The conventional wisdom is that Democrats would be facing long odds in retaining control of the Senate this year. Republicans would only be defending 10 seats and in solid red states. The rest by Democrats and Independents who caucus with Democrats. West Virginia was almost certain to be lost by Joe Manchin who chose to retire instead so that seat is gone. Arizona was a concern with Sinema possibly splitting the vote but now that she’s decided not to run we’re in a better position to hold that seat. Montana is a toss-up so fingers should be crossed John Tester can hold it. Ohio won’t be easy for us to hold either, and with WV sure to be flipped we can’t afford to lose either one.
So what does this have to do with McConnell? Well, Yertle has been in the news several times in the last week or so. He announced he’d be stepping down as the GOP’s Senate Leader at the end of the year. He also announced he’d endorse Trump. And he picked Alabama Senator Katie Britt to deliver the “official Republican response” to the SOTU. I’ve been mulling all this over and have come to think perhaps McConnell has information we don’t. What you ask? He’s a despicable, evil man but he knows his stuff and he keeps a close eye on what’s going on around the country. He’s beside himself over recent cycles where Trump candidates have flamed out and cost the GOP control of the Senate.
Democrats barely control the Senate as it is. And if you look at this breakdown from Ballotpedia you can see how things stood as we entered primary season. McConnell it would seem had reason to be optimistic about Republican’s chances.
McConnell’s dream was to retire as Majority Leader. (Having a GOP President would be a bonus but he really, really wanted that title Majority Leader when he retired. That would allow considerable more “honors” to rain down on him. And also allow him to in another couple of years retire and name a replacement to ensure his Kentucky seat would have an experienced incumbent when the seat came up for election again. But while he had good candidates picked for various races, Trump stuck his nose in McConnell’s business and got HIS people (like Dr. Oz and Herschel Walker) nominated. And they went down to defeat which is why Yertle is MINORITY Leader right now. Trump has been too busy with legal problems to screw with things as much this time but still I think McConnell is worried.
I can guarantee you that in addition to RNC polling ole Mitch has his own numbers in each state that’s having a Senate race this year. Could it be he sees the handwriting on the wall, and that for all the talk by pollsters and pundits about the GOP being in a good position to flip control of the Senate Mitch no longer thinks that will happen? That’s why the recent news/actions stand out to me.
Forget about him endorsing Trump. That’s not news. If Satan was the GOP Presidential candidate and Jesus was on the ballot for Democrats McConnell would still stand in front of the cameras and dutifully intone “I support the GOP Nominee for President.” That would be the case even if it was the Jesus depicted in the bible instead of the GOP “Jeebus guy. You know. “Prosperity Gospel” Jeebus who says to hell with the poor and suffering. Or “Assault Weapon Jeebus”, the one MAGAs have posters of wielding his AR-15. So again, Yertle endorsing Trump doesn’t factor in.
The other two things? That’s where it gets interesting. Stepping down from his position as Minority Leader has had me wondering ever since the announcement. WHY? I say again he really, really wanted, even coveted being Majority Leader when he retired from the Senate. When Manchin said he was done Yertle already knew knew things were at 50-50 come the next Congress. In his heart I think he believes Trump will lose so a Democratic VP would still be there to break ties and keep our side in control. Still, he had at least two and possible three seats the GOP could flip. Again, conventional wisdom was he’d get at least one of them, if not two and given how increasingly red Ohio has become perhaps three.
Arizona was a blow. Worse, as it became apparent Colin Alred would be Ted Cruz’s challenger in Texas an awful lot of resources were going to have to go into protecting THAT seat. In freaking Texas! I know. We keep getting our hopes in in Texas and keep getting them dashed but Cruz only won be three percent last time. Since then he’s managed to make himself look even worse to Texas voters. And yes, abortion will be on the ballot and it’s not like politicians at the state level like Cruz any more than his fellow Senators do. Every dollar and other bit of effort that goes into protecting Cruz’s seat (and Texas is huge both geographically and in population which means it takes a LOT to win there) is money and effort that can’t be invested elsewhere! However, McConnell can’t take it for granted and therefore spend time and money he didn’t want to have to invest in Texas.
Could it be possible McConnell has enough solid internal polling to have come to the conclusion that at best the only pickup the GOP will get is Manchin’s seat in West Virginia? And, even worse that Democrats might pick up a seat? I think that’s entirely plausible. “Get out” while there’s still time to collect some of the accolades he craves. If there’s a sh(t-show over who will take over GOP Senate Leadership in the meantime if the Democrats hold control he can always blame it on that. HIS legacy will be secure. Just not quite with the ending he’d hoped for.
Here’s something else to ponder but admittedly it’s pure speculation. McConnell and Biden have known each other and worked together for the better part of four decades. No, they haven’t been friends but they had a working relationship even after Biden left the Senate to become VP and then President. The could do business with each other so to speak. THAT means staffers for each who were the same. Think about what we saw from President Biden Thursday night.
I’m sure McConnell didn’t know just hard hard and how often Biden would punch Trump and the GOP in the nose, but I’d be willing to bet he got enough tipping off that Biden was going to play hardball. And THAT would deflate the entire age thing. I despise how he’s used his political gifts (which are considerable) but if McConnell looked coldly and practically at things he probably realized that since this will be Biden’s last campaign for office, he not only could be but WOULD be the Joe Biden he knows from working and fighting out issues & compromises behind closed doors. And again, with the public seeing THAT Joe Biden if there was to be talk of being too old, cognitive decline or lack of energy it would wind up being focused not on Biden but on Trump.
That in turn would free up Democrats to start punching and punching hard all the way down the ballot. So I think it’s more than a little possible Mitch McConnell came to the realization he wouldn’t be Majority Leader again, because the GOP wouldn’t regain control of the Senate. Which brings me to the other thing. Ursula posted an interesting article here on Politizoom suggesting the possibility Yertle putting up Katie Britt to give the GOP response to the SOTU was a “f**k you” to Trump and MAGA. Both have cost him a dream he’s long held. And Mitch McConnell is one wily bastard, and yes he’s got a vindictive streak of his own. I have no trouble believing that given what Trump has cost him that if McConnell could find ways to shove deceased and rotting elephant carcass up Trump’s ass, sideways he’d do so in a heartbeat.
Admittedly pretty much all of this is speculation. However, I look at the information in that Ballotpedia piece I linked to, the political lay of the land and that thanks to Alabama reproductive rights will almost certainly be a top issue this fall AND that Biden was, even before Thursday night letting Dark Brandon off the leash a bit. Put it all together and if I’m right that McConnell has internals in some of the states that I’ve talked about showing Democratic wins then yes, he’s decided that when the votes are counted the GOP will have failed to retake the Senate.
We’ll have to wait and see but keep an eye out. And if you can find a way to support candidates in some of these key races. It doesn’t have to be money. It can be phone banking. Sending postcards, and if you live in one of these states contacting your local Party to canvass in person. Drive people to the polls. Anything you can to help.
Great read, gives me hope for the possibility of Democrats holding the Senate.
I hope you’re right in that he sees the political wind is blowing our way, but I think it more likely that his health is failing and he wants to get off the stage before he falls off it.
Why not both?
Spending any money in Texas is going to be extremely difficult for Cruz as Don John will bleed the coffers dry to cover his own a$$ legally and politically.
Heck, by the time he’s got the sheeple to pay his legal bills there probably won’t even be enough to cover anyone running for dog catcher
Oh heavens, when you said “Don John” what immediately sprang to.mind was,Keanu Reeves in that role from.Much Ado About Nothing, playing him like Snidely Whiplash. Which actually worked pretty well since Shakespeare wrote like A moustache twirling villain with absolutely no subtlety. No unlike Fat Donnie.
In normal times, yes, these are not even close to normal, Senator Tester would not have a care in the world about getting reelected. This sheehy trash claims his “seal” service/credentials make him so much more the better candidate, and then in the same breath declares his love for the mango moron–the one with such contempt for our service members, veterans, etc. Support for the idiot which one has to wonder about since he did a LOT of biz with China after his turd emperor tried to put the kibosh on such things. Montanans however are about right up there intellectually with the folks in MS, AL, TX: dumber than a box of rocks. Jon’s ads thus far show law enforcement’s support for him-he’s sent some nice amounts of cash and equipment to the state-and from the farming/ranching community who you’d think would smell this sheehy from a mile off. Former guy did nothing to get farming/ranching support, the opposite in fact, but it seems like memories are rapidly evaporating things any more.
Unfortunately, this sheehy person is wealthy-guess doing biz with the enemy is good for one’s bottom line. He won’t need anything the rnc might have left after trump robs them blind. Montanans DID defeat, soundly btw, the “born alive” ballot referendum and a Right to Abortion constitutional amendment was SUPPOSED to be on the ballot this November–kndusen, rather than do his job is instead playing politics so it is anyone’s guess if it’ll make it to November’s ballot. A smart senate candidate, and Jon is that, ought to be able to make much of these people getting in the way of Montanans making their own decisions about their own bodies, lives, etc. And Montanans really don’t like to be told what to do.
We lose Manchin’s and Tester’s seats, but pick up Cruz’s and Rick Scott’s seats, so a net “no change.”
Barring a POTUS catastrophe, the rest of the Dem Senators should hold their seats due to;
1. Women voters. They will (hopefully) turn out in DROVES because of the GOP attack on reproductive and others rights being stripped away.
2. Younger voters. It goes without saying that they NEED to turn out, for their own habitable future…
3. Older (sane) voters (especially independents. If the GOP takes over the Senate, they WILL begin their assault on Medicare AND Social Security, There is your wedge issue.
4. Minority/Immigrant voters. Need to remind them what happened during Trump’s first term; it will be FAR worse for them the second time. Dems need to clearly explain the concept of “voting against YOUR best interests.” I feel for the Palestinian People, but to vote against Biden? Guaranteed Trump will finish them off alongside Netanyahu.
my dos centavos are going to colin allred. polls are showing them even right now.
“…since this will be Biden’s last campaign for office, he not only could be but WOULD be the Joe Biden he knows from working and fighting out issues…”
One of the more astute bits of critical analysis I’ve seen this entire year. Thank you.
Sometimes the most obvious tends to elude us. Think, think, think about WHY President Biden said he got into the presidential contest back in 2019. He’s seen enough of trumpy. And now, after four years of knowing what a mess trumpy left for him, and doing a wonderful job of cleaning it up, he will refuse to let the idiot have the keys to the car ever again. Mr. Biden will not hold back this time. Why should he?
I look forward to having a gentleman who has nothing to lose explain to the American public just why the crazy guy who has everything to lose would be such a disaster if ever elected again. While he’s at it, he has included the entire republicon party as well. They deserve it.
Let’s Go, Brandon!
there’s another state you need to consider in your equation…..Wisconsin. Baldwin is up for re-election vs Eric Hovde. Hovde lives in CA and is rich rich rich. Us cheezers sent Michael’s packing back to CT where he lives but Baldwin’s gonna have to prove what she’s done for WI in the years she’s been warming a Senate chair. yes, she votes “correctly” but isn’t really seen too much here except when others visit the state or some.other camera heavy event happens.
I think it’s going to be a nail biter. I really do. but if you listen to Ben Wikler ( head of WI Dems) you’d never know it.
just pay attention folks…..close attention.