Trump Trial Hasn’t ‘Moved the Needle.’ But Trump Will Do It Himself

Let met start by saying I agree with the article Ursula posted here on Politizoom earlier about polling. It’s crap. When pollsters can’t create a solid representative sample, and the fact is it’s almost impossible to do anymore the results won’t be worth much. Garbage in – Garbage out as the saying goes. Still, most people look at what’s been reported this spring and think ‘What the hell?’ and that includes Republicans. At least when it comes to the Presidential race. It’s especially puzzling given all that’s gone on in Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan. Well, let’s take a look at why, other than polling models being off Trump leads Biden in so many key states.

First of all, even in the good old days when polling by reputable outlets was solid the plain fact is that most voters haven’t been paying much attention.  Sure, what polls said at this time of year frequently turned out to be indicative of how things would go in November but not always. As much as things have changed, the fact is that while most people have a general idea at this point (and by now we usually know who the major Party nominees will be) things can change. I’m in my mid sixties now and have seen it happen. So, one old adage might still be holding true even in this new era, the Trump era. The election really doesn’t begin until AFTER the conventions.

Now let’s look at where things currently stand. This article from Yahoo News gives some breakdown about American’s attitudes regarding Trump’s legal problems. Including some changing views about Trump’s guilt or innocence since the trial began and also how it might factor into how they vote. It’s worth the time to read but I want to focus on just one number. I heard a pundit mention it this afternoon. My reaction was “Naw. Where did he get THAT from?” so a little while ago I decided to so some checking. That’s when I found the article I’ve linked to.  Suddenly, all these polls that don’t make sense make perfect sense.

Only 16% of Americans have been following Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan very closely. It does on to say only roughly half (48%) are following the trial either very or somewhat closely.

Chances are if you’re reading this you are one of the half of the country in that second group, the one that’s been paying attention. I’ll venture some of you even are following the trial VERY closely. Perhaps not as much as those of us who write for this site or others you might follow but trying to pay as much attention to things as you can. The fact is, most people live lives that don’t allow them to scan their computers for news while the TV is on. People have jobs, family and friends. So while the Trump trial is a big story on the news, that’s as much as most people have a chance to learn about it. A few minutes of news reports and maybe reading an article or two they see online. Or one that’s been recommended to them.

When you look at things that way it’s easier to understand why things have yet to “break through” to most Americans. They hear “both sides” type of stuff and simply don’t have time, even if they’ve got the inclination to first pay close attention and then do some fact checking of their own.  The whole thing is background noise to half of Americans. And for the half of us paying at least moderate attention relatively few of us have the time to learn and sort out a ton of details.  Just as in the case with most Presidential elections. At this time of year people just don’t have time to dig in and be sure of who they think should be President.

Well, that could all change very soon. If Trump is convicted of felonies by the end of next week (or early in the following one) it’s a whole new ballgame. It’s not certain he’ll be convicted. Perhaps not even highly likely but even Trump and conservatives think there’s a pretty good chance that’s what will happen.  THAT my friends will be huge news. Lasting news for multiple cycles. Hearing Trump referred to as a convicted felon, much as media bosses will coach the “talent” to go easy on using such terminology will sink in a bit. Naturally, the news bosses will be pushing the “talent” to move on to other things.

There ARE other things happening after all. The military campaign going on in Gaza. The war in Ukraine. The potential political changes (upheaval) in Iran. Schumer is forcing another vote on the border bill Trump killed.  And since Biden is ramping up his campaign appearances being Biden with his lifelong stuffer there will be verbal miscues the “talent” can be ordered to make into a BFD.  So the news bosses who so desperately want their horserace, for the election to be close will be thinking this will all die down within a couple of weeks if Trump is convicted.

And they are WRONG! Bigly. SCOTUS will issue it’s ruling on the Presidential Immunity appeal. However it comes out there will be another round of Trump having been convicted set of news cycles. With the talk about how the Manhattan trial will be the only case that made it to trial. And the dudes in the executive suites and board rooms will make like Trump and decorate their walls with ketchup, or whatever.  But that’s not the worst of it for them. If he’s convicted, there is ONE person who will NOT shut up about it.

Donald J. Trump.

Every  Single  Day we’ll have an aggrieved Trump sounding forth on Truth Social, going on Fox, doing as many rallies he can afford and has the energy to do (probably less than one a week) with the same tired old “hits.” WITCH HUNT! RIGGED! BIDEN’S/DOJ’s FAULT! And so on. Day after day Trump will be shouting about his conviction from the rooftops. And all those voters who haven’t paid much attention will start contemplating the fact that a major Political Party is running a candidate who’s a convicted felon. From there, and especially during and after the conventions they will be thinking long and hard about having a convicted felon as President.

Trump and his team probably have internal polling that shows a conviction with cost him with a worrying number of MAGAs or Evangelicals. (Some are both) Even a loss of five percent of them would be devastating. And since Trump will most definitely not STFU about having been convicted at least double, probably triple that number will (secretly) check out non-Fox, or Newsmax or other RWNJ sources and learn there is a whole different world out there. One with very different facts than the ones they’ve been spoon fed. The majority will reject the facts and maintain their blind faith in Trump. However as I said even five percent saying to themselves ‘Damn. How could I have supported him all this time? Well, not anymore!’  Not that they’ll vote for Biden.  No way. They’ll either vote for someone else, or not vote at all, at least on the Presidential line on their ballot.

Trump simply won’t be able to handle it if convicted. He will talk about it and loudly every day and FORCE voters to confront the fact he’s a convicted felon. That’s not going to play well with Independents for sure. Part of Trump knows this without being told, and for damned sure his advisors will be telling him to focus on other things. But he’s Trump. He simply will NOT be able to let it go.

Because of that, Trump himself will engineer his own defeat. The trial and the coverage hasn’t moved the proverbial needle, but not to worry. Trump will take care of that all by himself. He just won’t like the direction the needle moves towards.

Support the site with a subscription today and see no more ads!

Go Ad-free Now!