From everything I’m hearing, it’s still on for Trump to make another pathetic El Pendejo Presidente banana republic spectacle to triumphantly announce his campaign for the Presidency in 2024. Nothing could give me more pleasure. Because he’s walking into a political buzzsaw.
I recently wrote about how in the last 4 days, the traditional GOP long knives have come out for Trump. But ask yourself these two questions. Why, after 7 long years have a whole platoon of GOP operatives finally come out from behind Mama’s skirts, and started criticizing Traitor Tot, and demanding that the party move on? And why is the FUX News propaganda network giving them unfettered access to airtime? The answer is simple. Trump. Is. A. Stone. Cold. Loser. They can’t ignore that fact any longer, nor can they ignore the fact that Trump has to go.
Let’s start with the simple stuff. In the 2022 midterms, Americans made it crystal clear that they cared most about issues, and not ideological bullshit. The Democrats ran on abortion rights, racial equality, fixing the economy, and most importantly, the literal threat to our democracy from the far right MAGA agenda. The GOP, when it could remain on message, campaigned on The Gruesome Twosome, The economy and crime. Which could have worked against a President as unpopular as Biden.
Two problems for the GOP. It turned out that the American people are Smarter than a 3rd grader, which makes them twice as smart as a Republican. The current voting population of the United States is younger and more savvy than the older, less educated, scared GOP base. They understood that while they might hate inflation, there is little that the President or a party can do to control it. And when it came to crime, they realized that if you want to lower crime, you change the Mayor! There is little a Governor or Senator can do about that.
In the wake of Tuesday nights results, The Democrats response to the Trump debacle has been pitch perfect. Both Biden and Schumer have praised the results as a thorough repudiation of far right MAGA authorian goals. The Democrats are well aware that there is a full blown civil war going on in the GOP, and they’re more than happy to throw gasoline on that fire.
But here’s the real reason why any Trump run in 2024 is doomed to failure. In 2016 Trump lost the national popular vote by some 3 million. In 2017 he lost 40 seats in the House, and earned 2 impeachment trials for his trouble. In 2020 Trump lost by 7 million votes and lost the Senate as well, giving Biden a popular mandate, which he followed through on. Trump. Is. A. Loser.
But here’s what binds the cheese. For more than 50 years, the GOP has used winks, nods, coded phrases, and dog whistles in order to use overt racism to their advantage, while maintaining plausible deniability for the non racist portion of the population. Trump changed that. He embraced overt racism, and sought out and coddled far right racist and anti government groups. This wasn’t a bug, it was a feature.
But nowhere was that more evident than in the fallout after the 2020 election. Led by constitutional law ignoramus John Eastman, Trump embarked on a nationwide campaign to overturn the election through the courts. Which went down in flames like the Hindenburg. Trump went 1-63 in court challenges, and the only one he won was a procedural suit that didn’t change a single vote.
And then the Trump GOP jumped the shark. They made it perfectly clear that the 2024 goal for Trump was to use the 2022 midterms to put election deniers in sensitive elective positions that would allow the GOP legislatures to overturn the popular vote on palsied charges, and send Trump electors instead.
Which just went the way of the dookie bird. In PA, Democrat Josh Shapiro won the Governor’s mansion, which allows him to pick a Democratic Secretary of State. In WI, Democratic incumbent Tony Evers won re elections for Governor, giving him stoppers over the legislature. In MI, not only did the Democrats sweep the statewide offices, but also flipped the legislature for the first time in 40 years. In NV, the only statewide the Democrats lost was for Governor, where Steve Sisolak became the ultimate Covid victim, but they increased their margins in the legislature. In AZ, Trombie election denier Kari Lake is down, and looking lost, and the Democrats won the AG and SoS spots. And in GA, Kemp and Raffensperger, who defied Trump in 2020 are still around, and no more likely to help him in 2024 than they were in 2020.
If Trump makes it through the primaries, he’s toast. He can’t win the national popular vote. Coming out of 2020, Trump’s entire 2024 strategy was to use slavish acolytes in GOP controlled statewide offices and legislatures in critical swing states to send alternate slates of electors to the electoral college. But that’s all gone now. While His Lowness may have sent 168 slavish Trombies back to the House, he lost every critical statewide office to make his plan come true in 2024.
And one more thing. We already know that Trump no longer has a viable path to victory if he survives the 2024 Mango Messiah bolted and formed a 3rd party, taking his 30% GOP base with him, which would sink the entire party in 2024. As a firm believer in the two party system, it grieves me to say that I can’t see how the GOP can fix this shit soon enough.primaries. But if another candidate like DeSantis beats him in the primaries, he’ll devote his life to destroying him. I wouldn’t be surprised if The Cheeto Prophet bolted from the GOP to form a 3rd party, and take his 30% base with him. As a firm believer in the two party system, it grieves me to say that the GOP mainstream can’t fix this soon enough to avoid a debacle.