Nikki Haley’s Campaign Strategy Is As Bad As Ron DeSantis’s

Oy. I’m sure that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley thinks that the first 48 hours of her campaign have gone just swimmingly. After all, she didn’t botch her rollout announcement like Traitor Tot did, held her first campaign rally to what looked like an acceptable size crowd. So far, so good.

And she got a head start on the media circuit. She talked NBC News reporter Craig Melvin to a draw, simply by refusing to directly answer any question she didn’t like. And she even got CNN’s Don Lemon to apologize for a comment he apparently made on air referring to her as being past her prime. Personally , I get Lemon’s point. She left the Trump administration midway through his term, and has basically been radio silent ever since. Even when she was exploring making a run, she didn’t do the usual feeling out trips to Iowa or New Hampshire. Being publicly absent for six years is not a good place to start generating enthusiasm for a presidential run.

But all is not well in Haley world. Believe me, I started covering Trump in 2015 when he clanked down that peeling gilt escalator. And when I see Haley’s strategy in the 1st 48 hours, I’ve seen this movie before. She’s doing a remake of Titanic.

I wrote yesterday that FL Governor Ron DeSantis was already having trouble with his campaign messaging. His whole schtick was to be Trump without the baggage, while he’s busy collecting a Pullman car full of his own baggage. And already, in the first 48 hours, while Haley’s strategy may be radically different, it’s no better.

It is clear that Haley’s strategy is to run her own race, in a moderate lane, and avoid any head-to-head confrontations with His Lowness. She has already made that clear in her statements. Last night friendly Sean Hannity on FUX News asked Haley where her programs and policies differed from Trump, a perfectly legitimate question. And today on the Today Show, Craig Melvin asked her a question about FrankenTrump, and her response was the same for both, I don’t kick sideways, I kick forward. Uh-oh.

Her plan is simple, tootle along in her own moderate lane, speaking to her own voters, and avoid engaging with Trump.  There’s just one problem. Traitor Tot is like a drunk driver on the interstate, on his way to a 30-car pileup. It doesn’t really matter what lane you’re in, Sooner or later El Pendejo Presidente is going to be all over it.

Haley already has a basic problem. Mainly the fact that there aren’t any moderate GOP voters anymore. In order to become competitive Haley is going to have to peel off at least some soft Trump supporters. Her current talking points are as exciting as cottage cheese. And it’s already showing. In a new Quinnipiac poll taken just before Haley announced, Trump is at 42%, DeSantis is at 36%, and Haley is eating dust at 5%. And while the poll was taken before Haley announced, DeSantis is already lapping her, and he hasn’t even announced yet.

Trump isn’t wasting any time either. First, he gleefully to to Bullshit Social to hammer as a RINO with Bush policies. Then he returned to mock her on the Quinnipiac poll numbers, telling her to get out of the race and stop embarrassing herself and her family. Hair Twitler is already scoring points, and he hasn’t even hit the road yet!

And we’re still waiting to find out if mega turds like John Bolton and Mike Pimpeo jump into the race. And if they do, then they’re going to occupying lanes somewhere between Haley and Trump, certainly slopping over into her lane.

This could be a cautionary tale to both of them. Right now, Haley has the moderate lane all to herself, and she’s harvesting mushrooms at 5%. If she gets to May or June, and hasn’t at least gotten into the teems, then there’s no reason for to even bother jumping in. And if Haley gets to July in single digits, then it’s time to take one for the team, and drop out. If DeSantis picks up her 5%, then it’s a 42-41 toss up race.

I can think of one logical reason why Haley may be running. Haley has a history with Trump, and she’s largely avoided criticizing him at all costs. Likewise, Trump has been unusually deferential to Haley. If she can pick up some moderate voters in the campaign, then she raises the possibility of becoming Trump’s running mate, so he can try to reap those votes.

But the GOP has to be careful here, because they’re edging into their nightmare scenario. Pretty much everybody in the GOP who isn’t named Trump, wants Trump gone. A two-way race gives them a shot. But if Haley stays in to prove her creds, and Bolton and Pimpeo jump in, you have an instant replay of 2016. Trump will roll up a huge delegate lead in the early winner-take-all primaries, and when the field finally winnows, nobody can catch him. And if that happens, then it’s four more years in the wilderness for the GOP.

Scott Walker saw this as clearly as I did in 2016, and used his withdrawal speech, beore the first primary votes were case, to tell the GOP to clear the field for one candidate to confront Trump. They didn’t listen, and for the same reason. In 2016 everybody in the GOP field saw Trump as weak and vulnerable. And you know what? That’s exactly the way the potential GOP candidates see it today. If they believe they even have a prayer of winning, then there will never be a better opponent to run against. And The Mango Messiah will win the GOP nomination. Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Here endeth the lesson.