I’m not sure why this rumor is going around that Democrats are wondering about replacing Joe Biden. That is not the case from every single credible source I can find, including the Biden-Harris Twitter account, which assures us of just the dead opposite. Joe Biden is still the Democratic nominee, period. But CNN is off running with this fact free conspiracy theory and I guess that’s just what we’re going to have to deal with from now until election day and beyond. There is a divorce between what is actually happening in the political world and what the networks believe will sell products and so we have to juice up our already complex lives with rumor and baseless conspiracy theory. Take a listen.
Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it. But Professor Lichtman is not repeating anything.
He’s predicted the last 9 presidential contests.
WATCH WHAT HE HAS TO SAY ABOUT JOE BIDEN.pic.twitter.com/4zYc2qlnJA
— Grant Stern (@grantstern) June 30, 2024
Here’s a background piece on Lichtman and his keys.
Like so many other good ideas, I came across the keys serendipitously when I was a visiting distinguished scholar at the California Institute of Technology in southern California in 1981.
There I met the world’s leading authority on earthquake prediction, Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the head of the Institute of Pattern Recognition and Earthquake Prediction in Moscow and it was his idea to collaborate. Get this: In 1963 he was a member of the Soviet Scientific Delegation that came to Washington D.C. under JFK and negotiated the most important treaty by far in the history of the world: the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
Keilis-Borok said, “In Washington, I fell in love with politics and always wanted to use the methods of earthquake prediction to predict elections.” But, he said, “I live in the Soviet Union – elections? Forget it. It’s the supreme leader or off with your head. But you, you’re an expert in American history and politics, together we can solve the problem.”
So, we became “The Odd Couple” of political research and we re-conceptualized presidential elections in earthquake terms: As stability – the party holding the White House keeps the White House, and earthquake – the party is turned out.
With that in mind, we looked at every American presidential election from the horse-and-buggy days of politics, the election of Lincoln in 1860 to the election of Reagan in 1980, using Keilis-Borok’s mathematical method of pattern recognition.
Forget the polls, forget the pundits.
Polls six months, five months, even closer to the election have zero predictive value.
Forget all of the pundits who have said Biden’s too old. Democrat’s only chance to win is with Biden running for re-election. One of my keys is incumbency, he obviously wins that. Another key is party contest, he’s not been contested. That’s two keys off the top that Biden wins. That means six keys out of the remaining 11 would have to fall to predict his defeat.
I’ll go along with the professor’s comment that Republicans have no principles. I don’t know about Democrats having no spines. I think the problem now, to be completely honest, is not the Democrats but the media. All kinds of anonymous sources were found on Thursday night and yesterday and today who are ready to throw Joe Biden under the bus. Editorial boards of major newspapers are out after Biden’s scalp. I think it’s a manufactured crisis more so than it is a real issue in the party.
Let’s just put it this way: it’s too late to change horses in midstream. We’re going to ride this out. Until I hear something compelling from somebody in authority, like the Biden-Harris campaign itself, I’m not going to believe that the conspiracy theory we’re all being subjected to right now is anything other than that.
Lawrence O’Donnell explained on his show that anyone who is still undecided just isn’t tuned in to politics, and probably didn’t watch the debate. So its effect will be minimal.
That said, I believe Biden should focus on his strength, doing the work of being president, and not try to compete with Trump for media attention. There are many Democrats who can be effective surrogates on the campaign trail. When the GOP taunts, “Where’s Joe?” the answer is obvious:”In the Oval Office, doing his job!”
A manufactured crisis, or as I’ve heard it called elsewhere, a media beat-up. Perhaps the billionaire owned media see it as their last chance to control or set the narrative?
So tired of BOM/MSM for years… lies of omission just became outright lies of stupidity. & side note for Australia: gee thanks for saving our roo azz back in ww2!!!… you can import a real dozy of an ahole in Rupert 👍👍👍 (🤦🏻♂️). Just peaked in at empty wheel. Post by rayne: nyt 🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️the grey lady is one sorry bish. 🤷🏽♂️
CNN….Closet Republicans! I quit watching them when I see how much they seem to favor the “R”s. DONE!
“Republicans have no principles…democrats have no spine!” EXACTLY!!!! Boys and Girls we better find some backbone and FIGHT BACK! Can you even imagine what the Republicans would be doing daily on the airwaves if we switched the candidates??? Look what they do with MANUFACTURED BULLSHIT! This is a goddamn war with child killers…this is no time for timidity. FACT.
I gave up.after 15 minutes. Every word that vomited forth from Fat Donnie Donuts pursed mouth and every disrespectful expression was a lie.
I get a medical.newsite. The first story was an explanation of how over the counter drugs like Nyquil affect the body. They cause a slight slurring and can cause cognition issues. I can vouch for that. The only exam in one class in which I had a 95% A average but a bad cold I doctored with ofc cough meds so my constant coughing wouldn’t interfere with everyone else’s concentration brought down my test score to a 70 and gave me the only B Ingot in my classes. Shoulda stuck with my grandmother’s Irish remedy ( honey, lemon and whisky). In other words, Joe had a,severe cold and the meds screwed with his concentratiin, and combined with his stutter, made him.look weak. Didn’t help.he had to debunk every single lie Donnie spewed forth, and it takes longer to explain a complicated issue than it is to.gloss over the facts with a vicious lie.