If GA Is A Trump “Canary In A Coalmine,” He’s Teetering On His Perch

We’ll know in about 30 hours, but it appears that the handwriting seems to be on the Mar-A-Lago bathroom wall. Barring a nuclear holocaust, GA GOP incumbent Governor Brian Kemp figures to waltz into November with about a 30 point blowout over Trump’s handpicked stooge, David Perdue. And incumbent Trump mortal enemy Brad Raffensberger will survive the primary to a runoff, again besting Trump flunky Jody Hice.

One analyst said over the weekend that a blowout Perdue loss to Kemp would be the most devastating loss Trump has suffered since his own 2020 loss. Because Trump personally had skin in the game. He hand picked Perdue, convincing him to run, and then used his influence to clear the field for Perdue, meaning no split MAGA vote. Trump made 4 trips to Georgia to campaign for Perdue, basically performing his Stop the steal Greatest Hits Tour. And worst of all, he personally put some $2.6 million into the race via his Leadership PAC. A Kemp blowout would be bitter wormwood.

There are fundamental differences in the Raffensberger-Hice race. Trump anointed Hice early, but made no attempt to clear the crowded field for him. Trump also hasn’t spent much time or effort in hitting the road for Hice, and most importantly, he hasn’t spent a dime on the race. My personal feeling is that Trump saw a runoff coming, and while Hice is his man, why waste money and effort in the primary. Trump is keeping his powder dry for the runoff, where it will matter more.

But there is a lot moving around under the surface in Georgia that you might not be aware of if you’re not watching for it, but it’s bad news for Trump. It appears that there is a growing, at least loosely organized resistance to Trump brewing in the moderate wing of the GOP. It appears to me that they are trying to loosen Trump’s grip on the party by helping to hand him multiple, high profile losses in the primaries, making base voters start to doubt his political omnipotence.

It appears that several former high ranking Trump acolytes are having their Et tu, Brute? Et tu? moments. Former NJ Governor and early Trump supporter Chris Christie, as well as current AZ GOP Governor Doug Ducey have hit the trail in Georgia to stump for Kemp. And Trump’s own Vice President, Mike Pence, is on the stump in Georgia, ending with a rally with Kemp tonight. Ducey’s efforts appear to be at least partially self serving, as he’s eyeing running for the Senate in November against Mark Kelly, and Ducey is on Trump’s shit list. Making Trump endorsements look weak early may mitigate its damage to him.

Then there’s the fact of entire GOP dominated state legislatures rising up as one to defy Trump. As I have previously written, there is strong evidence that the North Carolina GOP legislature purposely redrew the map to make it harder for Fratty Maddy Cawthorn. They slid the line over just far enough to put the wildly popular Senate Majority Leader into Cawthorn’s district, where he won. And the blood red Tennessee legislature actually passed a law removing an insane Trump carpetbagger from the ballot. A judge threw out the law, so the legislature went back, tweaked it to the judge’s satisfaction, and passed that one as well, getting the lunatic off of the ballot.

But since it’s Trump, it can always get worse, and it does. In an almost unprecedented move, the RGA, the Republican Governors Association is putting somewhere in the neighborhood of $3 million into the primaries this year. Normally they sit on their cash for the general election, but they got the memo. Trump endorsements have more baggage than Paris Hilton. The RGA already threw some cash into the Nebraska Governor’s primary to stop Trump’s hand picked serial groper from possibly turning Nebraska into another Kansas debacle. And they also hopped into the Idaho Governor’s primary to keep the insurrectionist upstart Lieutenant Governor from ousting the sane incumbent. It worked both times. And now they’re propping Kemp up in Georgia to humiliate Trump as much as possible. And it looks like it’s going to work again, too.

Over the weekend, an MSNBC analyst summed up Trump’s dilemma perfectly when he said that, When it comes to the power of a Trump endorsement, it appears that it’s limited to open seat races. And he’s spot on. Look at Trump’s major successes, Vance in Ohio, likely Walker in Georgia tomorrow, quite possibly OZ in Pennsylvania, and Mastriano in same. But when there’s an incumbent in the seat, his morons tend to get shellacked. The logic is simple. When you have 8-9 howler monkeys nobody has ever heard of hurling shit balls at each other, Trump’s endorsement can raise one from the pack. But Trump’s personal popularity, and his infantile petulance isn’t enough to sway voters who have already voted for, and like the incumbent. It makes sense, and if he knows it, then it’s highly likely that the RGA and the anti Trumpers know it too, which will help them pick their battles.

It’s going to be interesting to see where this goes. If Mitch McConnell has one thorn in his side, it’s the Insane Clown Posse Trump is recruiting and endorsing. If the RGA has success, will the RSCC start dumping money in primaries to get electable candidates on the ballot? And what is Trump going to do to punish the turncoat acolytes?  They’re already on the outside.  Oddly enough, it’s Pence who should worry Trump the most. In a recent 2024 GOP likely primary poll, Pence shot ahead of Nikki Haley into 3rd place, behind DeSantis and Trump. If Pence decides to run in 2024, I can easily see a scenario in which Trump and DeSantis beat each up for the Trump base, while Pence cruises an inside lane made up of grateful moderate GOP voters who are sick of the insanity. Hey! Stranger things have happened, like 2016. Don’t touch that dial.