The Polls Are Razor Tight. But Don’t Forget The Democrats Secret Weapon

Nobody ever thought this was going to be a walkover. Well, maybe the brain dead GOPtards thought they were going to have a cakewalk this year, but the Democrats have always known it would be an uphill slog. But at the 33 day mark, the Democrats are in position to buck the odds, and hold both chambers in November.

There are so many razor thin races, in both the House as well as the Senate, that there isn’t room to fit them all. But the Democrats are competitive in places that weren’t even supposed to be on the map, like the Ohio Senate, the Florida Senate, and the North Carolina Senate. And I can’t even list the number of House seats that are in legitimate play. Unlike most midterm years, the Democrats actually have their shot.

But let’s get one thing clear. Midterm elections are traditionally lower turnout elections than when the President is on the ballot. And as a result, midterms normally tend to come down to 2 factors, Issues, and Voter turnout intensity. And the Democrats have the edge in both, and they have a secret weapon I’ve written about before.

In this instance, we can dispatch with both categories at the same time, simply because they overlap and coalesce. On the subject of issues, the economy is top dog, followed by abortion rights and threats to democracy. The issue of crime ranks in at number 7 or 8. That polling is general polling, asking both sides equally. With the economy coming first, this should be bad news for the Democrats. But not so quick.

Because when you look at polling about what’s motivating voters from each party to go to the polls, it tells a different story. When Democrats are polled, a whopping 81% of them list abortion rights as their primary motivation, But when Republicans are polled, then crime is the top thing that is motivating them, which is why you’re seeing so many GOP Super PAC ads with crime themes. The problem for the GOP is that abortion rights is much more important in polling than crime, indicating an enthusiasm deficiency.

But all of that misses the hidden factor, and one that I’ve written about before. The 18-24 vote! There are 2 reasons why this voting bloc remain largely ignored. First, for decades now the 18-24 vote has historically been the lowest turnout voting bloc there is, especially in midterm elections. They’re too busy partying, and trying to start families and careers to become involved in something that doesn’t directly affect them, or at least they don’t think so.

The second reason is simple polling. Most polling organizations get their poling pool from publicly available voting lists. And voters who have come of age and registered in the last 4 years have likely never voted in an election. And those coming aboard in the last 2 years may not even appear on the rosters yet.

But in 2022, potentially for the 3rd straight cycle, we are poised for record voter turnout in an election. The 1st was in 2018, when the backlash of the Parkland shooting motivated 18-24 voters to show up to turf out GOP incumbents beholden to the NRA. And their success in flipping the House by turfing out those NRA slaves showed them that their individual votes actually matter.

In 2020, when faced with another 4 years of Traitor Tot, and a dearth of gun control to finish the job, again 18-24 voters turned out in record numbers. They also turned out for social issues like climate change and immigration. Biden is in the White House, and the Democrats control the House and Senate.

And now, here we go again. Let’s be clear, the 18-24 voting bloc is not overtly political. They don’t care about political parties, they care about the issues that are important to them. And the Democrats are lining up with them. Biden came through for them by signing the first comprehensive gun control law in a generation, and he signed the largest US commitment to climate change in history. And now today, he pardoned thousands of federal prisoners sent to prison on simple marijuana possession charges. And now, the Democrats are passionately pro choice, for a group for whom an accidental pregnancy van be devastating.

And here’s the thing. They are almost never actually polled. They live on cell phones, with no traditional landline contact, and most of them have either never voted, or haven’t voted enough to make the pollster’s call list. But they’re there, and they’re motivated, and nobody knows about them.

On The Reid Out today with Joy Reid on MSNBC, Joy talked to a woman running a branch of the Democracy Defenders, a group sponsored by Michelle Obama, that mobilizes young voters. And the conversations should have the GOP pissing in their Depends. Because this is an activist group. And they are sending groups out to high schools and college campuses to educate and register new voters. And at the same time, they’re educating them to activism. And the GOP apparently has no idea of this potential tsunami on their flanks.

There’s the dichotomy. The GOP is monolithically devoted to their ever shrinking base, older, lower education, lower class, scared white voters, bucket heads, and bedsheet banditos. Meanwhile, the Democrats are assembling a new coalition of younger, more upwardly mobile, mor socially conscious voters. Which one has the better prospects for future success? Don’t touch that dial.

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