In 3 Days The Wait Is Over. And There’s Only ONE Thing You Need To Watch For

Ladies and Gentlemen! Start. Your. Engines!

Screw 63 days. Sh*t gets real in just three days. Because starting on Friday with North Carolina, and resuming on Monday with Minnesota, the first mail in ballots will be mailed out to voters. And at that point, while the campaigns will continue, for all express purposes we are in the 2024 general election.

And once that happens, you can start to pivot the focus of your attention away from the polling numbers, both nationally as well as in the battleground states. I don’t mean to ignore the polls, you still want to see what the trends are, mostly because those are what groups like 538.com, The Cook Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball will use to characterize the race and the general outlook of specific races. But for non-political junkies, there’s something much easier to understand you can look at.

And I’m talking about returned early mail in and absentee ballots. Once those start coming in, most states tend to release either a weekly or bi-weekly summary of the number of mailed out ballots that have been returned. There is no indication of who the voter voted for, just the number of ballots returned.

A couple of simple guidelines to remember. As a general rule, early and mail in voting tend to favor Democrats, and same day voting tends to favor Republicans. That’s why when you hear someone like Steve Kornacki on MSNBC, when discussing returns say, These are almost entirely early and mail in ballots that have been counted, so this is likely as good as it’s going to get for the Democrat, now we have to see how much the GOP candidate can chip away at that lead, that’s what he’s talking about.

But recently there’s been an extra twist thrown in there. It used to be that both sides recommended early and mail in balloting, and as a result, turnout was better for both sides. The Democrats still had an edge, but it was smaller.

But starting in 2016, fearing an electoral trouncing by Clinton, in the early summer Traitor Tot started casting early and mail in ballots as being rife with voter fraud, and made it a matter of party purity that GOP voters vote only in person on election day, giving him the premise for The Big Steal! In the Covid election of 2020, Biden stomped Trump by some 7 million votes, so Trump would have lost the national tally no matter what. But we can only wonder. What would have happened if 14,000 more GOP voters and 20,000 more GOP voters had voted early or by mail in Georgia and Arizona rather than sitting the election out? A mere handful of voters in each precinct could possibly have turned the tide.

And this cycle, while the campaign is literally begging voters to use early mail in and in person voting, El Pendejo ex Presidente himself continues to slam it in his rallies and far right media appearances, setting up his bitch fit if Harris spanks him like Stormy Daniels in November, but still making it a badge of honor to vote only on election day.

And as much as people who try early and mail in voting love the convenience, people who found it easy to sit out November in 2020 during Covid, may find it easy to do so again in 2024, especially if Trump is far behind in the polls on election day.

Here’s what I’m going to be looking for when the numbers start to come in. I’m only going to be looking at early returns for the battleground states. And if over the first 3-4 weeks the Secretaries of State in those states are reporting record or near record early returns, then the Trump campaign is going to have cardia kittens.

Here’s two reasons why. First, since Harris became the nominee, there has been near record new voter registration in all or nearly all battleground states. Since FrankenTrump has done nothing to inspire new voters to come out of the woodwork, one can safely assume that these are new Harris voters. And everybody knows that new voters tend to be motivated voters to show up one way or another.

Second, right now the Harris campaign is riding a high-speed bullet train of enthusiasm. Democrats wubs dem some early voting, and what better way to clear your plate than return your e-mail or absentee ballots, and your job is done. And as long as these newly registered voters get their ballots in the mail, they’re likely to return them right away.

And almost immediately there’s an opportunity for Harris and the Democrats to open the spigots. Because next Tuesday is the presidential debate, that’s 57 days before election day. Fifty-seven days is also right about in the wheelhouse when some of these undecided voters start making up their minds. Trump v Biden got healthy ratings. Look for Trump v Harris to blow that higher. And if Traitor Tot makes a horse’s ass of himself in the debate, and continues spewing for days, look for another surge in early mail in ballots as some of those undecided voters grab a lifeboat from the SS Trumptanic.

Here’s what comes next. After the first couple of weeks of early mail in and absentee voting, some of the earlier states are going to start early in person balloting. And again, look for extremely high if not record early in person voting. It will mean the GOP is in the Trumpster Fire. Personally, Teri and I find the NV mail in ballots a wee bit confusing, so vote early in person. This could really benefit the Democrats in states like NV, AZ, GA, and NC, where the fall temperatures are warmer and with less rain than other states entering fall.

Here’s why all of this math lesson is so important. When Biden topped the ticket, Trump and the GOP enjoyed a +9 edge in highly likely voter enthusiasm. But since Harris-Walz kicked it into overdrive, the Democrats have flipped that and now enjoy a +14 edge. If that shows up in early voting, the GOP will be hard pressed to generate the kind of election day enthusiasm they need to overcome those early Democratic banked votes.

And it might get even harder. Forget about the slobbering Trombies, they’re a lost cause. But the bulk of the GOP is more moderate, and they likely don’t get all of their information from FUX News and far right media. They can read a poll, and digest facts and figures. And if they see the Democrats begin banking early votes in amounts approaching the GNP of Sweden, they’re going to be uneasy. Especially if Trump remains behind in most of the major national and battleground polls, they may see a suitcase with a broken handle. It ain’t going anywhere. Which could depress voting day turnout even more.

I love this kind of stuff for the simple reason that it’s simple and understandable, with none of the ambiguity and uncertainty of polling. These are official state numbers, and numbers don’t lie. Early voting favors Democrats, that’s a fact, and the more votes the Democrats bank early, the harder it becomes for the GOP to overcome that mountain on election day. Now you know what to look for.

I thank you for the privilege of your time.