to undo what it did in 2020 and restore this bum, Trump, to power. The big loser in 2020 could be the GOP. That would be fine, except for the fact that for democracy to work we need two functioning political parties. The GOP took a very bad turn to the dark side in 2016 and we’re still living with that decision. Things can only get so crazy and then there’s going to be an explosion of some sort and I hope it’s at the ballot box in 2024 and the Republicans get slaughtered. Maybe that’s what they need as a wake call.
I think that there’s plenty of evidence in other countries that more than two parties can work quite well. Maybe over the next few years with the probable ascendance of the Democratic Party another party of the center right will arise.
One thing is for sure, it won’t happen unless something is done about electoral financing. There can’t be a fair representation of the populace until the dead weight of the morbidly rich and their corrupt money is removed from the system. And the center can become the center.
Biden’s age is a problem, but if he remains healthy and vigorous he will easily beat trump. That said, Democrats shouldn’t cross their fingers, but have a Plan B just in case. There are several excellent potential candidates including the current vice-president. I would love to see Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan’s gutsy governor in the White House. She got moxie.
There should always be a ‘Plan B’ irrespective of prevailing wind directions – otherwise it could easily turn ‘ill wind’. We don’t want that to happen for the safety, security and wellbeing of America; American Government; American people.
Ursula, a lot of what you’re reacting to is the media framing of the story. They have to have a “story”, right? What they say here is of course technically true, but that doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen. It only becomes more likely to happen the more people take it seriously. Such as you. So take a deep breath. Yes, I know, we have to take it seriously, but let’s face it, they need to sell their damn papers.
The main reason for Biden’s “unpopularity” is the media. In the name of “fairness” and “impartiality,” the media–controlled by corporate heads who are largely conservative–insist on challenging Democratic presidents on everything, especially by giving “equal time” to GOPers (it was the same way under Obama–especially coverage of the Affordable Care Act). If there’s anything good coming out–like the economy numbers–the corporate media will act as though it was supposed to happen that way but, when something bad happens, then it’s all the President’s personal policy failure. (Hell, look back at the deficit ceiling coverage. Did the GOP get blamed the way they should’ve been by the media? Of course not. Biden got blamed for “not working with” GOP leaders to resolve the crisis, even though the GOP “leaders” couldn’t even get their own sh*t together because of their far-right nutjobs trying to hold the country hostage if their temper-tantrum policies couldn’t prevail over any form of common sense. But THAT didn’t matter to the corporate media fockers.)
Gavin’s Coming! 😁