Over the last couple of days, we’ve seen some new national polls, and finally, in the last eight days, they’re starting to show what I and Matt Dowd have been saying all along. Nationally it’s a 3-4 point race, with Harris in front.
A new ABC poll released today, probably the last one before election day shows Harris up 51-47. Another shows Harris up 50-27. And the NBC News poll released yesterday shows Harris up 49-47. Note that in the first two Harris has crossed the magic 50% line, meaning Traitor Tot can’t win without siphoning votes from Harris in the last eight days. And most importantly, these are stand alone polls. Notice how neatly they dovetail.
I’ve written before about how over the last year, at least a dozen far right bullsh*t polls have showed up in Pennsylvania alone. The same is true to a degree in the other battleground states. Normally this would only skew the results in the battleground state polls, but here’s the McGuffin. If those bullsh*t polls also poll the presidential race, then they’re likely to slip into the aggregate pollsters national polls. And that’s why seeing these reputable stand alone polls can be informative when they tend to all align together without the statistical clutter.
As we speak, the Nevada early voting numbers show that the GOP has a 5% lead in early voting. The early voting information from MI, PA, and GA also shows the Democrats with a narrow than normal advantage in early voting.
So what? In politics they have a word for this, it’s called cannibalization. I call it Robbing-Peter-to-pay-Paul. Briefly, the GOP only has a finite number of voters in each state. And a huge early voting turnout by necessity means a puny election day vote, especially in the cow counties, where population is sparse to begin with. And in large urban areas, the Democrats turnout machine can reach out to and mobilize many more infrequent voters than the GOP can.
And here’s the even more good news which proves why this is important. In Nevada yesterday, they reported a record number of 18-24 voters showing up at the polls for the last Sunday of early voting. These are voters that likely aren’t accounted for in polling, and who since 2018 have been heavy turnout voters that break heavily Democratic. And don’t forget about paid time for hotel and casino workers to vote on election day in Nevada.
Over the weekend in Georgia they recorded a heavy turnout of black women 60+, the deepest base of the Democratic party. They also showed a strong surge of low intensity voters coming out, especially in Fulton County. And Michigan and Pennsylvania also reoprted heavier than usual low intensity voter turnout over the weekend. Considering the Democrats marked advantage in the ground game and grassroots organizing, it isn’t hard to guess which way those votes are going to break.
And here’s the cherry on top. This is the week of closing arguments, the final pitches. Trump’s closing argument, as demonstrated in yesterday’s MSG rally is to turn the United States into apartheid South Africa. Meanwhile Kamala Harris is hammering battleground states with a positive message about the manufacturing job growth of the Biden-Harris administration, and hitting red suburban districts trying to reel in as many of those disgruntled Nikki Haley voters as possible.
And here’s where the money advantage comes in. Harris is meeting the voters where they live, especially the 18-24 college crowd. The campaign is offering free concerts at campus rallies, and even holding non alcoholic block parties with food and entertainment. Along with voter registration services and directions to polling places. Traitor Tot is sticking only to the safest red districts, desperately trying to scrape every last lazy MAGA ass off of the couch and to the polls.
I’ll close with this. For the last week now, all of the reputable free standing polling as well as early voter turnout information is good news for the Democrats, and they’re touting it to build momentum. And from the Traitor Tot side? *crickets* Unless of course you want to call calling Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage, and calling Muslim 2 year olds born American killers dominating the entire news cycle positive press. And knowing these sh*theads, I’m sure they do. 8 days. Keep punching and keep the faith.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Not to mention all the republican voters that will vote blue. I’m sure that’s an unknown quantity, but also I’m sure it’s happening.
This just in, on a personal level:
A lovely woman of Puerto Rican descent living across the street from us told my wife the other day she wouldn’t be voting this year because she didn’t like either candidate. My wife came in after sitting outside with “the ladies” and told me that after learning about the MAGA MSG rally, our neighbor has changed her mind about going to the polls.
Several neighbors on our street are of Caribbean, South American or Puert Rican descent, and I suspect their reactions to this issue are similar. I know for a fact my next-door neighbor, a daughter of Dominicans, is strongly anti-MAGA.
Look out, GOP, the hammer is about to fall.
I don’t trust the polls-for us or against us. Too many times they have been wrong-badly so. I will just wait, impatiently, for votes to be tabulated. I hope the majority of the voting public has enough sense to see the nightmarish hellscape in store for the nation should trump ever be allowed back in the w.h. I REALLY hope they realize just how bad their g.o.p. reps/sens are and vote those clowns out of office…and don’t send ‘pubes back to replace them.
Pipe dreams I’m sure.
When you talk to people about this remind them of something WAY to many folks don’t realize – Puerto Ricans are AMERICAN CITIZENS! They just don’t get any votes in the electoral college for Puerto Rico itself. They’ve paid taxes, they’ve been drafted into or volunteered to serve in the military too. They are as American as anyone else.
Well, the funny thing is that Puerto Rico has a referendum coming up next week in which the options are (A) statehood, (B) independence with free association* and (C) full independence.
Even though the referendum isn’t binding, it would be interesting to see if the full independence vote actually gets a significant percentage this go-round. (In prior referendums, the pro-independence vote has never come close to 10% support.)
*The “independence with free association” would likely be similar to how the US operates with several Pacific Islands nations (Palau, the Marshall Islands and the Federated States of Micronesia). The countries are fully independent but the US provides for the countries’ defense and easier immigration rules and access to other social services, among other things.