Joe Manchin’s Ready To Blow Up the Senate. Has Exit Plan To Leave Dems If His $1.75 Trillion Version Of BBB Doesn’t Pass

This is not something that you see everyday. Joe Manchin has been discussing an exit plan from the Democratic party in the eventuality that he can’t prevail in the Senate on the $1.75 Trillion version of the Build Back Better plan, which he has been touting over the $3.5 Trillion bill on the table. Manchin is opposed to key provisions such as Medicare and Medicaid expansions, expanded child tax credit and climate change. It’s been speculated that these provisions cannot be compromised on, and if that’s the case, Manchin may bolt from the Democratic party altogether. Mother Jones:

He told associates that he has a two-step plan for exiting the party. First, he would send a letter to Sen. Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, removing himself from the Democratic leadership of the Senate. (He is vice chairman of the Senate Democrats’ policy and communications committee.) Manchin hopes that would send a signal. He would then wait and see if that move had any impact on the negotiations. After about a week, he said, he would change his voter registration from Democrat to independent.

It is unclear whether in this scenario Manchin would end up caucusing with the Democrats, which would allow them to continue to control the Senate, or side with the Republicans and place the Senate in GOP hands. In either event, he would hold great sway over this half of Congress.

Without Manchin’s vote, the Democrats cannot pass the package in the 50-50 Senate. And a vote on this measure is key to House passage of the $1 trillion bipartisan road-bridges-and-broadband infrastructure bill the Senate approved in August. (Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an Arizona Democrat, has also been a problem for the party.) Manchin has met with Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), the chair of the Senate Budget Committee, Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and a variety of his fellow Senate Democrats this week in an effort to strike a deal. Through it all, he has insisted that $1.75 trillion is his top and final offer, and he has constantly said no to proposed programs that almost every other congressional Democrat supports. He has told his fellow Democrats that if they don’t accept his position, they risk getting nothing.

Manchin told associates that he was prepared to initiate his exit plan earlier this week and had mentioned the possibility to Biden. But he was encouraged by the conversations with Sanders and top Democrats that occurred at the start of the week and did not yet see a reason to take this step. Still, he has informed associates that because he is so out of sync with the Democratic Party he believes it is likely he will leave the party by November 2022.

This is stunning to contemplate, but if Manchin has to leave the Democrats, then 2022 would be the time and not now. And this puts into perspective another issue: this razor thin margin by which the Democrats hold the Senate is not a good thing. We need to get more senators in place in 2022 and 2024. Holding the House and expanding the lead in the Senate should be top priorities. Now passing Build Back Better has taken on the tones of a hostage negotiation, and that’s not surprising considering how slim the margin is.