A group of GOP strategists who supported various candidates in the 2016 election got together in a smoke filled room, literally a cigar bar, with Tim Alberta of Politico and assessed the weaknesses and strengths of the various Democratic nominees. This is a lengthy article and if you read only one piece in it’s entirety today, I would recommend that this be the one. Politico Magazine:
Terry Sullivan: The two that are exceptional candidates aren’t going to surprise you: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. The knock on Joe Biden is that he’s an old guy and he says stupid things. But this general election is genetically engineered for Joe Biden, because he won’t be the oldest guy, and no way in hell is he saying the stupidest things. Donald Trump is a match made in heaven for him. [Biden’s] a good politician, and he’s designed for this race. He appeals to that disenfranchised Archie Bunker. He can win those back from Trump. The person I think is going to surprise everybody is Cory Booker. Not out of anything he’s done so far, but he’s a damn good candidate back to when he was mayor of Newark. The media may move on because he doesn’t seem as sexy at the moment, but I think he might have some ability to really kick it into next gear. And I think Kamala Harris is going to go the distance. The African American community is the single biggest bloc in the Democratic nominating process, full stop. […]
Danny Diaz: I think it’s the people who are worried about making it through the summer and being on the stage in the fall. It’s pretty clear that Sanders is going to be on the stage, and it’s pretty clear that Biden is going to be on the stage. I think if you’re Kamala or Warren, you’ve got to be like a really good rebounder in a basketball game. You’ve got to hang around the hoop, and you’ve got to get rebounds. I think [for] the folks that aren’t going to make the stage in September … they need to change the game for themselves so that they’re viable. They’re hoping just to make it until the early states [begin voting], and then it’s a totally different game. […]
Tim Alberta: Let’s talk about Biden a little bit. He’s treated in some quarters of the Democratic Party as a front-runner, if not a prohibitive front-runner, for some of the reasons that you all were mentioning: The combination of name ID, big donor support and establishment backing casts a shadow over the rest of the field. But the doubts come into play when we get to this discussion about whether he’s in step with today’s Democratic Party. Danny, you faced a similar situation with Jeb Bush. When you look at the Biden campaign—his handling of the Hyde Amendment, for instance—what is your advice to them? What warning would you give the Biden campaign, so they don’t suffer the fate of Jeb Bush four years ago?
Danny Diaz: You have to have a theory of the race, and you have to pursue it. And from his standpoint, he’s wearing the colors of the front-runner. He’s on a stage with nine other people. There’s one commonality among those nine, and it’s bringing him down. And he’s got to navigate that. But what does he have working for him? He has working for him, once again, March 3 [Super Tuesday]. You’ve got, what is it, like 13 states? Half of the delegates are almost decided in Texas and California alone, and he can run a big campaign. He can run a well-financed campaign. He’s got a pretty good foil in the president of the United States, and he understands that. So, he needs to maintain continuity. That’s his goal, and the longer he maintains continuity, the more of the doubters he brings into the fold. What works against him is he’s been around forever. He has said things, voted on things and done things that he doesn’t recollect, and all of those are going to come to bear.
Terry Sullivan: He’s a 747 that’s tough to get off the ground, but once it gets off the runway and clears the trees, it’s tough to bring it down.
The popular candidate who fared the least well amongst these Republican strategists is Elizabeth Warren, whom they consider too wonky and out of touch with mainstream voters to run a successful campaign. Supposedly she doesn’t resonate with the average person and Trump would “beat her like a drum.” Beto O’Rourke and Pete Buttigieg were deemed to be media creations, first and foremost, although Buttigieg is considered a comer because of his authenticity. Ironically, the fact that he’s gay is actually working in his favor, according to this piece.
My bias in this race is probably not progressive enough for a lot of people, but I think it is practical. I say that Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Donald Trump and that’s who I support. I completely get that Biden may not be “the face of the party” and that there is a generational gap in the party, all that. Got it. What I also get loud and clear and this, for me, obliterates all other considerations — we have to get Donald Trump out of the White House before he does any more damage. We have no other purpose in this election than to do that. The Democratic party has one purpose and one alone at this point in history and that is to wrest the government out of the clutches of the criminal regime currently in office.
This is not a normal election. This is not about purity, it’s not about the direction the Democratic party is headed, it’s not about anything at all, except taking back our country and re-establishing our place in the world as a sane and decent people, and a world superpower that doesn’t toady to the likes of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-Un. We cannot afford the reelection of Donald Trump. America will be permanently crippled and damaged if we reelect this fraud and allow the American government to be his plaything and toy for another four years. This is not a time to be progressive and push the envelope, this is a time to be sane and give the country a face they recognize and one that they associate with competent governance, so that we can heal as a nation, after this Trump ordeal.
I’m also going to be totally candid and say that if we learned one thing from the 2016 election it is about the degree of institutionalized misogyny in this country. Kamala Harris has much to offer, nobody is disputing that. I dispute whether this country is ready for a black female as president and given the level of dissension in this country, I don’t think that now is the time for that. I think we need to fall back a few paces and heal. I am ready to be called racist, misogynoir, whatever you want to throw at me, go ahead. Racist is ludicrous, because if the so-called “Cult of Obama” has a High Priestess, it is me. Nobody loves Obama more than I do.
Barack Obama is the rare individual that comes along once in a generation, if the generation is lucky. He did much to advance progressive causes and to further the rights of POCs — and that is the main reason we have Donald Trump in office, because eight years of Obama was too much of a threat to so many people. I think that Joe Biden can appeal to voters that viewed Obama as a threat, but have serious doubts about Trump. I’m not talking about winning Trump’s hard core base away from him. Those people are irreparably lost.
I’m not happy to write these words. But I believe them to be a fair assessment of where America is at in 2019. I don’t think Harris is a good bet, because I don’t see her as someone to heal the divisions in this country — and we are more divided than we’ve ever been, since the time of the Civil War. Frankly, I not only don’t think that Harris could heal the divisions, I think she would only exacerbate them. I think Biden is the logical choice to bring the country together. I am not saying that he is without baggage or without flaw. Nobody with his length of service in politics is going to be. I’m saying we need to take a cold hard look at where we have fallen to as a nation. Having Donald Trump as president is the nadir of American history — but he could win reelection if the Democrats screw up. I say we go with the safe shot and give the nomination to Joe Biden so that America can go back to being America. Donald Trump fears Joe Biden and I think that Biden could hand Trump his ass in 2020.
Biden and Sanders did themselves no favors last night. I doubt that either will be the nominee.
You could be right. Then we could be in a world of hurt. I honestly believe Biden could beat Trump, and that’s my only consideration. If I had to choose a candidate on policies and positions, Elizabeth Warren is my choice. That is not where we’re at, in my view. Where we’re at is beating Trump, period.
Warren comes across very well, better than either Biden or Sanders, IMO. Sanders is still running for 2016, and he and Joe seem to be lost in a world where candidates aren’t all white males.
I have no argument with anything you’re saying. My point is this: you and i are informed voters. We stay on top of politics, we know all this stuff. John Q. Public is who is going to be in the voting booth and the election has to be geared for that person. That’s the gigantic blind spot that I think the Democratic party is missing. And we can’t afford to screw up this election. I say we play it safe. And yes, I know, people say Biden’s a dinosaur, bla bla. So far I remain convinced that he’s the dinosaur that can beat Trump. I don’t know if Harris can. I think she’s facing too much backlash from the racist, misogynist society in which we live. I was stunned when Trump won. Even with the Russian interference and the Hillary hating, enough people voted for Trump to give me severe pause about who the Democrats put on the ticket.
He didn’t win VOTERS though. The fact that he won the elector college — a brainless, non-thinking bureaucracy — was due entirely to other factors.
He still got far too many voters. There was an Obama backlash going on, as well as a Hate Hillary factor, as well as ingrained sexism. It should not have been as close as it was.
It wasn’t that he got too many voters; it was that she got too few, thanks to voter suppression (the main factor in Michigan and Wisconsin), Russian propaganda and Bernie Bros. Idiohio is a perfect example. Trumpp won only 1% more of the total vote than Bush did in 2004. The difference was Hillary got much less than Kerry because of the well poisoning going on.
Voter suppression and gerrymandering are key issues. I’ll never dispute that for a moment. My point is that there were still too many people who voted for Trump, IMO. Some of these were protest votes, no doubt. Some were Hate Hillary votes. As terrible a candidate as he is, a complete farce of a candidate, he should not have gotten 63,000,000 votes. There is something seriously wrong in this country — apart from voter suppression, gerrymandering, all of it.
I disagree. I think we would be in a world of hurt if either of them were. Bernie because he’s running against Democrats and would have only his bully Bros to campaign for him. Biden because his recent string. of gaffes despite his handlers trying to keep him under lock and key is only going to continue. Warren has a much better shot in my opinion, as does Harris. Both are more exciting, more focused, more steady and have more appeal to OUR base, even if not to a room full of GOP consultants and pundits. They’re not who we need to appeal to. They want us to like Biden because he’s who THEY are comfortable with and they know Trump is familiar with his type and can easily handle him. Harris and Warren not so much.
Warren and Harris are more focused and more exciting to YOU, Anastasia. You are a highly informed voter. You know politics inside and out. I’m not talking about the mes and yous. I’m talking about John and Jane Q. Public who are voting based on gut instinct, as opposed to bothering to educate themselves about the candidates.
Look, I want to be wrong about all this. I truly do. But I was not wrong in 2016, when I said that it was the year of the populist and the establishment candidate, which was Hillary, was going to lose. I expect to get a lot of heat for my views. But I’m going to speak them anyhow, and glory be, if I am proven wrong and Harris or Warren can get elected, I’ll be the first one popping champagne corks and dancing. I just don’t want to hand the election to Trump. Trump fears Biden and he has reason to fear him, because he knows Biden can swing the independents and the Obama voters who voted for Trump.
Doesn’t (and, shouldn’t) it scare anyone else that we’re talking about the Presidency and, over the past couple of decades, the idea of a candidate’s being “too wonky” is seen as a “negative?”
Back in 2000, the big criticism of Gore was he was “too wonky”–that he “couldn’t relate to the common guy” (because, of course, how many “common guys” had daddy and his big-money buddies to bail them out after every single failure like Dubya did?). In 2008, Hillary, among other things, was dismissed as being “too wonky” (far more so than Obama) and, in 2016, she got tarred with the same thing; despite having set up defined programs and policies, the MEDIA spent so much time dismissing her as “out of touch” and “not charismatic enough” as if either was really relevant to the JOB of President. When the Dems have decided to go for a candidate who “didn’t get bogged down in details” or were deemed “charismatic” and “exciting,” well, our fortunes have been mixed but in none of those 3 elections (2004, 2008 and 2012) did *our* guy really win in the long run (Kerry, of course, got his clock cleaned thanks in no small part to a rash of anti-gay bills and amendments to stop the “horror” of gay marriage and Obama, while having a big triumph in 2008, eventually saw that win turn into a major, well, shitfest after 2010).
I, for one, don’t care if my President is charming and telegenic provided he or she can discuss ISSUES at the same time. And these “debates” are ludicrous to the point they don’t deserve to be called or described as such (go look at the rules that exist for real debates–you’re supposed to have two sides arguing to persuade people of the merits of their side and showing respect to their opponent even as they disagree with the points; a REAL debate moderator would NEVER allow talking over each other as, too often, happens in these current misnamed fiascos).
Two points: doing the job of president and getting the job of president are two very different things. We know that any of our Democrats is going to do a better job than what’s in the White House now, that’s a given.Who is electable to the position is a completely different story. Second point: the debates are a bit of a farce. They’re more like infomercials for the candidates. Hopefully, as the field narrows, we’ll see some more substance.
I disagree wholeheartedly. I think most of our candidates COULD beat Trump, but Biden would have a harder road than most because he can’t energize women, young voters and minorities as easily — the voters we need to come to the polls — and there really aren’t that many “Archie Bunker” Trump voters who are winnable, and I think suggesting there are in a sneaky Republican sabotage trick.
I also think Pete Buttigieg is possibly the LEAST “authentic” candidate of every single person on the stage, even the flakes. While I hate to judge something that nebulous, which means little more than “I personally believe this person,” I feel like all his positions are studied, secondhand and rehearsed — none of them have been tested in real life or backed by any voting record, activism or anything else. He’s saying stuff he’s carefully scripted because he thinks it’s what Democrats want to hear and his arrogance in thinking that he should be the youngest president in U.S. history despite being perhaps the least qualified candidate on stage in terms of relevant experience (except maybe Marianne Williamson and Andre Young) is getting on my last nerve. He’s a hive of self-important, unacknowledged privilege.
Also Hillary won. Her loss was not about misogyny but about voter suppression, media bias and Russian propaganda.
As already stated, I’m basing my views upon my perceptions (and they may be wrong — and frankly, I would be relieved to find out that they are) — of what the average person, who does not follow politics, believes. It took me a while to formulate these views. And I knew that they would not be popular. It’s just as well I’m still not over at you-know-where, because I would be getting excoriated for being pro-Biden. All I’m saying is that I think Biden would be an acceptable alternative to Trump for many people who might otherwise vote for Trump. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. Not looking to win any popularity contests here, looking to get Trump out of the White House, and this is my assessment.
Sorry, Ursula, but no…I cannot accept your thesis in any way, shape or form. Too much of it smacks of thinking that this is still 2016 to me, when there are clear differences. Personally, I am way over the argument that this country is ever “ready” for a first anything (to be clear, my anger is at the argument itself, not you for having understandable reasons on why you think it’s so). NOBODY’S ever ready for that first step when it happens.
With this said, if Joe gets the nomination, I’ll support him like I would any of the rest, Bernie included. But we can do better.
As stated, if it was up to me, based on intelligence and a grasp of the issues, I would support Elizabeth Warren. Let me put it this way — maybe this is the way to state it: I became a different person election night 2016. Prior to that evening, I was telling people, “I have to believe in the goodness of the American people” by way of saying that of course Hillary would win, the American people would never elect an obvious bum and moron like Trump. I was dead wrong. My belief in my “countrymen” changed that night. First of all, there are two countries, side by side, America and Amerika, and I live in America. But right now Amerika is in control, and it’s terrifying. Secondly, I wasn’t wrong about Hillary in 2016. I didn’t think she should be the candidate. I believed it was the year of the populist — not saying that Bernie would have made a better president. No. Not saying that at all. But I firmly believed then and believe now that Bernie would have won. And ALL i CARE ABOUT right now, for the 2020 election is that we get a Democrat in the White House. Whether it’s the right one, wrong one, tall one, short one, I don’t give a good *%$*%. I want Trump out and I think Biden can beat him. And I would lovvvve to be wrong! Maybe Harris will get the nomination, or Warren and one of them will beat him. As stated, I’ll be the first to dance in the streets. Don’t underestimate the abject stupidity of the American voter. If 2016 didn’t teach us that, then we have learned nothing from history and we are doomed to repeat it.
The real lesson of 2016 that I took in retrospect is that we Americans are terribly unimaginative when it comes to anticipating threats. Too often, our threat assessment in the popular consciousness just consists of replays of the last big disaster we experienced. Not only does it blind us to ACTUAL threats but it also does little to prepare us for our unexpected victories. That is why I lack the current concern you have at the moment. No one really knows anything right now.
You might be right. But I recall David Brooks, the conservative columnist saying that Trump couldn’t win in December of 2015, a lot earlier in the game then, then we are right now. His idea was that Trump was just a flashy, gaudy guy and he appealed to some counter-cultural, burn-it-all-down, mentality. But that voters would come to their senses and make the prudent choice at the right time. HA!
Actually, that David Brooks example is a perfect illustration of my point. We’ve never had a disaster like Trump before and he sure as hell didn’t see Mr. Tangerine Man coming, did he? His dread was having another Clinton (which was anything BUT a disaster the first time IMO, but guys like him saw it as one) so he went for the rerun as the more likely scenario.
How does the David Brooks example illustrate your point? I am in a mental fog right now. I had dental surgery yesterday, with the meds and the nitrous oxide and today I’m just eating avocado toast and taking pain killers, so please forgive me if I’m simply not as sharp as I normally might be. Nuance is going right over my head today.
The Brooks piece I’m referencing made the comparison of a flashy rug and a practical rug. The flashy rug appeals to people immediately when they see it in the store, but when it comes down to buying something that’s got to last, people will pick the practical rug. Or, so Brooks opined at the time. He thought Trump was an amusement, apparently, but that the GOP would get serious and pick a real candidate. Well, he was sure wrong — and that was a red flag to me at the time. I completely freaked when I realized that Trump would get the nomination.
I was reading our buddy Murfster35 at the time. I hadn’t met Murf, just was lurking and reading him. As the GOP primary got going I remember thinking in horror, “Oh, my God, this guy is right. Trump is going to get the nomination.”
Since then, Murf and I have become good friends and we’ve talked about those days. He said it was just arithmetic, that he wasn’t reading a crystal ball or anything.
Point being, I kept waiting for the GOP to pull out of it’s nosedive and it didn’t. They nominated the POS. And now we’re stuck with him. And if the Democrats screw up the coming election, I shudder to think where we’re going to be as a nation.
The reference was to Americans in general, not JUST Republicans. To wit, Brooks’ inability to think past what he considered the previous great disaster (a Clinton presidency, which of course was anything but a disster) being repeated made him unable to see take Trump seriously as a threat to first his party and then the rest of us. And as a people, across the political spectrum, we do this ALL THE TIME.
One thing is for damn sure, and that is that nobody took Trump seriously enough as a threat — or, let me rephrase that. Not enough people took it seriously. I took it as seriously as a heart attack and I still do. My reality changed in 2016, when I saw Trump headed for the nomination. I knew it was a catastrophe in the making, and nothing has happened to make me change my mind one iota. In fact, everything that has happened since Trump sailed down the escalator in 2015 has only ratified my worse fears.
We’re in a totally different league now, politically. Brooks had the luxury of considering Bill Clinton’s administration a disaster. “Disaster” was a relative term, back then. What we are seeing now is the real thing — Trump is the disaster. We’re on the Titanic right now. Any other administration in history was fully functional and just fine, compared to this one. I would take any of them back right now, Nixon, even Dubya, compared to this shitshow.
While I take your point on both Nixon and W, I refuse to absolve either of their awfulness. Said awfulness is what allowed a monster like Trump to manifest in the first place. He is the logical endpoint of what they started.
I’m not absolving anybody from anything. Perhaps I was clumsy in my phrasing, but my point is, as awful as Nixon and Dubya were, Trump is so very much worse. Not normalizing or justifying Nixon or Dubya. Just saying that as horrible as they were, Trump has them beat hands down.
Agreed, Ursula…just acknowledging Trump to be the fruit of the poison tree.
Exactly. Trump represents the most toxic strains in the GOP and he would not be where he is without his GOP enablers. Although wait and see, they will denounce him as “not really a Republican.” The minute he’s outlived his usefulness to them, that’s how it will go down. Mark my words.
There’s at least one ‘analyst’ out there who thinks that Williamson is just what we need, and that she won last night. (I’m not sure what universe they’re living in.)
Oh, we can expect the crazies. I loved it yesterday when Tulsi Gabbard was declared the debate winner, and Ann Coulter said she watched the debates with a “liberal and a moderate” and they were all three thrilled. That’s entertainment. And consider the sources cited: Drudge and Breitbart? Oh yes, impeccable references there.
Sorry. Biden will lose to Trump. He’s a centrist who will not excite the base at all. All elections are about turning out the base. Biden is corporate tool and douchebag who’s completely out of touch with reality. He won’t fight for us and is after all, the Senator from MBNA.
He isn’t *completely* out of touch with reality. And he hasn’t been in the Senate since 2008.
Plus all the polls you’re not seeing are showing *all five* of the frontrunners beating Tr*mp.
The base is “centrist”.
Thank you for your piece. It has been so ugly over at DK, Huffpo, and then the MSM with their attacks and glee at the supposed end of Joe Biden. One of the main reasons I am a Democrat is I don’t like the way Republicans treat their opposition and I was really turned off by Harris. Our goal is to beat Trump, not beat any viable Democratic candidate into the ground. This is not coming to Biden and the Right is grooving on all this. Hey, the upside is, if Trump wins in 2020, the folks at DK will be able to continue complaining and never take any responsibility for helping Trump get elected–again. And one more thing…Kamela Harris is no Obama. Not even close.
I agree with everything you say. Any Democrat stupid enough to cheer for the supposed demise of Joe Biden is a moron. Biden is quite possibly our best bet to beat Trump. Perhaps he’s not perceived that way in Democratic bubble land, but most of the country doesn’t live in that reality. I live in California, and I can assure you that even Californians aren’t living in some elitist fantasy world. I also talk to people in Iowa, Ohio, other states where Biden is not perceived as a dinosaur. He’s quite viable.
I have no stomach for Democrats eating other Democrats. As I’ve said in this piece and elsewhere, we need to focus on our sole priority, which is getting Trump out of the White House. Period. Full stop.
The Democrats who diss Biden so badly, and think that we’re going to have a two woman ticket, all that, are not even remotely in touch with reality. Politics is a swinging pendulum. Sometimes it swings a bit further out and then those are progressive election years and great strides are made, finally. Other years the pendulum doesn’t move as much. Those are elections where things stay pretty much the same, or perhaps regress a bit. This is normal. This is cyclical. Any student of history knows this much.
The Democrats who think that we’re going to 1. Get rid of Trump, 2. Make tremendous forward gains, with a two woman ticket, all POC cabinet, God knows what idiocy, are not grounded in reality, I’m sorry. Trump is in office because he’s an avatar of anger (as Rick Wilson put it) and he’s also a symbol of Obama backlash to a certain degree. Racism and misogyny are alive and well in America or we would not have what we have in the White House.
Point being, we are emphatically NOT going to kill every bird in the coup with one stone. It’s not going to happen. In 2020 we need to focus on taking back the White House and if “progressive” values are a little slower in manifesting, then so be it. We can scream about progressive values all day and all night and it avails us nothing if we’re not the party in freaking power. There’s a line in “Primary Colors.” I can only paraphrase it, “Yeah, I want to vote for the perfect candidate, the one with perfect values, the one who fought the good fight — and then watch the Republicans win again.”
Anybody who wants to drive nails in Joe Biden’s coffin is only helping reelect Donald Trump. And you bet the right wing is eating it up with a spoon. You’ve got that one right.
We cannot afford to screw up this election. This is the most crucial election in the history of this country and it cannot be screwed up. Maybe Joe Biden isn’t the perfect dream candidate. Maybe he’s got baggage, he’s too old, he’s not a POC, he’s not a female, on and on and freaking on — but he’s a good solid politician. He’s got visibility and name recognition going for him, and he is identified with a sane and decent administration. To knee cap him at this point in the process is sheer madness, in my view.
And I agree, Harris is no Obama. One thing Obama did, and it was very very wise, best thing he ever did — he never, ever, came across as the angry black man. He knew it was suicidal to do so. I don’t think Harris gets that. Don’t get me wrong — I like Harris. But I don’t think she’s the right candidate for this point in history. This point in history is about regaining the White House and healing the country. At least that’s the way I see it. Maybe I’ve got it wrong.
I’ll go check out HuffPo and see what’s what over there. I know Markos hates Biden, I’ve read all his anti-Biden pieces. Clearly, I think that’s not only the wrong attitude to take, I think it’s suicidal. Man, I hope we don’t eff up this election. That’s all I can say. Dear God, please don’t let the Democrats eff up this election. I’ll be good, God, I promise. I’ll never do anything bad again. Just don’t let the Democrats screw up 2020.
I don’t cheer Biden’s demise. I just think his time has passed. How long does the ruling class on both sides of the aisle in DC mean to be content? Even with platinum healthcare coverage, most will be dead or in assisted living before next decade is done. The time for a new generation of leaders is NOW.