Be careful what you wish for
It’s funny when you think about it. Joe Biden and Trump have this really weird, almost sado-mas symbiotic relationship with each other. Poll after poll shows that nobody with a voters ID card wants either one of them on the ballot. And yet poll after poll shows that the only one Biden can beat is Trump, and the only one Trump can beat is Biden. Yhey’ve got this strange Grumpy Old Men thing going.
That being said, it leaves Traitor Tot trying to walk a tightrope that Biden doesn’t have to worry about. Thanks to MAGA, Biden already knows Trump will be on the ballot in November, even if he’s running from a cell on Rikers Island. Biden can hammer him all he wants, has, and will. Trump on the other hand, during the primaries had to walk a tightrope. He had to bash Biden enough to keep the Trombies jazzed, slap him down enough to try to get some of the weaker Biden supporters to flee to RFK Jr, but not cripple him so bad that he couldn’t make it to the Democratic convention.
You think that Trump won the debate? Think again my friends. During the debate, focus groups of undecided voters with little clickers to express their approval or disapproval, Biden went up and down, but every damn time Traitor Tot opened his mouth, he cratered. While Biden did himself no favors, post debate focus groups showed that while Biden disappointed, he didn’t actively drive anybody irrevocably away. Trump on the other hand kept reminding everybody why they swore off of him permanently.
Now for the McGuffin. Team Biden pushed for an early debate for one reason. To humiliate His Lowness right before he went into his nominating convention. Instead, to Trump’s utter terror, Biden’s performance was so disjointed and febrile that there are now multiple high ranking DNC members and donors who are calling for Biden to drop out of the race!
NOOOOO!!! That’s the last thing Trump needs. A younger, quicker opponent with sharper elbows will eat Trump’s lunch, and he knows it. Now, instead of piling on Biden at rallies and on social media, El Pendejo Ex Presidente is soft pedaling Biden’s cringe worthy performance, calling him a dangerous opponent. Trump will give Biden a free lifetime membership to Mar-A-Slobo to keep him on the ballot.
Look, first let me make this crystal clear, and then we’ll move on to some actual numbers, data and sh*t. I’m a Biden man. Full Stop. In 1992 Bill Clinton had a sh*t 1st debate performance, and wimpy DNC bedwetters were calling on him to drop out so they could pick somebody new. We know how that worked out. In 2012, Obama tanked his 1st debate against Romney so bad, creating such a furor in his staff and advisors that he had to famously calm the room by saying, Chill. I’ve f*cking got this! Biden isn’t going through anything other candidates and President’s haven’t, but he has the extra load of his age already a major issue in the campaign.
Now on to some common sense. The calmer, saner pundits and Democratic analysts are falling all over themselves trying to remind all and sundry that there has never been a debate performance that appreciably moved the needle at the ballot box. Reagan got spanked in one debate that he droped 7 points in the polls, but came charging back. Too much happens in campaigns for one debate to make a difference, especially since they’re information free GOTCHA! festivals anyway.
Now, let’s back it up. Two months ago, CNN ran a national poll that had Trump up 49-43. Since this was a far wider margin than anybody else had for Trump, it was considered an outlier. Well, guess what? They ran the same poll after the debate, and it shows an identical 49-43 lead for Trump. It could still be an outlier with a glitch in the polling pool or polling inconsistencies, but what it does show is that Trump got no bounce from Biden’s terrible night. A month ago USA Today ran a poll that had Biden +1 over Trump. The same poll taken after the debate shows Trump +2. Trump just didn’t get the bump he expected from Biden’s rocky performance.
Now, let’s move over to the fireplace for a little plain talk, shall we? There are a myriad of reasons why pulling Biden from the ticket is problematic. One is that Biden would have to step down voluntarily, since the delegates are already pledged to him. Second, as President he basically owns the reelection fund. Biden would have to approve expenditures from the account for another candidate.
But the biggest single bugaboo against dropping Biden, even among the most die hard Joe’s gotta go! fans is that there is nobody to replace him. You look at possible replacements like Pritzker, Newsome, Inslee, hell, even Kamala Harris, and every one of them polls worse against Trump than Biden does.
If you took politics 101, then the answer is simple. Biden is the sitting President, running unopposed. Therefore he has exclusive use of the bully pulpit. And while some or all of them may have some national name recognition, none of them have spent the last year actively campaigning, making speeches, and getting face tiime on television. They may have name recognition, but nobody actually knows anything about them or their policies. Who wouldn’t stick with the known entity?
With one possible exception. Vice President Kamala Harris. She also has mondo national name recognition, and has had plenty of national face time. Add to it the fact that as sitting VP, she would have easier access to campaign funds, and she’d also have Air Force 2 at her beck and call. Harris has been a vocal proponent for Biden’s policies and initiatives, and would likely promote most if not all of them in her platform. But there’s one more, far more important reason Harris could do it. The polls may be wrong.
In that last CNN poll I noted above, Trump led Biden 49-43%. But in the same poll, Trump only polled ahead of Harris 47-45%. Harris isn’t even running, and she’s already within the margin of error in a head-to-head poll against the Tiny Thumbs Diktator. She speaks passionately in favor of women’s reproductive rights, and could motivate the African American voters to elect the first African American woman President. And let’s be honest. Unlike Sleepy Joe, in a one-on-one matchup, Harris would shove Trump into a La Machine, and hit the puree button.
My money is still on Biden. This weekend Biden is giving an exclusive interview to George Stephanopoulos of ABC. And this time, you can damn well be sure that Joe won’t be sleepy. Look for Biden to deliver a SOTU style interview. He’ll admit his debate shortcomings, probably without much excuse, and then tear into Trump like a shark into chum. With the Democratic convention about 6 weeks away, the nay-sayers can afford to wait a couple of weeks to see if and how Biden’s poll numbers bounce back.
The strange but sad part is that Biden’s immediate political future isn’t really in his own hands. He can easily survive the slings and arrows from a bunch of turncoat Democratic congressmen, and take political revenge later if the mood compels him. The closer we get to the election, and the clearer the contrast becomes, the more Biden improves his chances. But if the Democratic deep pocket donors threaten to pull the plug, then it endangers not only Biden’s chances, but the entire Democratic down ballot ticket. And with the threat of Trump, the pressure would be excruciating on Biden to step down. But if he does, I’m fully confident that next January 20th, we’ll be watching the inauguration of President Kamala Harris. Don’t touch that dial.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Excellent article Joseph. I have no doubt that Biden with wipe the floor with tRump! VOTE BLUE up and down the ballot!! 💙💙💙💙
To paraphrase Don McLean…Murf…this world was never meant for one as sane as you. Captain take the wheel and help us avoid the icebergs of timidity and stupidity.
I’m wondering if any of these namby-pamby Dems calling for Biden to withdraw have considered other certain legal ramifications?
Have these folks forgotten the effort in Ohio to keep Biden off the ballot because he wouldn’t be the Party’s official nominee in Ohio’s “required” time frame (because the convention wouldn’t officially acclaim Biden as the nominee until a few days after Ohio’s deadline)? You can damn well be sure that ANY effort that removes Biden will bring these efforts to keep the Democratic candidate off the ballot and, guess what, this time they’ll succeed. There won’t be any “incumbency” advantage that basically kept saner heads in Ohio from sticking to this absurd law (I’m still trying to figure out when exactly it took effect because there were other conventions when a Party’s official nominee wasn’t named until after the “deadline”).
I think dems calling for Biden to leave the re-election campaign, and only one dumb-ass texan has voiced this (moron comes in democrat too) tho’ there are others apparently getting in line to join dumb-ass, aren’t thinking past what the msm is feeding them. It’s like watching fux nuz viewers get spoon-fed their little bits of worthless pablum-dems are taking what the nyt says to heart f.f.s.
I guess we ought to have predicted democrats would f*ck things up all on their own. This election was, up and down the ballot, the dems to lose and by G_d it looks like they’re going all in on losing. It is times like these when I wish we had multi-party elections as the norm rather than as vote stealers-it surely couldn’t be worse than this shit. Our own people in Congress are giving this election not only to Von Shitzinpants, but to the con, xtian, nationalists as well. Sure do hope they like what they’ll get which will likely be a jail cell. The s.c. sure as shit isn’t going to save them and having a (D) connected to your name WILL be a crime.
Sorry man, every time I watch our party tear itself to pieces when they should be tearing the ‘pubes a new ass-hole it just pisses me off to no end. Now more than ever these morons should be banding together and giving the voting public a united message why the magats need to be removed/kept out of office. Right now however they’re giving the voting public every reason NOT to vote for democrats.
the law or rule was ignored up till
Never commented here before, but wanted to give a different view of Kamala Harris replacing Biden at top of Democratic ticket. First, I think she is very capable of being president. However, I am a college-educated white woman living in a small rural community in Indiana, and there is a lot of misogyny and belief that women are weaker. Every male in my direct family have indicated that they would never vote for woman at top of either ticket. I believe that if a male had been running against Trump in 2016 instead of Hillary Clinton, he would have beaten Trump. I think this country is just not ready yet for a woman president, especially a black woman, two strikes against her. I was even wondering if Kamala could gotten elected in 2028. I would be thrilled if I was wrong, but this upcoming election is too important to take that chance. So lets stick with Biden.
A petard is a bomb.
Karen I’m afraid you are correct, yet women have been elected as leaders of many countries. We aren’t as ‘free’, educated or egalitarian as the propaganda says we are.
Karen’s comment and Scott’s reply illustrate the paradox that is the U.S.A.
After Barack Obama was elected in 2008, I thought the country had come to a new level of (maybe) maturity. HAH! Boy, was I ever wrong!!!
Having served capably as a U.S. Senator from New York and Secretary of State, I thought Hilary Clinton would have easily been able to handle the duties and responsibilities of the Presidency, but enough people (many of them Democrats) didn’t agree. Months into Drumpf’s term, when we began to see how corrupt and inept he (snd his administration) was, I was on the phone with my cousin Rosemarie, a moderate Democrat like myself, talking about the deep sh*t the country was in, and she told me, “there’s no way I would ever vote for THAT woman!” She marked her ballot for every candidate, “even for dog catcher”, as she put it, but left the line for President blank – one of the many abstentions that helped Emperor Numbnutz win the Electoral College.
India had Indira Gandhi, the U.K. had Margaret Thatcher (they also had Liz Truss), and Germany had Angela Merkel, but the self-identified world leader can’t seem to bring itself to put a woman in its highest elected office.