Jordan vs. Scalise Round 2 Coming Up. It’s Just A Question Of When

If Demolition Derbies, or perhaps circular firing squads (using water balloons filled with urine) are your thing House Republicans are gearing up for another show.  Regardless of how the the matter of a government shutdown plays out it seems clear Moses Mike Johnson’s days as Speaker, or even Minority Leader if Democrats regain control are numbered.  And who knows? The GOP ‘Krazy Kaucus’ might engineer Johnson’s ouster as early as next month.  That brings up the question of who would the GOP turn to as their Speaker/Minority Leader. (Please let it be that second one) Two big names in the GOP seemed possible a year ago but “Gym” Jordan reneged on a deal to elevate Steve Scalise so Scalise responded and blocked Jordan which is how we got Johnson. Now it seems we are heading towards another showdown between ole Jimbo and Steve.

There’s a detailed article in Politico that delves into what’s been taking place. Jordan can downplay his ambition/goal all he wants but as the article indicates he’s been hard at work trying to mend fences and position himself to take over for Johnson.  Here’s the thing though. This time last year the biggest concern with Scalise, the one that opened the door to Jordan’s delusions of grandeur was health. Scalise had undergone cancer treatments after all and wasn’t as ‘vigorous’ as many House Republicans would have liked. However as the linked article notes those days are long past. Scalise seems fine and healthy.

More importantly he’s not forgotten how Jordan tried to snake him.  Regardless of how you feel about Scalise when it comes to policy positions he’s always been a serious legislator who worked hard to learn the ropes and work his way up into the top leadership of the GOP caucus. Jordan was always more of a grandstander who got his committee positions mainly to throw sh*t bombs. He’s never in his career passed a single piece of legislation he created.  Getting things done, working with various committees and factions within his caucus to actually DO stuff was never his thing.  So when the GOP caucus collectively went ‘Yosemite Sam’ and shot themselves in the foot dumping McCarthy they found themselves in a bind. There were worries about Scalise’s health and worries that Jordan didn’t have the institutional knowledge and fundraising heft for the job. Between those two ‘big names” there was no clear option but the f**kery that went on was known to all:

Nearly a year ago, Scalise first won the GOP nomination to succeed former Speaker Kevin McCarthy after the Californian was ousted. Yet a combination of angry McCarthy allies and Jordan’s Freedom Caucus backers made it clear they would oppose him on the House floor, and he pulled out of the speakership contest a day later. Then, when Jordan won the nomination, the same tactic was flipped on him as Scalise allies, institutionalists, centrists and appropriators blocked the Ohioan from the gavel.

Things got pretty ugly. More than bruises resulted. Some proverbial blood was drawn. Worse was once again the whole country was looking on and wondering what the hell was wrong with House Republicans. The spectacle of days of votes and the sh*t show of finally awarding McCarthy the gavel was talked about again. With this longer fight over replacing him the House GOP proved the old adage that no matter how bad something is (in this case their image/credibility) it can always get worse.  Now it looks like the GOP is getting ready for a new internal fight of epic proportions. At first glance Jordan’s skullduggery a year ago would seem to doom his chances.

Still, as Politico says Jordan seems to have gotten more serious about nuts and bolts kind of stuff including and especially fundraising, and spreading that money around to other House members who need help this year. He’s also making efforts to get around and make appearances on behalf of people, especially centrists (or what passes for one in the GOP:

He’s made more inroads with centrists and vulnerable members, however. Jordan’s campaigning for House Republicans goes beyond those who opposed his speaker bid, bolstering his credentials throughout the conference. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) thanked him publicly for helping her rake in campaign cash earlier this year. He appeared in Texas with Budget Chair Jodey Arrington. And he made a recent swing through deep-red Arkansas, including attending an event with Rep. Bruce Westerman.

It’s safe to say that while Jordan is trying to play coy he WANTS to be Speaker. Or at least Minority Leader.  In very UN-Jordan like manner he’s been hard at work out of the spotlight working for votes from the caucus. However Steve Scalise is one tough, savvy operator. He’s healthy and HE wants the top job.  He’s not about to just roll over for Jim Jordan. Again, it’s a given that Johnson’s days are numbered. He was always a ‘caretaker’ or ‘placeholder’ Speaker/leader that was a bland, whitebread dude that would make everyone say ‘WHO?” that could get the GOP past the very public debacle they made for themselves last fall. He’s never had the gravitas for the job, even if he’s convinced he’s chosen by God to have it.

Johnson is gone and it’s only a question of when. However keep an eye out. If Johnson pushes through a “Clean CR” he’s in the same boat McCarthy was. A single House member can call for a vote to remove him. And I can think of several who are insistent on having a shutdown NOW (or at the end of the month) who might go ahead and pull the trigger out of spite.

That will put Leader Jeffries and Democrats in an interesting position. A repeat of last year with early voting underway is pure gold for every Democrat on every ballot. However depending on what work has to get done and the GOP election interference in the works Democrats might not have a choice but to, in the short-term save Johnson’s gavel.  Stay tuned because we could be in for quite a wild ride next month.