“Putin’s Chef” Lost The Battle. But He May End Up Winning The War

My God sheriff! Isn’t this a mess?   If it isn’t, it’ll sure do until the mess gets here   Tommy Lee Jones   No Country for Old Men

Let me give you a little sage advice from a guy who went through The Cold War. Pour yourself a stiff drink, sit down, pop a chill pill, put your feet up, and prepare to watch a whole lot of news over the next few weeks. Because this is the kind of ill timed, ill advised, poorly planned clusterf*ck you seldom see anymore from people who should know better. And far from being over, it’s just getting started.

It all started about 36 hours ago when Putin’s Chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin threw a pissy fit. A little background here. Prigozhin is a long time confidant. Back in 2014 Putin tried to invade Ukraine through Crimea, but didn’t want to use regular Russian troops. It was Putin’s Chef who provided a private army, The little green men, recruited by Prigozhin from Russian prisons to front line fight for pardons and pay. Since then, Putin’s chef’s army has grown to some 50,000 men, sent by Putin to such far flung places as Libya, Syria, and their Central African republic to do his dirty work. In the Central African Republic, his shock troops purloin some half a billion dollars a year in blood diamonds and gold to finance their operations.

It’s no surprise that Putin would want Prigozhin’s shock troops to go into Ukraine when he invaded. After all, every mercenary he sent in was one less Russian soldier he had to risk. It is estimated that there are some 25,000 working in Ukraine.

Which brings us to the flash point. Prigozhin’s troops have suffered horrible losses in southern Ukraine fighting over a useless piece of property. The Russian army has long had its nose out of joint from The little green mens independence from Russian army command, and in return Prigohzin has long accused the Russia military of depriving him of the material and supplies he needs to succeed.

And then it came to a head. Prigozhin claimed claimed that Russian military had used long range rockets and concerted fire on his troops in an effort to take them out. He pulled a convoy of about 25,000 men and made a run for the vorder. He publicly announced he was heading to Moscow to set things right, and was immediately branded a traitor by Putin. He crossed the border, invested the city of Rostov on Don, the HQ for the Russian army fighting in Ukraine, and got to within 120 miles of Moscow when it was announced that an agreement was brokered between Putin and his chef by the President of Belarus. Prigozhin agreed to return to his bases, and remain in exile in Belarus.

I swear to God, this reads like a script from a 3 Stooges short, but it’s as serious as a heart attack. The agreement that was brokered has the President of Belarus guaranteeing the safety of Putin’s Chef in exile in Belarus. But all you need to know about the President of Belarus is that he immediately agreed to let Russian troops cross into his country in order to take advance jump off positions for the original invasion of Ukraine. I hope Putin’s chef learns how to sleep with his eyes open.

Next, there is no information that has been made public about the disposition of Prigozhin mercenary army. They have no loyalty to Putin or the Russian army, in fact they are Russians Putin has imprisoned. Their loyalty is to Prigozhin, and their distrust for the Russian military fueled their march on Moscow. What happens to this ragtag mob?

But by far and away the biggest loser in this debacle is Vladimir Putin. He has spent 20 years promoting himself as the ultimate strongman, just like Traitor Tot promoted himself as actually having a brain, and now it’s all falling down around him. Here’s why Putin is in the crapper;

• Putin made himself reliant on the Wagner group. He was in an unpopular war in Ukraine, and the more prisoner mercenaries that nobody gave a sh*t about into Ukraine, the fewer 18-40 year old conscripts he had to call up, making the war even more unpopular. And now they’re rebelling against him
• Putin’s relationship with the Wagner Group is bittersweet at best. A private army of incarcerated criminals, recruited by Prigozhin were actually outperforming Putin’s main battle troops in battle in Ukraine
• Prigozhin made his intentions to march on Moscow crystal clear before he even left Ukraine, and yet he was still able to cross the Ukraine-Russia border with his column of tanks, personnel carriers and men without a shot being fired by the Russian troops defending the border
• The Wagner Group easily invested the city of Rostov on Don, the home of the Russian high command for Ukraine, again apparently without firing a shot. They left a covering screen to control the city, and went on their merry way
• They got to within 120 miles of the suburbs of Moscow before Putin finally cut a deal. He did so for a simple reason. Already embroiled in an unpopular war in Ukraine, the last thing he could afford was the imagery of regular army Russian troops opening fire on Russian prisoner mercenaries that he had authorized in order to protect the capitol city of Russia
• It has been publicly reported that when the agreement was reached, and the Wagner group retreated, they were cheered by the civilians in the towns they vacated, including Rostov on Don

All of which goes to make Putin the weakest, most ineffective tinpot dictator on the planet. Like Frankenstein he let his creature off of the table, and when it started ransacking the countryside, he couldn’t get it back again. And make no mistake about it. Despite media censorship, there’s no way he can core up the fact that Russian tanks took to the streets of Moscow to protect the city and the government from a rebel army of his own making.

And don’t make the mistake of thinking that Russian allies like Iran, Syria, China, North Korea, and even benign India aren’t watching this like a hawk. Example. Putin is bending over backwards to try to convince Xi to give him offensive weapons with which to prosecute his war in Ukraine. And now Putin has to cut a back room deal with some rogue pipsqueak with 25,000 men behind him, because Putin doesn’t have the balls to cut them down in the suburbs of Moscow. What a wuss!

But here’s the McGuffin. Yevgeny Prigozhin has been one of Putin’s most trusted advisors for years now. And now he turns rogue and wanted to challenge Putin directly. I have never seen or heard of a dictator that wasn’t totally paranoid. And now one of his closest advisors has marched against him. Who does he trust?

Which isn’t as paranoid as it sounds. Remember, the Wagner Group crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia without a shot being fired by regular Russian troops. The same thing goes with the investiture of Rostov on Don. And Russian citizens cheered them when they left. And I’m pretty sure that there were Russian military leaders who told Putin that everything was just hunky-dory.

Which makes Vladimir the most unstable, unpredictable, unhinged man alive. Because when it comes to armed conflict, Intelligence is king. And it’s incredibly obvious that Putin’s military intelligence regarding the Wagner Group was for sh*t. Which means that Putin is highly unlikely to trust the advice of anybody but himself. And did I mention? He has nukes. Don’t touch that dial.

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