Democrats faced a tough Senate map in 2024 and frankly it’s not much better for 2026. The GOP has a built in advantage when it comes to the Senate and we learned a bitter lesson last November that even successful and well-like Democratic Senators from Red States face a steep uphill climb (John Tester in Montana for example) in the Trump era. Granted, New Hampshire isn’t a Red state. It’s kind of purple, as in recent times sending Democrats to the Senate but electing Republicans as Governor. Current NH Gov. Chris Sununu is popular and Republicans were licking their chops at the prospect of him grabbing the Senate seat currently held by Democrat Jean Shaheen who is retiring. However, Sununu has announced he won’t be running!
According to Newsweek Sununu’s decision comes as a major blow to the GOP which apparently was counting on him to run. New Hampshire is a competitive state to be sure. As I said while Democrats have won Senate seats they seem to want Republicans in the Governor’s mansion. Kamala Harris won the state in 2024 but only by three percentage points. Shaheen’s announcement she’d retire at the end of her current term was a big setback for Democrats. Granted, early polling showed her nine points behind Sununu but that would have tightened up next year even if Trump wasn’t making such a mess of things for the GOP. Shaheen was polling well ahead of other likely GOP possible candidates however so who knows? She might consider running for another term after all.
For now what’s important is that Sununu is NOT going to run and the GOP both in New Hampshire and down in DC, especially in the Senate can’t be happy about it. Trump never forgets a slight, and for damned sure doesn’t forgive. Sununu’s backing of Nikki Haley would have grated on him but he wouldn’t have trashed the guy next year because keeping control of the Senate, even if the GOP loses the House is critical for him. It’s the Senate after all that holds the ‘Advice and Consent’ role when it comes to Presidential appointments.
I’m sure you’re thinking it’s early spring and that there’s plenty of time for Sununu to change his mind before the filing deadline. If you’re enough of a political junkie you also think since New Hampshire is such a small state a last minute decision to run won’t be an issue financially. That was my reaction when I read the headline of the Newsweek article. However reading the actual article where Sununu described what went into his decision I’m thinking his decision is final:
Sununu confirmed his decision not to run in comments to local televison news station WMUR.
“I’ve done eight years, and it was a hard eight years as governor. To sign up for the Senate, you’re really signing up for 12 more years, so that’s a commitment I hadn’t really put into the mix, and, again, it’s just not right for my family at this time,” he said.
I can understand that. And believe him when he more or less says he needs a break from politics. However I also believe this: Chris Sununu is still a relatively young guy and though he’s going away for now we’ll see more of him. If you read his Wikipedia profile I linked to you’ll see he’s smart (an engineering degree from M.I.T.), and a successful politician. As Republicans go he’s considered moderate and there’s something not mentioned in his profile. He comes across well on TV. He was mentioned as a possible GOP Presidential candidate back in 2023 but chose not to enter the fray. I’m betting it was because he DID have Presidential ambitions and didn’t want to get tarred and feathered running against Trump. He was happy to let someone else (Nikki Haley) take the proverbial hit.
Sununu can build a platform for a campaign that would appeal to Republicans tired of Trump’s sh*t and wanting some normalcy again, and also with Independents. Hell, in his early career as an engineer he worked on environmental stuff! And of course keep in mind that he’d be a shoo-in to win the very first primary which as we all know is in his own state of New Hampshire! I’m quite certain he’d do very well in Iowa too. Perhaps even win. He’d also be competitive in South Carolina due to his support for Haley who by then will have voters upset with her for taking on Trump in a more forgiving mood. That makes for one helluva start to a Presidential campaign!
However tempting as a Senate seat might be, it would mean getting caught up in all the mess Trump is creating. It’s my opinion Chris Sununu wants to sit on the sidelines for at least a year and watch others duke it out. And take the political hits for either supporting Trump or not doing so. Or not supporting him enough. If as I believe his goal is to be President why put himself in the spotlight during what are going to be some of the most tumultuous in our history? Why go “on the record” as either for or against what Trump, the President of his own Party who PAINTS HIS FACE ORANGE wants to do? If discretion is the better part of valor then for Sununu this is a time for some serious “discretion.”
He’ll make token campaign appearances I’m sure. But it will be rather bland stuff. For now his future is best assured by avoiding the spotlight. So we are left I think with three things: 1) Chris Sununu won’t run for the Senate next year, and 2) If Shaheen sticks to her own retirement plans Democrats have a quite good chance at holding her seat, and 3) A couple of years from now, in 2028 as the field of candidates for both Parties begins to build we will see Chris Sununu announce his own bid for the White House!
****** Zoomers, we would happily accept a small donation to defray expenses as we trek through cyberspace. It’s going to get a lot crazier, that much we can guarantee you. Thanks. Ursula ******
