So The Russian Coup Is Over. Maybe. Now There’s More Questions Than Answers

Let me start by saying I worked for hours on this article.  And junked most of it.  Frankly, while it was developing into a well-written piece with lots of context I realized it’s just the kind of stuff I write that few people read.  Ego crushing as it is to admit I lack the stature to get people to sit through even ten, much less fifteen minutes or more of serious discussion on a topic.  So here goes with the cliff notes version that should only take a few minutes or so.

While working on an article about why Ukraine shouldn’t deviate from the plans they had for conducting the now underway counter-offensive news broke the coup was over.  Prigozhin and his Wagner (mercenaries) Group had stopped their advance on Moscow.  My initial reaction after WFT? was to start checking to see if multiple outlets were reporting the same thing.  In other words was it true.  Turns out it was.  So, like any other person questions started filling my brain housing group.  The initial news was damned thin on details.

Let’s just say as the evening wore on they remained few.  And vague.

We were told (assured might be more like it) it really was over.  We were told Putin pal, his lapdog dictator in neighboring Belarus had brokered the deal.  And would offer safe haven for Wagner (and coup) leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.  That Wagner forces not only had stood down but were starting to exit the major hub they’d taken over.  (Without Russian resistance it seems)  We even saw video of Prigozhin being driven off to exile with lined streets of crowds cheering him!  Same for other Wagner forces as they began their withdrawal.

I’d have loved to be a fly on the wall to catch Pootie’s reaction to all THAT!

I had several pretty (to me) important questions however that there didn’t seem to be any answers to.  Such as:

• Will both sides honor the terms (whatever the hell the full terms were) of the deal?
• On a related note will, once he’s in Belarus will Putin lackey Lukashenko quietly “liquidate” him?  (For the record not for a few days at least.  Maybe longer depending on how much Putin feels he’s losing his grip on power)
• Here was a big one – what happens now to the Wagner group forces, which we easily the most effective “ground pounder” (infantry) troops Russia sent into Ukraine?  More on that in a bit.
• Ukraine.  What if anything does this all mean for them?  At initial glance it seemed all good but I worried about unforeseen consequences.  More on that in a bit too.

But, as I said even by the time I went to bed there were precious few answers to most of that and even fewer details.  Now, almost a day later there aren’t all that many more details but here’s what we know.  Or think we know.

Lot’s of people are amazed Putin didn’t order his former pal killed on the spot as he walked to the vehicle that would bear him to Belarus.  Or at least somewhere along the way.  Then again, has anyone actually seen him in Belarus being “welcomed” by Lukashenko?  If so I missed it.  But there are no reports of any “unfortunate accidental falls” from an upper story window or down a really, really long flight of stairs so for today at least Prigozhin is still probably among the living.  He might even have an insurance policy of sorts.

In addition to having been “Putin’s Chef” before becoming unofficial-behind-the-scenes” (until after this huge war started) henchman/mercenary army leader.  He also built up Russia major cyber warfare unit, the notorious troll and hacking farm we know as the Internet Research Agency.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s got ALL the goods as in not only “dirt” but where all of Putin and the other oligarch’s money is.  With what’s called a “dead man’s switch” – a code he has to type in every 12 or 24 hours (whatever time frame the creator chooses) that only he knows.  With it’s own poison pill built in – once the “correct code” is tortured out of him it resets but only ONE time.  He can laugh from his unmarked grave when the code he suffers mightily before giving them turns out to be worthless after all!

Anyway let’s move on to the Wagner Group.  We know a little more about them now.  Again, at first glance it appears they’ll be ok but if you believe that then boy do I ever think you are wrong!  What we’re being told is that those who took part in the “March to Moscow” have been granted “amnesty.”  Hmmmm.  That’s pretty damned vague, at least to me.  I also saw where checkpoints have been set up to identify/round up Wagner dudes trying to slip away and disappear into Russia.  We know the Russian Army has used massive numbers of barely trained conscripts.  The lucky one with strong back got sent to dig fortifications in that “land bridge to Crimea” but the bulk have been sacrificed in “overwhelm Ukrainian forces with human waves” attacks.

Anyone care to bet THIS is the fate that awaits those who were “so mercifully” granted “amnesty?

Then there’s the Wagner troops who weren’t involved in the movement of troops to Moscow.  That got to chill out in their barracks.  THEY are granted the “privilege” of getting contracts to join the Regular Russian Army.  That too is likely a rather dubious “privilege.”  It will mean more combat in Ukraine and if not those given the “honor” of leading squads and platoons in those human wave attacks they will be forward in the defensive positions that Ukraine will attack and die that way!

Keep in mind the long-standing animosity between Wagner and the regular Russian Army including and especially their commanders.  Also, despite (accurate) reports of the Wagner forces moving through Russian checkpoints along their route it wasn’t clear sailing the whole way.  It turns out there was an engagement or two.  700 Russian soldiers killed.  A half-dozen tanks as well at five of the Russian version of our HIMARS.  Russian generals in Ukraine and some in Moscow too were plenty pi$$ed about THAT.  Pootie too which no doubt accounts for the anger he displayed on TV in the hours before the peace deal was announced.  It’s a given those Wagner forces are going to suffer some major payback.  Hell, they might even fight back and unlike the Russian regulars they are capable of organizing quickly into effective units and at least going to hell in a crowd made up more of their fellow Russian enemies than their friends.  If it gets ugly the commanders will rain down artillery on them all!

So for anyone that was Wagner, a line from an old Simon and Garfunkel classic comes to mind – “Any way you look at it you lose.” 

As for Ukraine, taking that 50k strong Wagner force out of the equation is a good thing for the ground war.  But as with everything else it’s likely to come with a cost anyway.  Putin will order a renewed/amped up ferocity of attacks on cities and civilians.  So be ready for that.  I suspect Ukrainians have already started steeling themselves for this eventuality.

As for long-term?  Without its most effective ground forces Russia is a step, a big one but still only a step closer to being driven from Ukraine.  That’s a good thing.  Prigozhin being out at the Internet Research Agency might also put a dent, not a big one but a dent in their operations too.  Perhaps buy a little time, breathing room for our side and the other good guys to get a better handle on countering Russia’s cyber warfare attacks.

And maybe, just maybe it puts Putin closer to someone or a group taking him out.  If not killing him then exiling him, perhaps to a heavily guarded little spot like a compound with a crumbling house and a cracked pool in Sochi for the rest of his days.

But for now, and I think for days and even weeks to come we simply don’t know.  And we sure as hell (even experts) can’t predict how all this will play out months into the future.

(As I said at the beginning I’ve got plenty more to say, both analysis and opinion on everything here and more.  If people ask, and I haven’t been beaten to the punch by someone else I’ll be happy to flesh out details of one or more things I’ve covered.)

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