Remember a few days back I predicted that we would hold the House, albeit it by the skin of our teeth, and I said that if I was wrong I would pay for the cream pies and you could throw them at me? Well, I’m not going to the bakery any time soon. Not after the actions of our new Democratic savior, St. Linseed of Graham and the wonder he hath wrought in the land. Hosanna.
Before you read the following analysis, stop for a moment and think about what conventional wisdom was saying a mere two months ago. “Bloodbath” “red tsunami” “40 plus seats — at least.” And I never believed that. The reason was because the gas prices were spiking all of these “the sky is falling” predictions. Republicans like Madison Cawthorn were signing up voters at the gas pump, you remember that?
Then the gas prices started dropping, because reserves do exist and Joe Biden knows what he’s doing and so that bugaboo went away. Inflation concerns began to wane and yes, the stock market had a dip yesterday (which Donald Trump reports as “CRASHING!!!”) but that is bupkis compared to how people feel about what Lindsey Graham set into motion, which is a wrecking ball aimed right at the GOP. If they were fractured before, they’re shattered now.
What Graham did yesterday was turn the tide of public opinion 56 days before the midterm election. Hence, this tremendous optimism about the fortunes of the House of Representatives.
Punchbowl News:
We caught up Tuesday with Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, all of whom separately made the same prediction. The trio – who have run the House Democratic Caucus together for a generation – expressed strong optimism about the outlook in November. They insist it isn’t just false bravado but a realistic assessment of the national mood.
The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, combined with a series of legislative victories on Capitol Hill, has shifted the political landscape in their favor, these senior Democrats insist. Former President Donald Trump’s headlining-grabbing legal troubles also help. Democrats point to upset victories in Alaska and New York special elections, improved polling and strong fundraising as proof of all this.
We spoke to Pelosi twice on Tuesday. Once, as Pelosi entered her office, she responded, “Yes, indeed,” when asked if Democrats would win seats in November.
In our follow-up conversation, Pelosi expanded on her earlier remarks:
“I was just in 12 cities in 12 days. We’re ready. And understand this. Because of the leadership of [DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney], we’re ready.
“So when the Dobbs decision came down, it wasn’t one of those ‘If only we had known.’ No. We believed we were going to win from Jan. 6 on – well, even November of last year on.
“So we’re ready. Mobilizing on the ground … messaging, raising the money. But the biggest factor of all is not only do we believe, the candidates believe. So for a year, 10 months, eight months, terrific people had put themselves out there believing they could win in those districts.” […]
Let’s be clear here – Democratic fortunes have improved significantly in recent months. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy began the year suggesting 60-something House seats were up for grabs, and now Republicans – and most political analysts – say a net gain of 10-20 seats is far more realistic.
We also understand the role that Pelosi, Hoyer and Clyburn play here as party leaders. Part of their job is sort of team captains, urging their members – and donors – to keep fighting until the end. There’s no reason to concede defeat publicly now. Whistling past the graveyard sort of comes with the job.
Also, the experts can be wrong. Just look at 2020. Most said Pelosi and Democrats would win House seats. Instead, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and the Republicans picked up 14 seats, surprising the political world.
Let me interject a comment here. History is good for spotting trends and cycles, but what Lindsey Graham did yesterday was iconoclastic. He broke the mold. So I would not rely too heavily on wipeouts from previous years. And yes, 538 is predicting that the Democrats have only 27 chances out of 100 to retain control of the House.
That was before yesterday.
My take on this is two fold: The Supreme Court did the wrong thing with its regressive Dobbs decision. It’s understandable, because with the unfortunate timing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death, the court became stacked with retrograde viewpoints. The Dobbs decision was wildly unpopular before yesterday. Then Lindsey Graham sprinkled gasoline and threw a match.
And make no mistake, we should not be complacent. We should campaign as though we are twenty points behind. The House is by no means a given. But it just moved ever so much closer into the realm of reality. Same with the Senate. We should campaign like we might lose that as well. And bottom line reality here, if we can only keep one chamber of congress, we’d do well to keep the upper chamber and it looks like that’s happening. Again, thanks to St. Linseed.
Once again we ask why did Graham do this? Still no answer. Maybe fond memories of the man he was when he was besties with Joe Biden. Hillary Clinton used to say about that time, “Lindsey was good company. He was self effacing and funny.” Maybe he wishes he could be back there with them and his BFF John McCain and be who he was, before the MAGA darkness fell and the Orange Devil found him. Who knows?
All I can say is thank you, St. Linseed. Whether we manage to keep the House or not, you’ve puffed some much needed wind into our sails at a crucial time. Whatever happens in November, you’ve improved our fortunes and we are grateful.
Graham did this as a distraction…not just for the public, but for himself since he is neck deep in maga-crimes. He is freaking out about having to testify in Georgia. 😀
The guys a total idiot. He’s been hated by both sides for years. Which crime is he in with maga. I’d like to research. Just about 2 crimes for now and please be specific.
Graham Cracker is going to enjoy that unique distinction of being hated by both sides after this stunt.
Still, even if Republicans lose the Senate (and though far from certain it was leaning to us at least keeping thing 50-50 and maybe picking up a seat or two when the dust settled) he still won’t be the most hated man in the Senate. That dubious honor is Ted Cruz’s for life. So Graham can take comfort in that. Small comfort I guess, but sometimes you have to be glad for anything you get.
I look.forward to Big John Letterman patting Cruz’s greasy head and tossing him through the hoops in the Congressional.gym.
When you have no character then you go where the wind blows. Sometimes it blows you sideways.
The dems keeping the house would be good. We really need them to take over more of the senate. The way things are now our nation is in extreme danger from ‘pubes, magats, etc. So long as the ‘pubes exist as a viable political party, our civil rights are hanging by a thread. Women are losing their bodily autonomy state by state and the ‘pubes in congress can’t wait to take it away from all of them. LGBT+ rights are one gnat’s asshole hair from going up in smoke. A large swath of our population thinks the orange dimwit should be king. King F.F.S. Let’s gloss over the fact we don’t have kings in this country and in fact fought wars to keep it that way, the idiot should not be allowed to have power over a cockroach let alone an entire nation.
Without taking a large chunk of senate seats from the ‘pubes, we’re still close to being fucked.
We are far from being out of the woods. We won’t know until November. Until then talk us cheap.
In the spirit of that comment, if you are in a position to move the needle through volunteering and donating, get off your ass and do it!
I’m counting on the women voters to bleed blue in this election. With a bunch of old white racist men Decide that women are less than whole citizens, and determined that they will take away our rights as citizens, I think most women like myself are nothing short of furious. And we will make them pay!