Oh, I’m going to enjoy writing this one. Those of you who read me know I’ve never been a Kyrsten Sinema fan. She’s a political opportunist and a total flake. All you need to remember is her flouncing across the Senate floor like caricature of a scorned woman to swing her arm theatrically over her head and present what she thought was a John McCain thumbs down. Nice try Lady, but McCain had quiet class. You came off as a burlesque loser.
Sinema came out yesterday and grandly announced that she was leaving the Democratic party to become an independent. Color me shocked. After all, this is this woman’s 3rd political party in 20 years! She started her political life as a Green Party candidate, until she realized that Green party candidates had trouble getting elected to school boards. So she switched to the Democratic party, and rode the 2018 Blue Tsunami to beat Trumptard Martha McSally. And has been a Democratic pain in the ass ever since.
Sinema fancied herself as the Sancho Panza to West Virginia turncoat Joe Manchin’s Don Quixote. She used her outsider status in the 50-50 Democratic party to gain far more influence than any junior Senator should have. But to her credit, since I want to be fair here, she also used her willingness to reach across the aisle to help to negotiate GOP support for bills that otherwise might have failed.
But Dame Fortune frowned mightily on Sinema on December 6th. Her and Manchin both. Fetterman’s win in PA, coupled with Warnock’s victory in GA, gave the Democrats a clear and lasting 51-49 majority in the Senate. Which diminished both her as well as Manchin’s power and influence. Schumer now only needed one of them to get a Harris tie breaking vote. Even worse, it would only take 1 Susan Collins or Lisa Murkowski to cross over and make her totally irrelevant. And Biden has a nasty knack of proposing shit that moderate GOP Senators can vote for.
Sinema pulled this cheap stunt today for 2 simple reasons, elo self fulfillment and political reality. To her mind, by switching her affiliation from Democratic to Independent, Schumer and the Democrats can no longer count n her as a reliable Democratic vote, they have to negotiate with her, increasing her influence in the party. There’s just one problem. In order to keep her prize committee assignments, Sinema has pledge to continue to caucus with the Democrats. Maybe she should ask Bernie Sanders and Angus king how much of a free agent that makes you.
The second reason goes far beyond simple ego and influence, and straight to political survival. In the futuristic thriller Blade Runner, robotics savant Eldon Tyrell told the replicant Roy Batty, A candle that burns twice as bright only burns half as long. And you Roy have burned so brightly. Kyrsten Sinema is currently one of the most universally hated politicians in Arizona. She is cold, aloof, clannish, seldom meets with constituents, and prefers to make decisions based on her own desires as opposed to the desires of her constituents.
And as a result, in a recent hypothetical head-to-head 2024 Democratic primary poll between Sinema and uber popular Iraq war veteran, congressman Ruben Gallego, Sinema trails by a devastating 74-13 result. If she runs as a Democrat in 2024, she’ll be crushed in the primary, and her career is toast.
Therefore, the dick move. In declaring herself as an independent, sinema is trying to recreate the Utah model. In the 2022 midterms, the Democrats had no candidate that could even seriously compete with Mike Lee in Utah, and so they left the Democratic Senate seat blank in the primaries, and threw their support behind Utah independent candidate Evan McMullin. That’s the model Sinema is trying to reproduce in 2024, force the Democrats to leave the Senate seat open and back her, or she splits the Democratic vote, and the GOP candidate wins. If that isn’t the Webster dictionary definition of selfish, I don’t know what is.
But there are two problems for Sinema in this calculation. The first one is that the McMullin gambit didn’t work! Democratic support wasn’t universal, nor was it large enough, and there weren’t enough sane Republicans to get McMullin anywhere near over the finish line.
And that should be a cautionary tale for Sinema, cuz here’s the 2nd part. The Democrats hate her! Sweet Jesus, the Arizona Democratic party censured her for failing to meet the expectations of her constituents. They have threatened to pull all state support from her and back Gallego instead. Running as a Democrat in a primary, Sinema is currently at 13%, and that total is likely to go down after this stunt. As an independent in a general election, shed be lucky to garner 4% of Democratic votes.
But here’s the McGuffin. Sinema’s calculus is that if the Democrats oppose her independent run, she’ll draw off enough votes to hand the seat to the GOP, something the party would be loathe to do. News Flash Cactus Barbie! Tain’t happening Dooley. For 2 reasons. In a general election, Democratic voters will rally behind the Democratic candidate, not a turncoat renegade.
Here’s the 2nd, more important reason. Whatever happens, Trump is still going to be the dominant voice in the GOP for the 2024 election. And as such, I can damn near guarantee you that he will hand select another brain dead, unelectable acolyte to run for Senate against Gallego. And rather than nihilistically drawing unified Democratic support from Gallego and giving the seat to the GOP, what she’ll do instead os to draw sane GOP voters who can’t vote for the Trumptard, and won’t vote for the Democrat away to her independent run, giving Gallego an easy glide path to victory.
Kyrsten Sinema has always been a political flake, more interested in self aggrandizement and fundraising that in actually serving her constituents. But in these polarized times, the Democrats are more united, and the GOP is more fractured, and the mushy middle of both the Democratic as well as the GOP are more interested in leadership and results, and less interested in bullshit. And so are the young voters, and there’s no reason to believe that they won’t show up in 2024, especially if His Lowness is on the ballot. Sinema has no viable options.
That is a very astute assessment. I think you are right.
I hope you are correct. I just see this dumb-ass stunt of hers as drawing off enough votes to give the seat to the ‘pubes. Yes, I think you are spot on about former guy still having a voice in AZ ‘pube politics but he is pretty damned popular down there. The silly twat put herself into a corner and this was the only possible way to keep her senate seat in her next election because she absolutely would get primaried and lose that primary. A supreme dick move, more so than what she has just done, would be to lose the primary and THEN change parties. Quite frankly, I’m surprised she didn’t do that.
She had choices. She could have joined the democrats in shifting the massive stealing of wealth by corporations back to her constituents, stood with the caucus to enact Biden’s agenda, stop playing footsie with fascists, meet & listen to her voters, try being genuine & concerned about the oaths of her office…she could have…but didn’t & won’t. I didn’t feel sorry when Dorothy threw water onto the wicked witch nor will I for her when she melts down the road. Ding dong the witch is dead in the water waiting to be sunk.
Sure she could have done that. Problem is then she would just be a jr. senator and be expected to actually work at her job rather than showboat at it. According to Franken, you can be a work horse or a show horse. This twat decided to be a show pony and it has bitten her in the ass. She had choices and she blew it. Good riddance even if the seat does go to a ‘pube and if it does, it can be put squarely on her shoulders.
As I previously observed, Sinema has always presented herself as greedy, self-absorbed wholly owned subsidiary of big business. I believe th’t with the current mood in Arizona and the right wing flakes kicking and screaming that they lost a place at the public trough, Sinema is in for a big surprise, and I don’t think it will be holding onto her senate seat. It is long past time for the public to propose a constitutional amendment toat limits terms of members of congress and provides for the recall by any state that sees the error of its ways after electing a useless representative. Of course such an amendment would have tough going, given the creating of a career path with platinum benefits for politicians, few of whom ever were truly committed to improving the lives of anyone but themselves and their cronies..
I live in Arizona. She is my senior Senator. I love Mark Kelly and will always support him. He does a great job in the Senate. However, with Sinema, I know that she is going to do nothing for her constituents, only what her cooperative donors want her to do. In 2024, when she is up for reelection, most voters in this state will vote for anyone except her. Even a moderate Republican would be better.