No, no, no John. The dinosaurs had their day, they had their chance, and natural selection and evolution did away with them! Dr Ian Malcolm Jurassic Park
How many times do I have to say it? You never get a 2nd chance to make a 1st impression. That’s as true in politics as it is in everyday life, but often with more catastrophic professional consequences. And in politics I don’t mean the primaries, nor even the general election, simply because you have two competing sides blurring the issue with slogans and innuendo. I’m talking about the first two years of a presidency, or whatever office you won.
Look at 2000. George W What me worry? Bush lost the national vote, and it was only the Supreme Court that gifted him the presidency. And what was the first thing he did? Give a forward looking, compassionate, conciliatory inauguration speech in which he reached out to all of those who didn’t vote for him, and promised to work as hard for them as anybody else. Biden did it too. So did Clinton, Reagan, and George HW Bush. Your first move it make waves to listen to, and talk to voters who can make your reelection easier.
Don The Con Trump ran a 2016 campaign replete with racism, hatred, division, xenophobia, sexism and misogyny. None of it mattered, because he was an ass clown with no chance of winning. Until Vlad the Imp put his finger on the scale, and he won.
If ever any new President had a world class media and image rehab project on his hands, it was Trump. If he wanted go get reelected in 2020, starting with his inaugural address it should have been, God! What a wild ride! But I’m fin ally here now, and as President I govern for all people, not just my people.
What did we get instead? His now infamous American carnage inauguration address, followed by a Thank You American! Tour in which he threw red meat to the base, and one infamous rally where he literally told his own voters, Thanks for getting me elected, but I don’t need you anymore. I might need you again in four years if I run again, but I don’t need you now.
End result? Trump immediately started shedding the soft GOP, weak Democratic, and independent support that got him elected, he got clobbered by a 40 seat loss in the House in 2018, and lost his own office in 2020.
And I don’t want to hear any bullsh*t. Believe it or not, in 2020 Traitor Tot actually increased his popular vote count to 74 million votes. But his brand was so toxic that Biden easily lapped him, burying him under 81 million votes. Forget January 6th for a moment, does anybody remember the mob scene on the streets at the moment Biden was declared the winner? Crowds flooded the streets from offices and businesses, kiss each other and dancing in ecstasy as cars driving by honked. The national nightmare was finally over.
I chose my teaser quote carefully. In 2016 Trump was already a political dinosaur, but he managed to stop just short of the edge of the tar pit. But in the 1st two years he stepped forward and put his first foot into the tar, and spent the next two years putting the 2nd foot in trying to pull the first one out. And in 2020 it was FLOOP! The dinosaur had his day, and evolution and natural selection did away f=with him.
And the entire GOP has spent the last 3 1/2 years desperately trying to build some warped political Jurassic Park that will turn their brontosaurus into a velociraptor. But it isn’t working. For the simple reason that Donald Trump was what Paul Simon called A One Trick Pony. And everybody is tired of the trick.
Worse yet, it isn’t even the same trick anymore. Think about it. In 2016, and again in 2020, trump campaigned almost exclusively aimed at the downtrodden, turned off, non voting lower and lower middle class. And his message to them was actually one of Hope and promise. What did he run on? Get me elected, and you’ll be farting through silk. We’ll put all of those immigrants and black people back in their place, and what they’re taking will be yours! You’ll be a part of the new power elite! And even though he revved the die hard base to a froth, he had shed so many weak and independent voters that even after squeezing out every last MAGA vote, he still lost by 7 million votes!
And what is he running on in 2024? Well, as near as I can tell, political satirist Jon Stewart summed it up perfectly when he referred to him as a Whiny. Little. Bitch. In 2016 and 2020 it was his followers who were the whiner bags full of self rage and grievance, and it was Trump who would be their tireless class warrior, getting them their long overdue satisfaction.
But in 2024 it’s His Lowness who is full of self pity and grievance. He’s now a convicted criminal and a civilly liable repeat sexual offender. But even though Trump is not only totally transactional, but also an extreme narcissist, even his message to his base is killing him with moderates and independents, and the dumb sh*t doesn’t even see it.
What’s Trump’s favorite rally line? When they come, they’re not coming for me, they’re coming for you, and I just happen to be standing in the way. And I’ll always keep standing in their way for you! Whoa! Nothing like a big, fat, healthy dose of martyrdom to cement your bond with your rabid base.
If you’re shooting for martyrdom, your ultimate goal is Jesus Christ. But because Trump is a religious imbecile who can inscribe everything he knows about religion on the head of a pin, and still have room for everything he knows about fancy French wine, he doesn’t get it. But as every moderate and independent voter with even a passing knowledge of religious history can immediately tell you, after the crucifixion, Jesus Christ was still dead! And all his followers lad left to cling to was faith.
I’ll close with this. The first debate, if the chickensh*t bothers to show up is 10 days from now. Some pundits are claiming that the rules that were negotiated actually favor Trump. The reason is that once a candidate’s two minutes are up, their Mic goes dead. The reasoning is that Trump actually wants to give Biden a full 45 minutes to for a verbal gaffe or two he can capitalize on in rallies and advertising.
I disagree, and here’s why. Trump has the attention span of a gamboling puppy. He is mentally incapable of shutting up for two minutes. Especially if he’s attacked by Biden, he will immediately lean forward to the mic to respond. And when that doesn’t work, he’ll start to yell and bellow, hoping to get his words over Biden’s mic, and coming off looking like a congenital idiot.
There is still a long way to go. But I have always thought that Trump’s most mortal enemy is Trump. He got the gift of a lifetime for a 3rd rate grifter in 2016, then immediately turned around and pissed it away. And he’s done nothing for the last seven years but piss away every advantage he’s ever had. You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
“…And he’s done nothing for the last seven years but piss away every advantage he’s ever had.”
Which is why I’m concerned about how they will try to affect this election. And why I’m so heartened by hearing about the Democratic Party’s plans to counter their BS by being proactive instead of reactive this time.
I cannot fathom how anyone could vote for him but then I couldn’t fathom such a thing in 2016. Granted, it was an E.C. victory in ’16 but it still put him in the w.h. In 2020 he lost both the popular vote and the E.C. but more people voted for him apparently than did in ’16 (thankfully many millions more voted for President Biden). As you say, he lost the regular republicans, a lot of the indies, and who knows who else but he didn’t lose his base and in fact grew it somehow. Not sure how given his dismal performance in the w.h. but his inaugural speech did not hurt him with his base.
I too worry about how much cheating will be done by state legislatures in red states, at polling places, hell, I’m not even sure the msm can be trusted to give accurate vote tallies-I damned sure don’t trust the nyt or wapo; not any more. And I damned sure don’t trust the s.c. to pull something out of their asses to hand the whole shebang to Von Shitzinpants for no reason, constitutional or otherwise. F.F.S. two of those morons, alito and thomas, are just making shit up now or going to obscure people from very long ago for opinions/reasons (dobbs -alito’s witch guy): it’s not just precedent be damned it’s now the constitution be damned. I cannot figure out how six of them could be so stupid and not see a bump stock for what it is not and what it is–it isn’t a f*cking firearm nor is it necessary to use one to operate a firearm properly/effectively (it makes it very ineffective aim-wise as in there is no aiming with it, just pointing the gun in a general direction) but there IS one use for it and that is to quickly kill and injure many people in a short amount of time without having any skills with firearms. Logic and btw a strict reading of the 2nd were not used in that one. There was no rational reason for them to decide it that way. None.
I vacillate between thinking he’s pissed off too many voters to win this election and thinking there are way too many evil actors way too close to being able to give him the w.h. Yeah, the guy is in the throws of dementia and dumber than a box of rocks but he was an idiot and a failure in ’16 so who knows?