It is likely only we in the United States can be on the edge of World War III while still so caught up in domestic politics that almost no one really knows just how close. This morning, Vladimir Putin authorized the launch of what was either an ICBM (First ever used in combat) or what looked enough like an ICBM such that Russia first notified the U.S. that the missile wasn’t delivering nuclear weapons on Ukraine. Again, this is a first – and a major escalation.
Look at the power on display here:
Here is an angle of Russia's ICBM hitting Ukraine this morning, pretty scary right. Very little Chance for air defences intercepting thempic.twitter.com/yS1NzJU01E
— A Pimp Named Slickback (@amolo_hillary) November 21, 2024
Yes, those are independent warheads raining down from just one missile with what looks like utter devastation at a level rarely seen in history. There are some who say that it wasn’t technically an ICBM but again, it was close enough that the Russians didn’t take the chance of having the U.S. respond with overwhelming force.
“A U.S. official said that Washington was pre-notified by Russia shortly before its strike.”
– Reuters
Best sign yet that Russia still doesn’t want to use nuclear weapons – deconfliction channels are still open and being used.
— Angry Staffer (@Angry_Staffer) November 21, 2024
Great. They don’t “want” to use nuclear weapons and yet want to look like they are ready. Even if they have no plans to do so it certainly doesn’t preclude the chance that mistakes get made – many wars have started over an initial misunderstanding, nor does it mean that a larger war cannot open up even without nuclear weapons.
From The New York Times, this is far more serious than likely any of us appreciate:
Mr. Putin also asserted that Russia had the right to strike the military facilities of countries “that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities.”
His warning came hours after Russia’s military fired a nuclear-capable ballistic missile at Ukraine that Western officials and analysts said was meant to instill fear in Kyiv and the West. Though the missile carried only conventional warheads, using it signaled that Russia could strike with nuclear weapons if it chooses.
The U.S. had to know that this was a distinct possibility when it authorized Ukraine to use American-made missiles to strike deep into Russia for the first time, as they did just days ago. Now this. It is hard to imagine a more tense time in recent history.
The launch caused Poland – a NATO member, to put fighters in the sky over its borders. Given the NATO participation, it means that the U.S. had to be on alert, too – in case something happened with the Polish forces. From Newsweek’s report:
The Polish military said early on Thursday that “Polish and allied aircraft have begun operating in our airspace” after Moscow attacked Ukrainian territory, including in the west of the country.
Warsaw’s armed forces “activated all available forces and resources,” including scrambling fighter jets and putting ground-based air-defense systems and radars on “the highest state of readiness,” the military said.
Highest state of readiness. Again, that means the U.S. is on alert. Highest states of readiness, including patrols of airspace near borders with bombs dropping create those extremely dangerous situations in which a couple of shits fired in fear lead to all-out war. What if the Russians had shot down two Polish planes? That is an attack on NATO. The U.S. would be obliged to respond. How would we do so?
And why now? It is no coincidence that it happens on the heels of the election. The situation is such that some obvious conclusions can be reached. First, Ukraine is likely and rightly terrified and desperate. They have to know that American support is almost surely to dry up as President-elect Trump transitions into office with Republicans at the controls. It is still shocking that the Republican party seems to appease Russia. But then it is led by Donald Trump who acts like he has no choice but to appease Putin. Acts like it, at the very least.
Second, the Biden administration is firmly pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia and almost surely believes that it is now or never to put Ukraine in a position to at least come to terms with Russia in a somewhat favorable way. The Biden administration surely believes that they have about 30 days to drive Russia back on its heels and then attempt to broker a peaceful solution.
Next, NATO must feel threatened to the point that it, too – is now or never. Europe (And likely Canada) will almost surely stick together because Russia is on their border. They don’t have the luxury of allowing NATO to become a political football. They see the changes coming and surely want Russia as weak as possible going into the next administration.
Meanwhile, Russia is acting aggressively but that might well be a testament to how much it stands to lose in the near term. If it were sitting in a position of true strength, there would be no need to respond while President Biden is still in office and instead wait on Trump. They did not. This likely indicates that Russia knows that a full court press is coming, one that they can’t so easily fight off. Putin also surely knows that American withdrawal would lead Europe to unify that much more. The only thing pushing Russia to the table prior to Trump taking office is to cut their losses now over the next six weeks and take their issues off Trump’s plate in the near term, knowing they’re better off in the long term.
And then there is the Trump transition that has never shown all that much interest in foreign affairs and what interest it does have is – somewhat understandably, focused more on China.
The situation with Russia really can’t be considered without also looking at China. It is China that is using its immense wealth and human resources to build up the world’s second largest military even as Russia saps. China has the modern space program that threatens our infrastructure in a way that Russia simply cannot – China can shoot down satellites with ease, it’s much more difficult for Russia. And China shouldn’t be a partisan issue. Its government is brutal in ways few have seen, pummeling its own marginalized ethnic groups and a massive working-slave class. No one should be on the side of this Chinese government, and everyone on the side of the Chinese people themselves.
So while China is ascendant, Russia is trying to hold water and must grab what it can with an outgoing Biden administration and a newly committed but vastly weaker and isolated Europe. It is unlikely that anyone wants a wide-scale war. Conventional weapons are such that we’re in an almost Mutual Assured Destruction situation anyway, even without resorting to nuclear weapons. Having said that, Putin desperately wants his Eastern Europe bloc back, and the EU is not going to budge based on the economic interests alone, never mind right and wrong – which does still matter. Thus the tensions go up even without considering us.
Last, as much as the new administration might want to hide in isolation, focused more on deporting a massive chunk of a needed workforce and staring at China, there is no way for this country to not be hugely impacted by a wider conflict in Europe. Pretending otherwise is silly. Whether there is anything that Trump, Hegseth, and Gabbard (Among many others) want to do against Putin is another question. Even if the new administration doesn’t want to do much to oppose Russia, basic economics might lead to pressure within the administration to at least do something.
It all leads to a world much closer to the edge. If Russia acts aggressively toward Poland – which Putin would love – or even just opens up a massive escalation in Ukraine, it would be the perfect time for China to move on Taiwan. If it were to happen, that would essentially be the two-front war that many have long thought impossible even though the military has long believed it to be necessary as the basic defense posture.
This is probably the only country that can afford to turn inward in its own politics while the world continues to destabilize. But we’re also more than capable of thinking about two things at once. It is probably best to become increasingly aware of the fact that this is real and really dangerous.
Wars do start on accident at times, but only when in a position to have accidents. We definitely find ourselves in that position.
God Bless: I can be reached at [email protected] and @JasonMiciak and on Blue Sky
Maybe it’s time for Ukraine to launch a full-out strike on the Kremlin itself. And a few other choice targets in the heart of Moscow. No warning until AFTER the targets are destroyed.