I know, I know, we’re still 13+ months before early voting starts for the 2024 general election, so sue me. But you know how sometimes the weather forecasters see a storm system in the middle of the Atlantic, or far out in the Gulf of Mexico, and the storm develops with such consistency, and the track is so predictable that even weathermen are able to do a Simone Biles and nail the landing.
That’s what this is starting to look like. Right now, the RNC and GOP are like some moron walking through a bee farm without the canvas coat and head mask with screening. They’re running around, slapping themselves all over, and just trying to survive.
When you look at the upcoming House elections in 2024, like my beloved Cubs had Tinker-Evers-Chance for a sure fire double play, the Democrats have added a mystery player that gives them a sure fire triple play. And the GOP is working like hell to give the Democrats extra outs.
Here’s the Democrats secret triple play for the House going into 2024. Trump-Redistricting-Abortion. This first one is easy, Traitor Tot. Since January 21st, 2017, Trump has been a toxic miasma over the GOP. He cost them 40 seats in the Hose in 2018, the White House and the Senate in 2020, and another Senate seat in 2022. The only reason the GOP retook the House in 2022 was gerrymandering, and moderate GOP House members in swing districts that Biden won by having GOP women voters come back to them while bouncing Traitor Tot. Good luck in 2024.
The second out is redistricting. This one is a kind of hybrid of GOP arrogance in their redistricting to gerrymander, and incompetence in newly formed non partisan redistricting commissions. Due to a combination of GOP malfeasance and non partisan redistricting errors, the Democrats now figure to pick up in 2024
- One House seat in TX
- One House seat in LA
- One House seat in AL
- One House seat in GA
- One House seat in NC
- One House seat in NY
That alone is enough to give Hakeem Jeffries the House Speakers gavel in January of 2025. But in addition, there have been districts redrawn that make them more competitive, and ripe for Democratic pickups.
The third leg is abortion. There’s a damn good reason that many of those GOP swing district congressmen won their seats in 2020 in districts Biden won. Because abortion wasn’t on the ballot! The Supreme Court didn’t overturn Roe v Wade until the summer of 2021. And since then the GOP in red states have gone batsh*t crazy passing ever more restrictive abortion bans in the states. But their own constituents have pushed back, and ballot initiatives to enshrine abortion in state constitutions have gone 7-7. And Florida may even be in play in 2024, thanks to an abortion ballot initiative there. But the GOP presidential candidates are extolling the wonders of an abortion ban. There is no abortion safe swing district in 2024.
But wait! There’s more! The GOP is so totally self delusional and self destructive that they’re going to give the Democrats even more chances to pick up seats. Just to point out a few of the highlights on the horizon;
- As I said, Florida may be in play in 2024 for the presidential race due to the abortion initiative on the ballot. But even if it doesn’t flip Florida blue as a state, there are several close swing districts that could flip blue, not only in the US House, but in the Florida House too
- In his thirst to maintain his majority, and therefore his Speakers gavel, House Squeaker Cave-in McCarthy has an indicted, potential federal felon in his caucus. But because his majority keeps shrinking, he dares not move against George Santos. Which, after the House resumes in September, there are 20 vulnerable NY GOP House members are reported to push a bill to expel Santos in order to save their own sorry asses. Personally, I’m betting the Democrats vote NO unanimously to keep Santos as an albatross around the GOP’s NY delegation in 2024
- McCarthy really sh*t in his mess kit with the House Freedom caucus. In cutting a deal with Biden to get the debt ceiling off of the table for two years, and using moderate GOP votes to pass it. he deprived the diaper caucus of their sh*t fit. He can’t do that again. The Teabaggers are going to shut down the government on September 30th, whether McCarthy likes it or not. He has no choice but to let his two year old’s touch the stove, and then, when they scream, he can cut another deal with Biden using moderate conservative votes. Which will leave the US population, especially vulnerable senior voters, which the GOP desperately needs, pissed at them heading into the primaries and general election
- Trump makes a twofer! I’ve already written that Idiot Boy is bleeding the GOP small donor data base dry to pay for his legal fees, and deep pocket donors are snubbing the RNC as long as Trump is on the ballot. There is a plan afoot for deep pocket GOP donors to target donate to vulnerable GOP House swing districts and Senate seats, and cut Trump off from funding. But these deep pocket donors don’t have either the intelligence or targeted polling savvy to make sure that the cash gets to the right places
- In critical GOP battleground states like PA, Mi, WI, MN, AZ and NV, the state GOP parties are going dead stony broke. That’s because those state parties have been overtaken by Trombies. The deep pocket donors aren’t going to bail them out, and by the looks of it, neither are moderate GOP in state constituents. This will not only choke off vulnerable US House and Senate candidates, but state legislature candidates as well
Now you know why I’m already talking about the House 14 months out. But the 2024 general election is starting to shape up like that movie The Perfect Storm. Through stupidity, ideology, and intransigence, the GOP is purposely placing themselves on the wrong side of every issue from voting rights to LGBTQ rights, from abortion to gun control. And the toxic presence of Traitor Tot is going to squeeze the RNC for cash like they never have been before. Add in the inability of Trump controlled state party organs to function, and it’s a recipe for disaster.
Meanwhile, the Democrats have their sh*t firmly together. Run on Bidenomics, tout the positive economic numbers, lower insulin costs, and infrastructure improvements already underway. Throw in surgical strikes against Trump’s criminality, Anti democratic MAGA policies, and tie local candidates to unpopular policies. Plenty of time yet, but this isn’t even shaping up to be a fair fight.
Screw having a fair fight. I want it to be like this iconic photograph of Muhammed Ali standing over Sonny Liston yelling at him to get back up so he (Ali) could beat on him and knock Liston back on his azz again!
Tick. Tick. Tick. Kaboom!
ummmm, news flash: it was theirs for the taking in 2020-after Dobbs. I myself thought that was the death knell for many republicans in congress but it wasn’t quite as bad as it should have been. They still managed to get a majority in the house. Not as big a majority as they hoped for but still a majority.
Sorry spike. Like any of us sometimes you miss the mark some but I don’t ever recall your being so far off. The Dobb v Jackson case was argued before SCOTUS in Dec. 2021. The draft decision was leaked in Feb. 2022, either by Alito or Thomas or both to prevent other GOPers on the Court who were wavering towards doing what Robert’s wanted (upholding Roe but with a rollback to sixteen weeks) and the actual decision which differed little from the draft was handed down at the end of June, 2022. Of course by then outrage was ramping up but the important part is that prior to the Dobbs decision it was believed by all that 2022 was going to be a VERY bad midterm for Democrats.
Red Wave/Tsunami, bloodbath etc. were the terms you saw everywhere every day. Even Democrats trying to spin things had been admitting with a bad Senate map and gerrymandering (and F**K you New York Democrats and your Gov.) it would be tough to keep Control of the House. Predictions had ranged from five or six (if not more) pickups for the GOP in the Senate and the House? 49-50 seats was what most thought and some thought it could get to 70-80. Talk was (even among Democrats) that “only” losing to the point of GOPers having 30 seat advantage was the norm. And at the state level it would be just as bad if not worse.
After the leak of the draft of the Dobbs decision talk started to change but many and not just in the GOP thought that while the still anticipated GOP takeover was still a given it being a Red Wave was lessened somewhat. But still, or so it was widely believed it would be a good year for the GOP. Well, we did well at the state level, picked up a seat in the Senate and got to do away with the power sharing agreement and (again, in particular to NY state f**K you) came within a whisker of holding the House.
Dobbs/abortion is still costing the GOP and the a$$hats seem determined to refuse to learn the lesson. People, and not just women aren’t “getting over it and moving on” the way the keep thinking will happen. Even freaking RED states are telling their GOPer governments to go to hell and voting to enshrine abortion rights in their state’s constitutions. Part of it is because most of the pretense has dropped and some on SCOTUS and GOPer officials all over the place have their sights set on national abortion bans, and not stopping there but also going after birth control!
But my point is that in 2020 Dobbs hadn’t even been heard by SCOTUS. Sure, we knew it or something like it would come along but sadly as is so often the case Democrats and sane independents REFUSED to heed warnings from even before 2016 about what GOP Presidents were doing with the federal judiciary and SCOTUS in particular. If GOPers got control of the House in 2022 it was only by a thread and it’s going to make for an interesting time starting this month when Congress comes back. There are what, twenty of them that had narrow wins in Biden districts? If they go along with a shutdown like the Free-DUMB KKKaucus wants that’s it. That’s the House back right there. And the GOP dream of scratching out regaining control over there too.
My point though is that you shouldn’t go saying we haven’t reacted the way we should to Dobbs in 2022 or even 2020, Especially the latter because it wasn’t even on SCOTUS’ docket in 2020!
one more data point to add. MC turtle is/was one of the most prolific fund raisers in the gop. now that he is mostly incapacitated who will take his place? MC turtle propped up senate races in 2022 despite trump candidates. without him they will struggle to stay competitive.
Progressive policies ALWAYS help the Democrats when they commit to them and then act on them. Alternative energy, universal healthcare, and light rail systems are a plus that the public will be sold on. Let the GOP be the enemy, to hell with them.