Americans have voiced plenty of ambivalence over the 2024 presidential election, with some voters even saying they’d prefer not to vote for Donald Trump or President Joe Biden. But in all likelihood, Biden or Trump are the only candidates we’ll be stuck with. Ron DeSantis has finally dropped out, and Nikki Haley has about as much chance of being the nominee for the Republican Party as I do of turning into the Statue of Liberty.

I hope Biden is paying attention because he’s done little campaigning, and Trump, four indictments and 91 felony charges against him notwithstanding, is gathering steam, weirdly, because of all this. Because Republicans.

I’ll probably never, ever understand them.

But the bad news is, that Morning Consult’s 2024 tracking poll shows Trump leading Biden by 5 points (45-40). This is the largest margin of victory Trump has held yet in the survey, which has been in effect since December 2022, according to Mediaite.

At the beginning of the poll, it found that 43 percent of Americans would back Biden in 2024. Only 40 percent would support Trump. And for most of 2023, Biden leads over Trump, with the former president pulling ahead intermittently. But as the year drew to a close, Trump led considerably more often.

Of the nearly 2,000 surveyed, 46 percent said they held a positive opinion of Trump, while 44 percent thought favorably of Biden. Additionally, the prospective Republican nominee had fewer respondents (51 percent) say they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump than Biden, (53 percent).

The respondents cited several concerns — the economy, national security, jobs, crime, and healthcare were the foremost issues voters identified as being “very important”  when it was decision time at the ballot box.

On each of these issues, Trump scored an advantage with voters, except when it came to health care. This is a big change from 2020 when Biden won the popular vote quite easily and even won the Electoral College by more than 70 votes.

While Biden successfully gained the White House, his win was predicated on an extremely narrow margin of victory in several key swing states. This includes Georgia, where Biden bested Trump by .23 percent, Pennsylvania (1.17 percent), Arizona (.30 percent) and Wisconsin (.63 percent). I’m sure this makes you realize that Trump could lose the popular vote and still retake the White House come November.

Ugh.

In a story from last December, Mediaite reported that a set of Morning Consult polls conducted in seven key, battleground states, found that Trump is favored in ALL of them. But while Biden declared he was running in June 2023, he kept things pretty quiet, which was perhaps, not such a good idea. Now, however, his campaign appears to finally be picking up steam, and he’s leveled some attacks at Trump.

Earlier this month, NPR reported Biden’s reelection campaign was ginning up with a pair of presidential campaign events that were planned around the anniversary of the failed attack on the Capitol building. At the time campaign manager Julie Rodriguez said “We are running a campaign like the fate of our democracy depends on it. Because it does.”

“The threat that donald trump posed in 2020 to american democracy has grown even more dangerous than it was when president biden ran last time,” said deputy campaign manager quentin fulks during a call with reporters earlier this month.

I’m glad the Biden campaign is gearing up but I’m very worried that “dictator-for-a-day” Trump will gain too much ground.

I hope I’m wrong.

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6 COMMENTS

  2. I find all this polling 11 months out to be of little to no value. With abortion and democracy on the ballot this year, I’m expecting more of a landslide election for the Dems. We’ve been outperforming estimates in nearly every election since 2018. Remember the Red Wave, that wasn’t, in 2022? My biggest fear is complacency and a repeat of 2016 when everyone assumed it was safe to vote 3rd party because they weren’t thrilled with either major party candidate.

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  4. Who is this “polling” firm talking to? Seriously. Dingleberry is looking more and more like he has serious cognitive issues; looking like it in public frequently. One of the bigger issues, women’s reproductive healthcare, is polling way the f*ck against dingleberry in some very important demographics for him: (r) women, independents, and way the hell against him with dems. Every time anyone talks to people they admit the economy is getting better. So where are these “voters” who want to put a demented dictator into the w.h.? Want to put him in after f*cking up so very badly in the four years he previously squatted in the oval. I want to know the areas in which this “polling” took place. If it’s in pig’s fart, red state U.S. then A) hardly a poll worth looking at due to looking a single demographic and B) See A.

    f.f.s We’ve been seeing, for YEARS, that polling has been less than informative so why are we looking at one in January? Hell, the “pollsters” weren’t getting it correct in Oct/Nov 2016 (Hillary winning) OR 2020 (red tsunami) suddenly they’re spot on in January 2024? Really?

    Biden is busy actually doing the job of president so probably a taking care things other than circus sideshows…I mean political rallies. Do we need to GOTV? Oh hell yeah. Do we need to worry about a substandard poll in January? Oh hell no. Should we be reminding voters of who exactly fucked up so bigly that Biden had to do the job of prez or else the nation would have gone into a deep recession or maybe even a depression? Should we be reminding voters who put three morons on the s.c. who could not wait to overturn the precedent Roe? Should we be reminding voters of who not only committed treason against the U.S. but wants to do it again and install himself as king? Yes to all of this. Should we be shitting ourselves because some firm “polled” people this far out from the election? No.

    I might start worrying in October after mail-in voting starts and we see this crap but even then I will be remembering how badly polling firms are at polling.

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  5. Another crap poll. Iowa’s turnout was about 15% of the GOP electorate. People are WALKING OUT of Trump rallies. These polls are questionable. But the press seems hell bent to suppress the Democratic vote. 10 months out.

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