When it comes to statewide high office like Governor, or national office like President, the first thing that always comes up as a subject in the incumbent’s coattails. The premise is that having a popular Governor or President on the top of the ticket can bring out more voters, who will presumably vote the same down ballot, bringing some weaker candidates over the finish line.
I have said for more than 3 years now that Donald Trump has the shortest coattails I have ever seen. Whereas most Presidents wear anything from a suit jacket, all the way down to a full Fred Astaire monkey suit with spats, His Lowness is stomping around in a windbreaker. And finally, someone much more influential than me has picked up on it.
In her A-Block tonight, Rachel specifically spoke about Trump’s waning political influence. She noted that These days, Trump is riding the schnide. His chosen one in the Pennsylvania Senate primary had to skitter off when it came out that he was accused in court of tuning up his spouse. His chosen Alabama candidate has dropped well behind a more moderate GOP candidate in the primaries. And his choice in a Texas special run off election got his head handed to him. And The Cheeto Prophet has been pushing like hell for a GOP Senate rebellion to boot McConnell from his leadership position, and nobody is paying any attention. How long have I been saying that Trump’s magic only works for Trump?
And here’s a bonus. In the 2021 Virginia Governor’s race, the local GOP did everything in its power to insulate Youngkin, going with a convention to stave off a messy primary fight for an electable candidate. And in the general election, Youngkin did everything but build a wall to keep Trump out of Virginia in the campaign. And Youngkin won handily.
Here’s why this is important. Like a retarded orangutan wearing a red suit and white beard, Santa Trump has made a list, and he’s checking it twice. He has a whole slate of candidates that he is ready to endorse to run in primaries against the great unwashed of the GOP who have dared to defy him.
And from here on out going into 2022, it can only benefit the Democrats.
Every primary race that one of his vaunted Trombies loses only serves to weaken his hold, not within his base, but within the party itself. The current GOP wisdom is that you must have Trump’s support, or face a primary from the right. But if Trombies keep losing in primaries, then especially going into 2024, more moderate GOP candidates will see a path to victory. And the party in general will start to wonder just how popular Trump really still is.
And if the Trombie candidates win, especially in House districts, then the Democrats still win. There’s a reason why there was a moderate GOP incumbent in that seat, because it is likely a swing district. And GOP white women voters in those districts don’t like Trump! They bolted from him before, in 2018, and they’ll do it again in 2022 if they think they’re getting a Trump redux candidate.
So, whatever you do, don’t give up and just sit out 2022. No matter how hard he tries, Trump just can’t seem to sell his lower ballot clones. Maybe because every time he does a rally with them, he spends all of his time talking about himself. And I honestly believe that the Senate will pass at least 1 of the 2 voting rights act currently in front of it, undoing large swaths of damage done by GOP state laws. Keep punching, and keep the faith.