Let me square this circle right off of the bat. A couple of days ago, I wrote an article in which I posited that like it or not, we had better at least steel ourselves for war. That was not a prediction for a certain war to come. My point was that the longer it went on, and the more graphic images of carnage we saw from Ukraine, the stronger the pressure from the west would be for NATO to step in and stop the slaughter. And I stand by that.
But at the same time, I find that option as becoming less and less likely, regardless of the western public pressure. For one simple reason. It has nothing to do with western politics, NATO politics, or even US politics. At this moment in time, it has everything to do with Russian politics.
Because as we speak, every day that goes by, and the body count piles up, and Russia’s assault against Ukraine becomes more and more inept, the war is becoming better and better defined. This is not Russia at war with Ukraine, it is Vladimir Putin at war with Ukraine. And that’s exactly where we want it to stay.
Because Russia doesn’t want a war with Ukraine! US and even international news outlets keep highlighting that polling shows that the vast majority of Russian citizens don’t want a war with the Ukraine. They liked the previous status quo exactly as it was. And more and more news outlets are starting to refer to it almost solely as Putin’s war with Ukraine, and not Russia’s war with Ukraine. And that is all to the benefit of the US and NATO.
Just look at the blowback to the war in Russia.
The stock market tanked, losing a record 50% of its value in one day before they shut it down. And it remains shut down as we speak. The Russian ruble went down the toilet. I heard a joke today on MSNBC, What’s the difference between a ruble and a dollar A Ruble?. Because right now, the ruble isn’t even worth a penny on world markets. Inflation has doubled in Russia, and interest rates are up 20%.
As I wrote earlier, there are Russian conscripts who didn’t even know that they were going to Ukraine who are deserting, and disabling their vehicles on the way out the door. There are tens of thousands of everyday Russian citizens taking to the streets every day to protest the war, knowing that they could be ruining their lives. Meanwhile, Russians with travel papers are jamming high speed trains in Moscow for Helsinki and other European cities, clearly voting with their feet.
Meanwhile, President Zelinsky, his cabinet, and the Ukrainian people are the darlings of the western world. If Jerry Lewis was alive to do a telethon, when this war is over, the Ukrainians would be able to rebuild better than Kuwait after the first gulf war. Everybody loves a David-vs-Goliath story.
But that is all for one simple reason, because it’s Putin’s war. Biden set out to stiffen NATO and resist Putin’s aggression, and even got countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea, Finland, Sweden and South Africa to kick in. And managed to turn Putin’s own people, soldiers, civilians, and oligarchs alike against him.
Putin himself has been an invaluable aide in the fight, simply because he has admitted the invasion, while insisting that the sole purpose was the DeNazification of the Ukraine government that was directly threatening Russia. In short, he willingly owns it. And it isn’t working with his own people.
Bit if the US and NATO decide to strike, to send fighters armed with sidewinder missiles into Ukraine to decimate that 40 mile convoy, then they give Putin tha lifeline he has been gasping for. They basically allow him to flip the narrative to his own advantage to his people. He can go on television, and explain to his people that his conflict in Ukraine was one of border protection against a NAZI opponent.
It would now be a defensive conflict against NATO and the west, trying to keep Russia from protecting its own borders. In one raid, the onus of the invasion would shift from Russia to NATO. Not with the western world, but that isn’t the point.
It would allow Putin to go on television and rally the nationalism of the Russian people to resist their traditional enemies. And it would work. Not with everybody in Russia, but with enough of his base to allow him to expand the war with NATO in general, and literally create World War III.
Look, I am so down with Zelinsky. I would love to see us send the Iron Shield to Germany and Poland, and declare a no-fly-zone over Ukraine. That has been Putin’s plan all along, to make NATO and the US responsible for his already failed invasion of Ukraine. And that we cannot do. As painful as it will be to watch, we have to let Putin fuck this up all by himself, and bring his rotten regime down with him in the process.
Been the calculation from the start, I would guess. Nobody would cheer America/NATO in this instance but everybody is on Ukraine’s side, ordinary Russians included. The main thing is, after tonight’s attempt to blow up the LARGEST NUKE PLANT IN EUROPE (seriously, this is such a coo-coo-for-Cocoa-Puffs move, the old Putin would have personally shot the idiot in charge of the decision), all that aid we’ve been giving them is about to MULTIPLY. Don’t be surprised to see new UAVs, volunteers and munitions that will allow the Ukrainians to create that no-fly zone they want.
And with the first 16,000 members of the Ukranian Foreign Legion (yes, I know they have another name but that’s the one I’M using) already there, Zelenskyy may have more fresh troops than Putin now does.
An item came to my attention, that you may just like the sound of. Hubs told me that he saw a report that 3 squadrons of A-10s are being sent to Ukraine. Those planes are some serious war-mongers and may just help Ukraine turn the tide.
There are NO plans to ship Warthogs to Ukraine. That’s a rumour which is being denied by Washington and the USAF. Besides that it would also mean the US training the Ukrainian pilots in handling the aircraft and its tactical use, plus training maintenance crews.
Even if it was true, the A 10 wouldn’t be that effective in attacking that convoy as it will be very well protected by anti-aircraft defences. See this article: https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/03/a-10-ukraine/
I read the article and have seen a lot of such stuff over the past couple of decades. Most of the top Air Force brass has wanted during that time (and even longer) to dump the A-10 from the inventory. It IS ugly and appears ungainly but even the pilot in the article who flew in Iraq would admit it handles like a dream. It is far more maneuverable that other attack aircraft. Between that and the design and placement of its engines it isn’t nearly as vulnerable to infrared guided missiles as other attack aircraft. Radar guides SAMS are of course another story but even so the Warthog has proven to be damned tough to bring down, even in that environment in Iraq mentioned in the article you linked. And there, as in Syria and some other environments with battle tested professional troops it proved tough to bring down. It’s quite durable and almost always, even when shot up/damaged to the point where it’s not cost effective to repair it to combat capability it gets back to base allowing that valuable pilot to fly again. In its history, including those heavy defenses in Iraq and some emplacements in Afganistan plus some of those Russian units in other hellholes performing their own “force multiplier” missions only a half dozen or so have been shot down.
Now, having said all that I don’t think there’s a need, or even that it would be desirable anymore for them or other aircraft to shoot up that long, long convoy north of Kyiv. Those vehicles are on the road for a reason. Well, more than one but the one I’m referring to is that even if gassed up and fully serviceable and with crews/drivers willing to fight the ground is already too soft for the kind of off road maneuverability needed for them to carry out standard Russian attack doctrines.
They are largely confined to that road and know full well how treacherous a path forward would be. It would be a ground equivalent of what in Naval warfare of being the WRONG part of a “crossing the T” situation.
That’s a lot of hardware on that road and although blowing it the hell up would be satisfying that leaves a helluva mess (including serious environmental ones) to clean up. Mostly intact, all that stuff is a bargaining chip in reaching a peace and withdrawal agreement.
It sill wouldn’t overcome the problem of crew training. That would require US personnel to train the Ukrainian pilots and maintenance people.
That would mean direct involvement between the USA (either military or Fairchild) in that operation. In turn that would mean US military or defence contractors being present in Ukraine or Ukrainian military personnel in an EU/NATO country – either way would be seized upon by Russian propagandists and giving Putin an excuse to escalate ever further
Cast your mind back to US military ‘advisers’ in Vietnam to see how things can escalate
A hungry man is an angry man. -Bob Marley
A lesson the beady-eyed dick weasel is going to learn all to well within the next month or less.
Concerning NATO, Ukraine is not a member and it is not NATO’s fight to enter, neither legally if not morally.
Which is why a ‘no fly zone’ is a non starter – If one is declared, then it has to be enforced which would entail NATO pilots engaging in combat with the VVS
I don’t no but what about the labs he knows about and nazi runnings what sopost to go in Ukrainian plus Ukrainie is been used for world money laundering in the world I think some of this people on here listen to to much propaganda yes ok war is wrong but putin stops before he strikes and gives civilians a chance to evacuate so no public gets hurt and why are all the Westen countries and America are so interested in Ukraine mmmm I think putin is just washing the bad shit out of Ukraine as trump said 2-3 weeks and putin has finish what he wanted do clean the shit hole up let’s see
Given the rambling nature of your comment and the complete mangling of the English language (I know some real dumbass people who can write more coherently than you) I have to ask. Is that you David Dennison aka Donald Trump?
Donnie T is a moron. A loudmouthed AH who’s only agenda was to swell his coffers while riding the coat tails of the u.s. presidency. QED.
Listen I maby not to good in writing but is not about that is it no plus can’t be that bad as u read it and undestud so go away clever ass some people I don’t no