I want to start out with a little recent history. In polls in the six battleground states in the week following the debate, Trump led Biden outside the margin of error in three states, had a two point lead in two more, and was tied in the sixth. Vice President Harris had an approve/disapprove result of -19.
Last week, in the tumult of the Biden withdrawal, and with Harris as the nominee, Trump led +2 in two states, was tied with Harris in three more states, and Harris led +2 in one. And her approve/disapprove rating as a presidential candidate jumped to +2.
There’s your backdrop. But now, midweek, some polls are starting to trickle in with results from polls taken in the last five days or so, after the change had sunk in, and people were more comfortable with the new paradigm. And while I’m happy with any new information, the polls I’m really waiting for is the ones coming out next week, once that new car shine has worn off of the campaign.
But the results that are starting to come in are bad news for Traitor Tot. Three weeks ago Trump led Nevada by a comfy 8 points. In today’s poll Harris is now +2. Harris is also within a +/-2 margin of error race in every other battleground state save Pennsylvania, where Trump is +4. But three weeks ago, Trump was +9. Therefore the push to make Josh Shapiro her running mate and flip the pancake. Also, Harris has flipped the scale and tied both North Carolina as well as Georgia, a state that seemed out of reach two weeks ago.
These numbers are nothing short of stunning in the space of two weeks. Normally, in an election year polling cycle, if you see a change of +/-3, somebody fornicated the canine. In Nevada she pulled off a 9 point switch. She pulled off a +6 switch in Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia, and a +4 in Pennsylvania. As long as the polling pool is similar, and the questions are the same, there is no way that this kind of a single cycle shift can be explained away as an outlier, or statistical clutter. Opinions are changing, and quickly.
Here’s what I’m looking for in the same polls next week, and you should too. Look for more Trump slippage in states like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia. Today’s UAW endorsement of Harris will help to shore up Michigan for her.
But more importantly is Trump’s self inflicted shotgun would be administered today. But his arrogant, racist, dismissive appearance today in front of the National Association of Black Journalists was nothing short of a shocking, ice water douche to the entire African American community. Trump wanted those clips to jazz up his racist base on Newsmax, OAN, and FUX News, but who cares? He already has those losers in his pocket anyway. But his arrogant, gratuitous abuse of the moderators and audience, and his racist dismissal of black feelings is going to come back to bite him in the ass in industrial swing states, quite possibly including Ohio, with the abortion initiative on the ballot in November.
Normally this is where I would caution restraint and caution, that it’s a long road ahead. Bur it’s not a long road anymore, it’s a 97 day sprint. And Harris has gotten out of the blocks at a world record pace. And as I’ve written, the calendar is heavy with Democratic friendly or Trump negative events spaced evenly enough for the campaign to keep the enthusiasm up all the way to election day. But no laziness. No sloth, and no complacency. Work your asses off for the next 97 days, and then sleep the clock around on day 98.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Bad news for Trump with worse to come
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Good news for Kamala with better to come.
Even Trump can understand that – and it’s driving him crazy.
Yay!
I truly do not believe that Kamala’s support is a flash in the pan. I think people have been frustrated, pent up and waiting for this.
It’s a paradigm shift.
I agree with you. When the backstabbing from MSM and Big Donors started after the debate I noticed that none of them mentioned Kamala. “It would be exciting to have an open primary.” A whole lot of other geezers I know agree it’s about effing time we had a woman president. Here we have a candidate with experience who’s cool and sharp and warm and philosophical. As you say, what people have been waiting for. If the Money Bags don’t like it, they can get out of the way.
It’s probably safe to infer that MAGA and GOP now collectively suffer from cat allergy. Miau!
I’ll add this one, too:
There’s nothing like a sharp incisive attorney to know how to go for the throat.
OMG, Post it note….you are SO FUNNY! TYVM, u made my day!
I love Biden. Although he was a victim of our clueless youth culture and the whores of MSM, he did the unthinkable and walked away from another potential term. More importantly, with his pick of Kamala as VP, when the pundits said he wouldn’t pick her, he has set the table for her historic run at the presidency. For a guy supposedly over the hill, he played his hand perfectly to set us up to avoid the end of our democracy and the destruction of our climate. In his one act of selflessness, he also elevated people of color EVERYWHERE! Lincoln has a statue for saving the Union. I believe if Kamala wins, Trump goes to jail, and the traitors/criminals in congress and the Supreme Court get their justice, Biden should be honored somewhere for this act. The gop are like an infestation of cockroaches that run hither and yon when the lights come on afraid they are headed for doom. This lady is not to be trifled with. How ironic black folks are the ones taking this racist rapist down. Let’s help them out. VOTE!!!!
Agreed on all counts Scott. Biden’s a classic Good Man of the old school, with honor and dignity part of his DNA. Neither of those sterling attributes can be attributed to any of the MAGAt GOPers. Kamala is quite capable of kicking Trump’s lardass right into court and then into the slammer, and he knows it. There’s fear & loathing in Mar-a-Lago now. His only hope is that some crazed believer with a gun gets to Kamala first. That would be his nightly prayer. My nightly prayer is that the Secret Service is capable of protecting her better than it did Trump.
The weird thing is, for a while there the moral value of Biden was somehow equated with the moral value of Trump et al.
That’s some weird ‘bothsiding’ isn’t it?
THIS!!!!!!