During the Trump administration, E. Jean Carroll, a journalist with a television show (at the time) called “Ask Jean,” accused Trump of raping her 25 years ago. As president, Trump denied it with the “too ugly to rape” defense, saying “she’s not even my type.” (In a deposition, he mistook her picture back then for his wife, Marla Maples). She sued him for defamation. Meanwhile, New York changed its statute of limitations for sexual assault (in part to provide justice to people who were assaulted as kids), and her defamation suit became a civil suit seeking damages for raping her.

The trial starts tomorrow with jury selection. If there was ever a trial in which one would invest tens – perhaps hundreds, of thousands of dollars on jury experts, this would be the one. They will get the politics out first. There will be red and blue in that jury box, obviously. In New York, a verdict can be rendered if five out of every six jurors agree. In a case this large, it will likely have twelve jurors, so if ten of them are in agreement, they can render the verdict. One or two red-hatted MAGAs that lied through voir dire can’t throw a wrench into the system.

I am planting my flag.

This trial is more important to Trump’s future than the New York criminal indictment (Not more important than Georgia or Jack Smith’s investigation).

Trump can’t blame some D.A., politics, or any of his other typical persecution grievances. This is him against a proud woman. She isn’t doing this for money. She is not doing it to “get back at him.” She is doing this because she believes she was raped. (The jury may not believe her account, but she certainly does). She has been through a living hell to bring this case, simply wanting accountability.

The parties must have agreed to allow Trump to testify by deposition video only because even though the issue is rape, this is a civil case. Carroll’s lawyers could call Trump as the first witness. Both parties have their reasons, obviously. In fact, as things stand, I don’t believe that Trump is even showing up to the trial. He is scheduled to be in New Hampshire.

But given all the criminal issues surrounding Trump, whether it’s espionage, or racketeering (Georgia possibility), I think that people haven’t really absorbed the power that a civic jury verdict would have. A jury could find it more likely than not that Trump raped a woman.

That has to be a re-set and I am not sure that the nation is really aware of it. If Trump wins – because it’s hard to beat a 50-50 “He said, she said,” then you can bet he’ll “trumpet” the victory. But how long can that possibly last with all the other criminal issues hanging around? Yet, a finding that he raped her would linger even through the criminal allegations.

This case matters. Not as much as Georgia, not as much as everything Jack Smith is investigating, but it matters more than anything else happening in New York.

[email protected], @JasonMiciak, Substack: “I am going to cover the same subject in more depth.” 

Help keep the site running, consider supporting.


  1. Fingers crossed, this goes to a jury verdict and is not settled. I don’t know her financial situation, but given the career she had, she should be comfortable enough to not need the money as much as vindication that she told the truth.

  2. Trump’s sense of outrage must be hotter than our universe was when the Big Bang happened. He did everything he could to keep this from happening, to be in effect on trial for RAPE. Sure, he’s disparaged women he’s groped, sexually assaulted and raped and even settled up financially with plenty of them that we don’t know about over the years. But that was just telling a Cohen type “make this go away” type thing. Even the average woman in relative anonymity is reluctant to bring charges because she’ll have her name and reputation dragged through the mud and with someone as vindictive as Trump has been known for so long to be most women wouldn’t even try to get some type of financial settlement.

    But he’s run into someone who has decided to confront him head-on. And not just over groping or pussy grabbing but RAPE. He disparaged and bullied all along and even used the power of the Presidency to try and get her to shut up and go away. But Carroll has refused to be silent, and in the face of all Trump has thrown at her refused to quit.

    “Nevertheless, she persisted.”

    I rather suspect that like some “icons” who turn out to be child molesters once that first person finds the courage to publicly challenge them via the legal system prompts many more to come forward Trump fears the same thing from this case. I could be wrong but I think a case out in CA that had been dropped due to the threats she’d received has been revived, and this woman was a minor when Trump raped her. How many others? And how many have evidence that can stand up to scrutiny in court? I could be wrong, but I suspect Trump knows damn well that there are simply too many others who, seeing Carroll’s courage decide they too will speak out. And he fears an unending stream of court cases “outing” his predatory, “when you’re a star they let you get away with it” nature.

    Things, as in legal problems (“bigly” ones) are spiraling out of Trump’s control. And on top of all that he’s fast approaching a financial calamity. A sort of “balloon payment” for hundreds of millions in debt not to his Russian oligarch pals (who are probably giving him the evil eye) but from actual financial institutions who can force him and the Trump Org. into bankruptcy and his whole house of cards will come tumbling down.

    If I’m right, I’m going to enjoy the living f**k out of watching his fall.



Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

The maximum upload file size: 128 MB. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Drop files here