I don’t know when I first heard the boastful phrase Everything’s bigger in Texas but I’m pretty sure it was in grade school. Texas is a bigassed state, and though they will never admit it hate being second in anything. They are only in second place in population (to California) and size (to Alaska). But it’s a huge state with a lot of people and a LOT of clout. It’s also provided it’s share of outsized personalities. They’ve got on in their AG Ken Paxton who want’s John Cornyn’s Senate seat and it’s a Texas sized problem for Trump.
As you know Texas was one of three states that held primaries earlier this week. Texas was one and the Senate race there could be huge in November when Democrats actually have a shot at taking control of that chamber. It got messy for both Democrats and Republicans and the GOP dirty tricks didn’t do us any favors. However Jasmine Crockett quickly and gracefully conceded and started rallying her supporters to back James Talarico. On the GOP side however it was a hot mess, and in the days since has become more so. Incumbent John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton are headed to a runoff and what was already ugly will be more so thanks to Trump!
Texas has been Democrat’s white whale for a long time now. We keep thinking THIS will be the year we win a statewide election and our hopes always get dashed. We can come close and make it enough of a fight that the GOP has to spend time and money they need in other places but that’s the best we can do. Paxton however is a candidate both the Texas and DC establishment fear could lose IF the Democrats put up the right opponent. Much as I love Jasmine Crockett I didn’t see Texas putting a black woman in the Senate. However the GOP engaged in shenanigans to make her the nominee right up through election day. It didn’t work and Democrats have a clear nominee and are pulling together. Republicans? They are headed for a nasty fight.
Trump wanted and I’m sure still wants to endorse Paxton. However, we have been treated to a rare instance of Trump listening and even heeding sound political advice. He could have put his thumb on the scales before the primary and pushed Paxton to the magic 50% number and the GOP establishment was in a panic. So he held off endorsing but right after the election said he’d do so, AND called for the other guy to drop out. As I wrote earlier this week that wasn’t likely to happen. The article covers more than one topic so the relevant portion today is what I just said. I was wrong about saying Paxton would get the nod – all indications are Trump is actually listening to Wiles, Thune and others and planning to endorse Cornyn. His problem that I wrote about was that neither was likely to drop out. And even with news about Cornyn, Paxton is saying he’s not about to drop out!
This is exactly what Trump and the GOP doesn’t want or need. This could wind up being the most expensive Senate primary in history. Not only that it could be the ugliest and leave the winner badly bloodied for the general election. Even worse for the GOP it could create a Grand Canyon, or rather Texas sized fracture in the MAGA base in Texas. One that could spread beyond Texas even. As I wrote in the article I linked to Trump probably knows deep down he’ll face a Democratic controlled House. That will be a big problem but a Democratically controlled Senate would be a true disaster for him. That he would swallow his vindictive pride and endorse Cornyn shows how scared Trump is.
Cornyn has carried enough water for Trump over the years to fill the Great Lakes. However he turned out not to be totally subservient and pretty bluntly spoke out before voting against Trump’s attempt to kill the CHIPs Act passed under Biden. Cornyn had plenty of other GOP Senators vote against the repeal but saying what he did, openly challenging Trump is unforgiveable as far as Trump’s concerned. Ken Paxton was already eyeing Cornyn’s seat when all that happened and it gave him a huge boost. Heading into the primary it looked like Paxton might win the nomination outright. Although his team talked him out of a pre-primary endorsement Trump clearly leaned towards Paxton.
Their were eight candidates in the GOP field but only three got serious votes. Cornyn prevailed with just 43.5% over Paxton’s 40.8%. Wesley Hunt pissed everyone off by refusing to withdraw and got 12%. I’ll let others make the case over whether Hunt harmed Paxton or Cornyn more but without him it’s possible if not likely one of the top two would have reached the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff. A runoff that will be ugly and expensive and eat up a lot of resources that will be needed for the general election. Polling shows Cornyn would have the edge over Talrico but with Paxton all bets are off. That’s why the entire GOP establishment in DC has been privately imploring Trump to get over Cornyn’s betrayal and quickly endorse him.
I read somewhere yesterday MAGA in Texas are in meltdown mode over this news. They want Paxton! It was their anger at Cornyn that propelled Paxton into a candidate capable of winning the nomination. Will many suck it up and vote for Cornyn in the fall if he’s the nominee? I’m sure the bulk of them will. However a significant, perhaps even large portion won’t. They will vote third Party or say screw it and not vote. Talarico has a good chance of winning the Independent vote and if Crockett supporters heed her call to rally behind him yes, he could win. If Paxton is the nominee Talarico goes from ‘having an actual shot’ to ‘in a good position’ to do the unthinkable – win a statewide race as a Democrat in Texas.
Here’s where it gets to be even more of a problem for Trump according to this article from the Dallas Morning News:
Paxton was asked about Trump’s post Thursday during an interview with conservative commentator Benny Johnson.
He said he would continue: “The people in Washington can have their own opinion. The president can have his own opinion. But I’ve been in this race for almost a year, and we’re going to win this race in the runoff.”
Before this, on Thursday morning in an interview with Politico comments Paxton had already made about staying in the race even if Trump backs Cornyn came up:
“Well, that’s bad for him to say,” Trump told Politico. “That is bad for him. So maybe, maybe that leads me to go the other direction.”
I don’t know about you but that comment from Trump seems to leave things still undecided. I truly believe Trump really, really wants to endorse Paxton. He also wants to avoid pissing off the largest group of MAGAs in the country. As I look at that comment, the part about ‘go the other direction’ I can’t help but wonder if he gives in, does what he wants (endorse Paxton and try to force Cornyn out) then hopes for the best. Or deludes himself into getting all the Independents to go for Paxton. That’s some seriously delusional thinking but this is after all Trump we’re talking about.
For his part Cornyn isn’t directly addressing Trump’s ‘I’m going to endorse and the other guy has to drop out’ talk. Paxton has engaged in a clever ploy of saying IF Cornyn gets the endorsement AND agrees to drop opposition to ending the filibuster then okay, he’ll drop out. Cornyn isn’t going to do that and Paxton knows it but it provides a shield with MAGAs and without overwhelming MAGA support for whomever the GOP nominee turns out to be Talarico really can flip the seat blue.
We need four pickups to take over control of the Senate. North Carolina is a probable for us and Maine is shaping up to be one too. Ohio might, especially if Trump’s war gets as disastrous as it well could and the economy (not the stock market but the one regular Americans live in and have to deal with) is tanking. That’s three and Iowa is a possibility. Even Alaska. Texas could be the belleweather. If the GOP can’t hang on to Texas of all places I’m betting we will hold on to a couple of seats where we have our work cut out for us, AND add four Democratic Senators.
This whole mess his a huge one. “Texas Size” as they like to brag and the fun part is that Trump is the one most responsible for creating it. Stay tuned. This will be like watching one of those cheesy slasher movies. How about The Texas Political Chain Saw Massacre for a title? Starring Trump as ‘Orange Face?’
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