Here’s a public service warning for y’all. For the next 32 days, when you look at the polls, both national as well as battleground states and US Senate races, the one word that should set off a flashing red light, and a stink worse than Traitor Tot’s branded shorts is aggregate. I’ll explain.
You know my healthy distrust for polls, especially national polls, but they can be useful tools if you know how to read them. And it’s not actually all that hard if you know what to look for, and I’m here to help.
For instance, back in 2022 I was the first one on the site, and one of the earlier ones period to call Bullsh*t on the impending incoming Hurricane Katrina Big Red Wave! And that was for the simple reason that when you looked at it taking each reputable poll individually, there was no sign of a red revolution coming in 2022.
Most pollsters do their own polls, that’s what they do. Among my favorites are the NBC News, Morning Consult poll, Nate Silvers 538.com, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Quinnipiac, the gold standard, and The Cook Report. I personally avoid the New York Times poll like Ebola, too many wild swings.
When you want to see what’s going on in a race, spend 10 minutes and go to your favorite reputable sites and look them up. Barring light statistical clutter, the results should be pretty consistent all the way through. Average them out and you have your snapshot in time. That’s called aggregate polling, but when you’re going it yourself, with pollsters you trust, you tend to trust your results.
Which is critical, because many reputable pollsters also do their own aggregate polling, and that’s when the toilet flushes. Because when even reputable pollsters do an aggregate poll, their basic criteria seems to be, If it has the word poll in it, throw it in there.
Which is what happened in 2022. Too many of the 2022 aggregate polls had right and far right, highly unreliable pollsters who specialize in fudging the poll questions and voter sample pools to get the desired result. Which is basically providing trash organizations like FUX News, OAN and NewsMax to proudly proclaim a Big Red wave! But when you looked at the individual reputable polls, the results made no sense.
And it’s happening again in 2024. Pretty much national news outlet is screaming about a razor thin margin in 2024! Which I get, since it’s click bait like that that keeps viewers tuning in. And there’s no doubt that it’s going to be a close race. But when you look at individual reputable polls, the margins aren’t as thin as being advertised.
For instance, most reputable national polls have Harris leading Traitor Tot by small but durable over several cycles leads of 2.5-5 points. And in three recent polls I’ve seen, Harris has topped the 50.1 or better magic number. But if you look at aggregate polls you get results like Harris up 48-47. Bullsh*t! You look at any legitimate national poll and show me one where El Pendejo ex Presidente is over 46%. I’ve yet to find one, for the simple fact that 46% is his ceiling. Which shows you just how bad some of the right wing polls have been skewed.
The same thing is true in almost every reputable battleground state poll, but I won’t belabor the point. The critical thing is that when you want to know what’s going on, pick a couple of polls you trust for accuracy, pull them up, and compare them. Because just as in 2022, the aggregate polls are full of sh*t.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
