I had a range of reaction to yesterday’s news about a Cease Fire in Ukraine. First I assumed it was an extremely-in-bad-taste item from The Onion. But I checked it out and learned there’s an actual proposal on the table. Ukrainian President Zelensky appears to be okay with what U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has come up with and Trump also approves. (So he says) So now the proverbial ball is in Putin’s court and as of mid-afternoon I’m not getting much in the way of news about Pootie’s reaction to this development.
I read an article from CNN earlier which outlined what’s been proposed, and agreed to by the U.S. and Ukraine. However there are problems I can see from the outset. As I mentioned Putin hasn’t given jack in the way of his thinking on the proposal. Second, even if he agrees, I’d bet my life Russian troops will break the cease fire. It’s what, over five hundred miles of front lines? Plenty of spots for “local” “skirmishes” to break out. Russia will start some sh*t and of course claim Ukrainian troops started shooting first. But it’s for sure Russia will try and see how much it can get away with and if they push too much no more Cease Fire anywhere! Then there’s the fact I don’t trust Trump any more than I do Putin. Still, on the surface the agreement is a positive development:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Ukraine had accepted a 30-day ceasefire proposed by the United States, following critical peace talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.
The ceasefire proposal accepted by Ukraine covers the entire front line of the fighting with Russia, not just the air and sea, Zelensky said after the more than eight-hour long meeting.
“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step, and the United States of America must convince Russia to do so,” Zelensky said, adding that the ceasefire would start the moment Moscow agrees to it.
The United States said in a joint statement with Ukraine following the meeting in Jeddah that it would “immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine.” A Ukrainian official confirmed on Tuesday that US security assistance to Ukraine had resumed.
Again, all of that seems great but the silence from Putin/Russia is deafening. As for that last tidbit about resuming security assistance to Ukraine if I were them I’d take it with a grain of salt. ‘Trust but verify’ and all that. I also have questions about the sudden flip of Trump abandoning Ukraine to trying to promote a Cease Fire. It’s not like with Gabbard and others he’s not well plugged in to the Kremlin. I can’t help but wonder if Putin himself needs a brief stand-down. I recall a recent report where Ukraine forces conducted a major strike on a crucial factory (makes parts for Russian military aircraft – and steady supply of parts is needed to keep military aircraft flying) some 1,200 miles into Russia. It’s not the only such attack. Putin has to be worried about Ukrainian Special Forces now entrenched in his country and what they might do moving forward. He’s also got other problems. So HE might be the one that wants to buy some time, and slipped word to Trump to buy him some. Like I said, I don’t trust either Putin or Trump and Zelensky shouldn’t either.
It’s worth the time to read the linked article. It contains a lot of important information. However it’s words on a page, as is the Cease Fire proposal. Without true conviction from Trump and his administration to actually help enforce a Cease Fire it’s just words on a page. How serious IS Trump about this? We simply don’t know. Here’s what we do know:
Putin/Russia launched an unprovoked war to take over Ukraine. What Russia did was illegal under international law, as has been their conduct of the war. THAT has been such that with all the War Crimes there should be a Nuremburg type tribunal to hold people to account when this whole tragedy is over. But Russia continues to target hospitals, schools, apartment buildings and other civilian targets in Ukraine FAR more than Ukrainian forces. We know Russia expected a quick capitulation by Ukraine, and that within hours or a few days Zelensky would be dead (if he didn’t manage to escape somehow and flee the country) and within a few weeks Russia would control the whole of Ukraine.
We know it hasn’t worked out anything like what Putin so confidently thought it would. After three years of brutal fighting Russia controls more of Ukraine than it did at the start of the war (the Crimean Peninsula and two disputed provinces in eastern Ukraine) but not all that much more. They are however solidly dug in along the border between Ukraine and Russia and their “land bridge to Crimea”, a strip of land bordering the Black Sea. We know Putin has not won, which for him his almost as bad as losing. Ukraine has been devastated by Russia but Russia has sustained grievous losses too. If not so much to towns and infrastructure in Russia, Putin’s forces have sustained far more wounded and dead.
Also, this war THEY started has cost Russia financially, both in hard currency and lost markets. Not to mention the loss of face that it’s once vaunted and “fearsome” military wasn’t so much “all that” after all. Russia still has some capable troops and equipment in their own eastern region as they fear China might get frisky. Other than that they are down to using mostly WWII era stuff. Not that the artillery isn’t plenty effective, and so are the drones they are getting from Iran and others. But the plain fact is that Russia can’t win. Even if the U.S. yanked every bit of support Ukraine will get help from NATO and the EU – more than enough to make Russia experience something worse than they did in Afghanistan!
Everyone, and I mean everyone wants this war to be over. Putin’s problem is he’s not going to get anything close to what he told his own people Russia would get even if Trump manages to hand Ukraine to him on a silver platter. (Remember what I said about NATO and the EU – and Ukrainians have hatred of Russia in their DNA) Ukraine wants Russia to pay to rebuild their shattered country. And return P.O.W.s. And kidnapped Ukrainians, especially children. AND Russian troops gone from every square foot of Ukrainian soil. Will they get all that? They damn well should, but realistically speaking they won’t. The rest of the world, including and especially the United States just wants the war over. There are other issues including the powder keg in the middle east to deal with after all.
Perhaps Trump realized that yanking support for Ukraine wouldn’t lead to a quick collapse. Europe is working overtime to step up. It’s also worth noting that a) Winter is almost over, and b) Europe has largely weaned itself from the need to purchase energy from Russia. That particular tool of blackmail in Putin’s toolbox has been whittled down from a sledgehammer to a six-inch long rock hammer like you saw in The Shawshank Redemption. Trump was I think stunned that instead of support for Zelinsky and Ukraine collapsing after the Oval Office mugging the free world was rallying for Zelensky and criticizing HIM. Within hours. To add insult to injury, the cherry on top so to speak the King of England basically ‘bItch-slapped’ Trump by spending a whole day with Zelensky at Sandringham. That friends was an “Uh Oh” for Trump, and indication to him that while elected Republicans fear MAGA the free world and its leader don’t!
Suspending intel sharing with Ukraine might well have had consequences Trump didn’t anticipate. Our allies have already been wary of sharing with the new Trump administration. It’s not hard to imagine some quiet discussions having taken place behind the scenes from allies that if that’s how the U.S. wants to be then we’re on our own. That likely hurts us worse than it hurts them, and not having to worry about Trump sharing highly sensitive information THEY need kept secret with Russia (something he started doing within weeks of assuming office the first time) they can more confidently share with each other.
So, I can easily see where this proposal is nothing more than a ploy by Trump, offered with Putin’s blessing if not upon his orders. All three countries could use a break from what’s been going on. I just worry about what Putin might be cooking up that Trump won’t be able to stop even if he wants to. Stay tuned because I think there’s simply way to much we don’t know about what the hell is going on.
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How can anyone have any agreement of any sort at all with such multipley proven untrustworthy characters as Trump or Putin?
You can’t.
It seems to me Denis that you’re letting your disdain for President Trump cloud your thoughts here. Zelensky swallowed his pride & rightfully apologized, Trump promptly resumed weapons and intelligence to Ukraine putting the pressure on Russia. Rubio even stated that if the ceasefire isn’t accepted then we know where the problem lies. Furthermore Trump suggested that he may have to impose some very strict sanctions on Russia. Can’t we just have that? Oh yeah I forgot, Trump’s a Russian asset.
Dude, you show us just ONE time that Drumpf did ANYTHING that is NOT worthy of absolute disdain by people who are not a part of his cult. This is a “man” who openly spoke of his SEXUAL desire for his own daughter, a “man” who buried an EX-WIFE on a golf course, a “man” who STOLE GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS and pretended that *he* was the victim.
Zelenskyy had NOTHING for which he needed to apologize (and I certainly don’t recall any such “apology” being made) and Drumpf did NOT “promptly” do any of that OF HIS OWN FREE WILL (not to mention there certainly wasn’t any sort of news coverage that showed Drumpf doing any of that at all). Whatever Rubio has said is MEANINGLESS; he’s Drumpf’s bitch and the world knows it (if he steps too far over the line by saying something that Drumpf doesn’t like, he’s out of the job). As for these “sanctions,” where and when did Drumpf ever “suggest” he’d do that? That fat blowhard has been eager to DROP ALL SANCTIONS against Moscow since he got back into office but he knows that even he can’t do that without getting something from Putin in return; there are still too many GOPers who recognize that RUSSIA is the real enemy (especially as long as Putin’s in charge).
So, go back to Redstate or OANN or whatever far-right-wing nutjob “news” source you get off with. No one here needs the pile of manure you spread with your worship of Drumpf.
Wow, what an amazingly ignorant rant. Precisely wrong on everything. Impressive.
Reminds me of something the late great Ronald Reagan once said,
It’s not that that liberals don’t know anything, they just know so much that isn’t true.
Why, you little genius! Run along and play now.
Yes, I think “this proposal is nothing more than a ploy by Trump, offered with Putin’s blessing if not upon his orders.”
I can assure you, though, that involved trusts anybody, so don’t worry about that.
What actually happened was that Ukraine decided they really had to get out of Kursk, and they did, with their army intact.
I think you’re also right about the problem with the hold on Intel sharing. Unfortunately for Trump (and in a very direct way, for Musk), that ship has sailed bye bye. I’m sure like almost everything else going on, Trump did it because Putin told him to do it, but it was another stupid move. It was such a disgusting punch in the gut to Ukraine and to Europe, they are moving as fast as possible to bring in their own satellite intel, Trump or no Trump. Seriously, they can never afford to trust the U.S. again, unless we can elect leaders very, very different from this maniac. And I hope we can, for that and any other reasons But right now, Europe is under no illusions.
“that nobody involved trusts anybody … ” ” for that and many other reasons.” Sorry.
Well, that didn’t take long.
Russia will not agree to a 30-day ceasefire because it will just enable Ukraine to regroup and rearm said Russian MP Viktor Sobolev.He added that a temporary ceasefire is unacceptable and only plays into Ukraine’s hands.
https://censor.net/en/news/3540617/sobolev-says-russia-will-not-agree-to-30-day-ceasefire
But actually this is very telling. In discussions I’ve read or participated in, most commenters felt that a cease fire would offer advantages to both sides and it was just a question of which side would use the time to greater advantage. The fact that Russia definitely feels that it would be a lot more of an advantage to Ukraine tells us a lot. i don’t think this is any surprise to Ukraine, and actually it’s confirmatory evidence, along with a number of other pieces of evidence, that they are succeeding.
Or maybe the Russians are just lying, as always — this time more to themselves. Do they really think that if they keep up their attacks another 30 days victory will be theirs? They just won back a tiny piece of their own country that Ukraine had held for over six months because Ukraine decided it was no longer strategically worth the effort to try to hold it. But they accomplished a lot over those last six months.