At a formal dinner, it is the person closest to death that should sit nearest to the bathroom George Carlin
I’m down with it. At this point I fully concur with my favorite political operative, The Ragin’ Cajun, James Carville. Quit wringing your hands, and just do the work. Show up. Vote. Pester your friends into voting. Pester your family into voting. Pester your coworkers into voting. Carry grocery bags across the street for little old ladies, in return for their promise to vote.
There are two absolutes in modern politics. The first is that any presidential election with an incumbent running is always a referendum on their leadership. And because there are so few truly independent, or soft voters left in this country, every election comes down to which side can best turn out their base. And this election will be no different.
And it is motivation that I want to talk about today. The Democrats have had it since the fall. At the start, our primary field was basically the entire alphabet. And voters were engaged. They turned out to listen to the candidates, and they supported them. There were several 2nd and 3rd tier candidates who were able to hang well beyond their shelf life to to regional grassroots fundraising. The debates, and there were plenty of them, scored well in the ratings, and people paid attention. And starting with the first test of the primaries in a truly diverse state, South Carolina, when the base coalesced around Biden, the primaries were over with blinding speed. The Democrats used a combination of a terribly unpopular President with a diverse and qualified field to seize momentum right out of the gate.
But what about the other side. Well. because The Prince Of Fartness in the White House, Donald Trump, was so terrified about what nasty things a former Governor of Massachusetts, and failed Libertarian BP candidate, and a failed congressman and conservative talk radio show host might say about him, he basically used the state Republican parties to ensure that there were no primaries of any consequence. Why so scared? It’s not like either Walsh or Weld had any realistic chance of beating Trump in a primary. As I wrote at the time, far wiser to engage in a series of debates, spending two hours at a crack playing whack-a-mole with your opponents, while your base revs up, and give rallies every week in cities across the country where primaries are being held. Those rallies are what whets the appetite of the base for the battle to come. But Trump’s fragile ego threw that away.
What has happened since? The Democratic candidates have all rallied behind Biden. Tens of thousands of people stood in late winter weather for hours in Wisconsin to cast votes for a state Supreme Court seat, flipping a seat the state GOP had thought they had successfully retained by using the coronavirus as a vote suppression technique. Tens of thousands more stood out in the rain for as long as 5 hours to vote in the Georgia primary. These are clearly not Trump voters, since white neighborhoods had minimal to no waiting lines at all. And while His Lowness huffs and puffs about law and order, and taking back the streets, using the military if necessary, national protests are in their third week, with no signs of abating.
Trump’s biggest motivational problem right now is that he actually looks weak. Forget the coronavirus, his knuckle head supporters don’t buy that. But seniors do, and Trump is losing them. He called the national guard into the streets of Washington to protect him, and looked like a total wuss when it came out that he hid out in the White House bunker for protests across the street. Then he had to pull the national guard out, after their heavy handed tactics in clearing Lafayette park for his photo op started a military revolt against using US troops for civil unrest. He threatened, and then backed down about using military forces to clear protesters in US cities, only to have Governors tell him to fuck off, and they’d see him in court if he tried it. Even for his own supporters, there is no way to spin these defeats into tough leadership wins, which is why two recent polls show Trump’s approval at 38 and 36%. We are about to find out just how small Trump’s true base of core support is.
But it is the events of the last 72 hours that may well prove to be the watershed moment for Trump’s reelection campaign. When Trump announced his first campaign rally in three months, of course he scheduled it in Tulsa, Oklahoma, site of the worst mass racial violence in this country’s history, and of course he scheduled it for the anniversary of the atrocity. The backlash and outrage was immediate and universal. Trump’s response to the outrage? What do I care. those people aren’t my voters. Apparently someone, either in the campaign or the Senate, convinced him that while these may not be his voters, why give them motivation to turn out in November, instead of trying to keep them at home. Trump came out with some cheesedick excuse about racial sensitivity for changing the date.
Here’s why this change is so devastating. Ask yourself one simple question. What does Trump’s base think about this date change The Trump of 2015, the Trump of 2016, the Trump of 2017, that Trump would have flipped double barrel birds at the country and held the goddamn rally on that date anyway. Because that’s what made Trump Trump fer Christ sakes!He was the only one who would say what nobody else would say, and do what nobody else would do, because he was beholden to no one but them! And bow here us, backing down for political considerations. Yet again! How many times can Trump continue to look weak, and vacillating, and totally wimpy before even his base finally tips to the fact that he isn’t what he told them he was?
The golden rule of the Trump campaign under Corey Lewandwoski was to Let Trump be Trump. But these days, it isn’t the Trump campaign that isn’t letting Trump be Trump, it’s Donald Trump who isn’t letting Trump be Trump. Trump’s threats these days are met with scorn and mockery instead of fear and capitulation, and don’t think that his base doesn’t see it every time he wails to follow through, and wusses out instead. And every time he does, it just builds confidence and motivation in the Democrats who see him on the run. James Carville is right. Just to the work! Trump will take care of the rest.
To know the future, look to the past.before the insanity of the 2020 election, relive the insanity of the 2016 GOP primary campaign, and the general election, to see how we got to where we are. Copies of President Evil, and the sequel, President Evil II, A Clodwork Orange are available as e-books on Amazon, at the links above. Catch up before the upcoming release of the third book in the trilogy, President Evil III: All The Presidents Fen
Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35
When this is over, I think I’ll call Trump The Man Who Would Never Be King.
And for all time, for evermore, for all eternity, everyone will know the answer to the question,
‘Who is the worst President of The United States?’
There should be no doubt in anyone’s mind on that one.
Now Himself’s campaign is mumbling about having a second night of rally in Tulsa…based on the imaginary number of tickets that people have signed up for. (Never mind that the sign-up is basically to create a bigger mailing list.)
Typographical correction: In the fourth paragraph, William Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts, is referred to a “failed Libertarian BP candidate.” “BP” does not refer to British Petroleum. It is a typo for “VP.” Weld was that party’s vice-presidential candidate in 2016.
There is not one of his base who will vote for a democrat/socialist/communist and we all know it.
And who gives a damn about any of them at this point? They remain a minority, one that is going to regret EVER crawling out from under their rock.