For those of you who are more casual political observers, and not so much steeped in the finer points, a quick explanation. Coattails is a long establisdhed political concept, with a long history of success. Basically it means that if you have a popular candidate at the top of the ticket, his popularity with voters can help less popular or less known candidates down ballot, since normally if people vote the top of the ticket, they tend to vote the same party down the rest of the ballot. Simple.
But like so much in politics, there is also an Alice-through-the-looking-glass concept called the reverse coattails effect. In that concept, an extremely popular down ballot candidate, such as a Governor or US Senator who drives up the vote, and drag a higher ballot candidate like President over the finish line with them.
A month ago, I would have said that the reverse coattails concept was almost a critical part of the Democratic battle plan, for a simple reason. In battleground states like WI, AZ, and PA, popular US Senate candidates like Tammy Baldwin, Ruben Gallego and Bob Casey were all running 5-6 points against their opponents, outside of the margin of error, while President Biden was running underwater. Pretty much the only Democratic hope was that those Senate candidates could whip up a frenzy vote, and drag Biden over the finish line with them.
A month is a lifetime in politics. As we speak, right now in the latest poll, Harris is +4 in WI, AZ, and PA. This not only takes some of the pressure off of the Senatorial candidates to do the heavy lifting, if Harris uses the DNC for a post convention surge, it could even help to make those candidates tasks easier.
But nowhere in the electoral map is the concepts of both coattails as well as reverse coattails as prevelant as they are in the state of North Carolina. A month agho North Carolina was totally off the map for the Democrats. But today, in the most recent poll Harris is in a dead heat with Traitor tot.
But the marquee race under President in North Carolina is the race for Governor. Popular two term Democratic Governor Roy Cooper is termed out. The Democrats nominated an uber qualified candidate named Josh Stein. And on the GOP side, the GOP has nominated Trump acolyte and black Nazi Marc Robinson.
This walking diaper stain is some piece of work. In the middle of a hysterical rant Robinson screamed that some people need to be killed. In an interview he said that if he was Governor, with a GOP legislature, he would pass a law outlawing abortion in any circumstances. He has also called teachers Evil people and groomers, and at one point basically said that women should all be barefoot back in the kitchen. This is clearly someone who was warped early, and never got professional help.
And here’s where the concepts of coattails and reverse coattails comes in. Harris is running dead even with Trump in North Carolina. She has already made multiple appearances in North carolina, and will likely be a regular visitor going forward. A positive convention and aggressive Harris and Walz appearances at strategic times could put Harris over the top in NC, making PA less critical. And help Stein get to the Governors mansion.
But here’s the McGuffin. Josh Stein may not need Harris’s help. It turns out that Robinson is such a toxic candidate, even for North carolina that the latest state poll shows Stein +10. If Stein maintains or even grows his support, then his up ballot lift could help to propel Harris and Walz over the finish line in a state nobody thought they had a prayer in a month ago.
There you have it. Now you’re conversant in both coattails as well as reverse coattails, and now you have a practical tutorial in battleground states as to how it could all work. 85 days left. Work like hell, and sleep on November 6th.
I thank you for the privilege of your time.
Make it so, Goddess, make it so.