Give Ukraine What They Want, And They’ll Finish It Off Themselves

Let me qualify that. Give them what they want within reason. For instance, there’s no good reason for the US or NATO to enforce a no fly zone. Russian forces are on the run, disorganized, demoralized, and most of the damage to Ukrainian cities are being done by long range artillery that aren’t covered by a no fly zone.

But other than that and nukes, if they ask, give it to them. They want tanks, give them tanks, they want those Mig’s, let ’em fly them in there. They want artillery, send it in by the truckload. Right now there is no reason for NATO or the US to do anything but what they’ve been doing. Don’t give Putin a bogus reason to claim an escalation from the west.

Because as we speak, Zelensky is kicking Putin’s ass. The Kremlin’s excuse is that Russian troops are retreating from Kyiv in order to give peace talks a chance. As my patron saint, Jon of Stewart says, If you smell bullshit, then call bullshit. Yes, sir! Bullshit!

This is not an orderly, well planned retreat. You can tell by what they’re leaving behind. In an orderly retreat, everything gets packed up and taken with you. The Russians are leaving weapons, backpacks, ammo, rations, stalled vehicles, anything that would weigh them down. There’s a military term for that, it’s called a rout.

You can also tell by the naked brutality of the Russian troops as they skedaddle. As Ukrainian forces are liberating villages and towns, They are finding hastily dug and filled mass civilian graves. They are finding civilian bodies laying in the streets, hands tied behind their backs, and shot through the back of the head. They are finding torture victims and raped civilian women. These war criminals know that they won’t be coming back, so they’re taking out their anger and frustration on the civilian population as they leave. Oddly enough, these are the exact same war crimes that the Russians accused the Germans of in WWII.

As a tactical strategy gamer, I have played this sequence at least 100 times before. For the Russians right now, the rule is simple, Trade distance for time. The Russians have been under constant small arms fire and bombardment for days. The Russian objective is to pull back as quickly as possible, until they are no longer in actual combat contact with the Ukrainians, normally 5-10 miles. This breathing space would allow the Russians to hopefully reequip, pull their battered units together, and create a new and cohesive line ready to meet the Ukrainians on the way in. And remember, they’re waiting for replacement Russian troops from bases in Georgia to finish moving forward, that would give them replacement men and equipment.

The Ukrainian forces can’t afford to let that to happen. It was reported today that the troops that had been defending Kyiv had been reinforced and resupplied, now that the siege was over with. Right now these troops are feeling like Zeus on crack with a winning March Madness pool ticket in their pockets. They are looking at the enemies back, and it looks real good!

Right now the ultimate goal for the Ukrainian forces is to move fast enough to keep the retreating Russian forces in contact. Don’t give them time to breathe and regroup. And to do that, they are going to need tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery. Because the longer the Ukrainians can keep the Russians under fire, the more disorganized they become, the farther they fall back, and the more difficult it becomes for them to reconstitute and make a stand.

Because, believe it or not, the Russians actually do have a plan, and it is possible that it could work. But there’s a basic flaw in their plan. Their plan is to break contact for the Kyiv assault forces, reconstitute and reequip, and then swing down towards the Donbas region to cut the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces fighting there. If they could do that, it would allow them to form a land bridge between the Donbas region and Crimea, which Putin could use as a victory to allow him to blow out of Ukraine.

Here’s the problem. The whole magilla depends on the Russian army being able to re tool and re equip in that lag time before they head for Donbas. But military analysts have estimated that Russia has already committed almost 50% of their full time army resources to Ukraine. The Kremlin just announced that they had just conscripted 130,000 new men, but it will take 8-12 weeks to train them. But the equipment is the problem. Thanks to US/NATO supplies, the Ukrainians have devastated Russian military power. Most of central Ukraine is a massive tank,armored vehicle scrap heap, and the Russians have abandoned an incredible amount of equipment that the Ukrainians just gas up, and drive off with. What are the Russians supposed to resupply and re equip with? 

At this simple fact is that right now, NATO and the US don’t need to do anything to give Putin an excuse to devolve the Ukraine debacle into WWIII. The simple fact of the matter is that the Russians are on the run, and the longer that Ukrainian troops can keep them retreating, the less of a chance that Russia can come out of this with anything. God knows they have the motivation, and they’ve shown they have the skills in spades. Give them what they need, and let them finish the job. They have no interest in anything less.