I know, for the half of the country that had the good sense not to vote for Trump the news usually sucks. I always say take your entertainment where you can find it and speaking for myself I derive great enjoyment when I learn about things that will pierce the tissue paper thin veneer of Trump’s fee-fees. Okay, so it doesn’t take much since Trumpty-Dumpty’s ego is so fragile but he craves worship. It wounds him when he doesn’t get it and it just about kills him when there’s credible data saying they think he’s a big, steaming pile of brown excrement.
Yes, we have some new polling that will have Trump aides breaking the glass on ‘doctor’ Ronny Jacksons “In Case of Emergency’ cabinet of special happy pills to calm down the Orange Orangutan in the Oval Office. A new look at so-called swing states, a collection of states where modern Presidential elections are won or lost shows Trump in deep trouble. And with him the GOP despite Team Trump’s claims he’s got overwhelming public support for everything he’s doing. Well, perhaps in the halls of power in Russia, China, North Korea and other dictatorships he actually does rate as highly favorable. Here in the U.S.? Not so much. In fact not at all!
Keep in mind Trump and his constant lying. Most, if not damned near all the time the truth is the opposite of what he claims. That’s a given when it comes to Trump touting his polling numbers. He makes stuff up out of thin air and tries to buttress it with anecdotes about ‘big strong men with tears in their eyes’ walking up to him (Ilke the Secret Service would allow it, or Trump would tolerate actual regular working Americans in his presence) thanking him for this or that. Trump has an obvious “tell” – the thicker he spreads this bullshit the more you know HE knows he’s spouting bullshit!
I’d hate to have been a ketchup bottle within Trump’s reach this morning when he got the news, which you can read all about in this article from Alternet that his polling numbers have CRATERED in all of those seven swing states he bragged about winning. Granted, he barely won in most of those states but for a brief time after being sworn in he had approval ratings in the fifties.
That as you know didn’t last long as the public, too many of whom had been whipped into an anti-Democratic fervor for having ‘shoved senile, old Joe Biden’ at us and then let him anoint his successor realized two things. TRUMP was the doddering old fool who had lost all mental capacity and was physically falling apart, and Kamala Harris was superior to Trump in every way. (Except for being a woman, and not even a white one)
With horror the public, even many conservative leaning independents realized Trump meant what he said about the people he wanted to appoint to critical positions in his new administration. Any thoughts that like the first time around that for all the talk about shaking things up Trump would have at least a few ‘adults in the room’ turned into “OMFG, he’s appointing HIM? And HIM? And HER? And HER?” and so on. As a result Trump’s approval started to slide. It moved into negative territory.
A look at swing state approval was done in the spring and it was bad news for Trump. Now, any given poll is just a snapshot of things at the time it’s taken. However, regular polling and multiple outlets getting similar results paints a picture that as a painting is art. It reflect how the artist sees the subject but most portraits from good artists show someone pretty much accurately. And similar portraits (the subject in the same clothing and in the same setting) painted many months apart that look similar are truly informative.
Civiqs, a mainstream and respected outfit looked at this in May and Trump was in strong negative territory. Now, in early October as the linked article tells us data journalist G. Elliott Morris has taken a look at recent numbers and written about it on Substack. As I’ve said he reports Trump’s numbers are in his (Trump’s) fake gold toilet in every one of these critical swing states. They were bad in May and they are bad now. Given what’s to come it’s hard to see things improving for Trump but let’s look at where things stand now that the predicted shutdown has started:
According to Morris’s analysis, Trump’s approval rating is -10 in Wisconsin, a state he won with 0.9 percent of the vote share. In Michigan, a state he won with by 1.4 percent, his approval rating is at -12 percentage points.
“In Pennsylvania, his 1.7 percent lead in 2024 has declined to -13 percentage points and his approval rating in Georgia is -11 points, a drop from 2024 when he won the state with a 2.2 percent margin,” Morris noted. Although Trump won Nevada by 3.1 points in 2024, “his rating there has since plummeted to -12 percentage points.”
In North Carolina, his 3.2 percent margin has declined to -9 points and inArizona, which Trump won by 5.5 points in 2024, his net approval rating stands at -7 percentage points.
This polling, Newsweek says, matches a May survey by Civiqs which also showed that Trump’s approval rating had declined in these states.
Naturally there’s pushback from the WH. Spokeperson Abagail Jackson trotted out a ridiculous approval rating of 57% for Trump which is WAY outside all mainstream outlets including Fox. Rasmussen is the source in case you’re wondering. They are known for having a conservative lean/bias and especially now I have no doubt if Trump leaned on them to do a poll that would have a result he can brag about they’d have no problem giving him the polling version of a handjob.
Well, as I said it’s a looking at poll numbers at this point in time. However that it reflects similar findings from almost five months ago is a strong indicator Trump, and with him the GOP are in deep doo-doo. We will have to see how the shutdown plays out and who the public ultimately blames. However even if a majority of Americans overlook the FACT that the GOP controls the WH and both chambers of Congress and swallows the GOP bullshit it’s all the Democrat’s fault the fact is accountability is coming.
If the GOP refuses to compromise upwards of ten million (perhaps twenty) Americans will no longer be able to afford their ACA (Obamacare) health coverage. Including millions of MAGAs. Hundreds of small town/rural hospitals, again mostly in MAGA territory will be forced to close. OTHER Americans will see their own health care insurance premiums jump. Senate Republicans know this, and so at least 30 House Republicans who live in districts decided by five points or less in 2024.
Here’s the really bad news for the GOP however. Even if sane and semi-responsible Republicans cut some kind of deal on funding health care Trump and his Project 2025 guy are, literally as I write this working to fire thousands, hell tens of thousands of federal workers. Most will eventually get their jobs back but the disruption will be felt of a very long time. Then their inflation which despite all Trumpty’s promises to eliminate it on Day One is going UP instead. With little prospect of under Trump policies coming down.
On top of all THAT there are the Trump tariffs that have contributed to that inflation. Does anyone think if the courts rule them invalid it will fix the problem? Trump will appeal all the way to SCOTUS which might take its sweet ass time before ruling. Even IF the power to impose tariffs rests with Congress will the GOP join Democrats and take back some of the way too much power the Legislative has ceded to the Executive Branch inflation won’t end. At least right away.
Does ANYONE think that if they don’t have to pay tariffs anymore those businesses paying them will pass all the savings along to consumers? We’ll see Trump go on TV and admit he’s not up to the job and never has been and holding up his signed resignation for the camera before we’d see businesses lower prices. Think about something you’ve seen all your life. Gas prices. Any increase in the world market price for oil and prices at the pump jump IMMEDIATELY. Same with every year when the date to switch from straight gasoline to the ten percent ethonol blend. Gas already in storage tanks at stations or sitting in pipelines and storage tanks that was purchased and refined at the old prices jumps in price.
When the price of a barrel of oil FALLS, or when the date for switching back to straight gasoline comes around the sellers take their sweet ass time lowering prices. During COVID we’ve learned that sellers took advantage of general shortages and tacked on an extra four percent or so just because they could. They STILL hadn’t fully done away with it most of the time during the election and afterwards. My point is that inflation isn’t going down to 2-3 percent anytime soon or even before the midterms. Not with Trump and his policies in the WH.
The bottom line is that Trump’s got approval problems and he knows it. I keep saying he doesn’t know much but he can still mostly understand poll numbers and more importantly which outfits are bullshit and which are credible. He’s had a bad week and it’s STILL not over. I’m sure Trump wants nothing more than to get out of town and play golf. He might do just that but the self-created messes he’s made will still be there when he heads back to DC.
Call me mean but if Trump can’t relax and enjoy his golf because of this latest polling news I’ll get a kick out of it! You should too. Given the pain and suffering he’s inflicted and intends to inflict his fat orange ass doesn’t deserve a moment’s peace.
That all only matters if we still have actual elections.
No matter his numbers, our only salvation with Donald lies in his stupidity, the stupidity of his advisors, and the actuarial tables
Never forget that all those incompetent unqualified corrupt sycophants in his cabinet were approved by Congress. They advised and consented. Trump picked the worst available scum and the system designed to protect us from just that excess failed us, because the people entrusted with manning that defence refused to do their duty. The shame of Trumpism is on the whole GOP, not just on the MAGAt loonies.