Don’t Underestimate The Effects Of The GOP Civil War In 2022


I just wrote an article in which I went into possible scenarios for 2022 that don’t necessarily lead to all of these doom-and-gloom predictions that many pundits are making for Democrats, but I purposely didn’t include this one in there, because I wanted to give it proper context and space.

This has only been going on for the last few weeks, and there hasn’t actually been any kind of a major flash point elevate it into national prominence, but it is just sitting there, simmering away under the radar, and sooner or later, it’s going to blow. And the later that is, the worse it will be for the GOP in 2022.

Let’s be honest, shall we? After all, that’s what I’m, here for. I have never intentionally bullshitted you, and striven to never even unintentionally bullshit you. If I’m wrong, I always try to own it. That being said, can we all please just agree that there are not enough core Trump supporters to win a national election? Oh sure, there are plenty of them to hold onto their safely gerrymandered House districts, and even some deep red Senate seats, but not enough to be a national threat. But even in 2020, with record turnout, Trump got stomped by 8 million votes, and needed traditional GOP voters to hold their noses and vote for him to keep it close.

This whole GOP Civil War burst onto the media scene a few weeks ago,  when Kreepy Kevin McCarthy moved to purge Liz Cheney from  her from the ranks of GOP leadership. But Cheney decided to not play the part of the sacrificial spring lamb, and went on the offensive in the media in stead. And then a group of more than 100 principled GOP conservatives joined into the fray, demanding a return to reality from the current GOP. and threatening to split off a 3rd party and fight them directly if needed.

But that wasn’t the start of the insurrection, not even close. The Never Trumper’s have been active since 2016. The Lincoln Project was a major player in both 2018 as well as 2020, and they’re not going anywhere. GOP veteran Olivia Troye’s Republicans for Accountability was active in 2020, and they aren’t going anywhere either.

Here’s where the rubber meets the road. In the post Trump era, what’s left of the GOP is so busy just trying to keep their 3 legged coffee table standing that they aren’t even paying attention to these insurgents. And if they keep that up, it is going to be a fatal mistake. Because they are ignoring the intensity of these groups that are arrayed against them. And that could well be a fatal mistake.

Here’s why. Because these are people who literally have nothing to lose! Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, Jennifer Horn, Mike Murphy, Olivia Troye, and all the rest of them are traditional Republicans. They are true believers. They have spent their lives following the principles of traditional conservatism, they have toiled in its vineyards, and they are not about to give it up without a gargantuan struggle. And that makes all of the difference.

Because these are the people that shitheels like Mitch McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, and Josh Hawley have spent decades running to for advice, counsel, and strategy. These people have more political brains and savvy for breakfast than the rest of these assholes have all year. And without them at their disposal, they’re left with a ragtag assortment of second and third rate hacks. It’s like having the US Olympic Dream Team going up against Lithuania.

So just keep an eye on this for now. Because it isn’t likely to explode anytime in the immediate future. These guys will keep their powder dry, and strike when we start getting closer to the primaries. But when they finally decide to really open fire, it is literally going to be a civil war. Don’t touch that dial.

Follow me on Twitter at @RealMurfster35

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  1. With all that said, the sane Republicans cited are also fools in the way only True Believers can be. I’m thinking particularly of Rick Wilson when I say this, running off his mouth about how Dems need to act this past week (which just happens to be the strategy that let the crazies into HIS former party). This crowd see themselves as the true movers and shakers when what they are disgruntled courtiers out to settle some scores and preserve their own safety. In fairness, that last one is kind of important. The next round of right-wing violence could well be them.

    • Again, you need to address Wilson’s points instead of empty ad hominem. You also need to defend your assertion that “that little rant is an encapsulation of how we got here in the first place.” Many of your comments imply that you are the one promoting business as usual, not him, while also denigrating those who see a threat that needs to be neutralized. Events have not progressed along enough for you to proclaim that your analysis has tuned out to be the correct one. You could well be wrong. the better part of prudence is preemptive preparation, not possible underestimation.

      • Let’s get something straight, Dana. I don’t need to do a thing except live and die. I’m wrong, fine, I’ll deal with it, wouldn’t be the first time and I’m still here.

        But to give you the answer to your implied question, it’s Wilson who is assuming out loud business as usual for the Dems in terms of strategy and tactics. He may or may not believe what he says (I’m going with “not”) but I never, ever forget that he and his ilk have the agenda of cozying back up to powerful people again. Since Liz Cheney has yet to complete her takeover of the American conservative movement, he’s goosing the shell-shocked liberals and Dems with Trump’s ghost. That helps with donations to Lincoln Project so they can keep it going.

        • Oh brother, way to equivocate on the word “need.” When you engage in discourse, there are rules of discourse at play. Those rules include eschewing ad hominem and address the actual points. It also include backing up assertions.

          Wilson is saying the exact opposite of what you claim. His whole point is that Dems need to abandon business as usual and meet the GOP threat headon whereas it has been you who keeps implying that the Republicans are nothing but paper tigers so Dem’s continuing business as usual is just peachy.

  2. Interesting observations from Murfster and comments. I would like to think there are conservative-ish people who would never vote for Trump or a clone of Trump, and I know a few, but will that necessarily prevent thuggery and ass-hattery in 2022? Just worrying. Glad P-zoom is back.

  3. You are so interesting! I do not suppose I’ve read anything like
    that before. So great to find someone with some original thoughts on this topic.
    Really.. thanks for starting this up. This website is one thing that’s needed on the
    web, someone with some originality!


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