Democrats Did Better At the State Level Than You May Realize

On this Saturday night if you’re like me you’re still in a combination of shock, grief and summoning resolve to fight back against the election results. However federal offices weren’t the only ones where voters made choices. It would be easy, especially given the news we hear and read to assume the GOP had a good run at the state level. Well, that did NOT happen. Nope, we held our own and even made some slight but important gains in some places!

Once again I want to emphasize that for all the nonsensical b.s. news outlets are helping Trump and the GOP spread it wasn’t a resounding, or even particularly solid GOP win. And for damned sure any claims of a “Mandate” are pure, unadulterated bullshiite!  Trump’s Electoral College win isn’t at all impressive by historical measure. (Nor was Biden’s in 2020 and Trump’s in 2016)

Also the crowing, some of which persists about him ‘getting a majority’ in the popular vote is also b.s. He’s fallen below 50% and in a couple of weeks when all the votes out west (mostly in California) are counted he’ll be closer to 49.5% than fifty. The House remains in the GOP’s hands but with even less of a majority than before. And over in the Senate 53 Republicans gives them breathing room but not much. Democrats lost seats in red states but two of our incumbents held on in states that went for Trump.  No, at the federal level 2024 was more like 2022 for the GOP. The predicted “Red Wave” was barely a tickle. Still, they got the White House (barely) and with Trump back the next two years are going to be tougher than the last two. We shouldn’t kid ourselves on that point.

That brings me to this article from Politico. It doesn’t paint a rosy picture. However it’s worth the time to read and digest their analysis. I think it’s worth doing, rather than just go with the ‘Well, it could  have been worse. A LOT worse’ judgement. Like all major outlets Politico wants to hedge its bets but if you take a close look some small but important things stand out. Even if the main thrust of the article comes early on:

The state legislative results were far from a triumph for Democrats. But they stand apart from the presidential race, in which Vice President Kamala Harris lost every single swing state — including states where Democrats made gains in state government or preserved their majorities. Democrats held onto a one-seat majority in the Pennsylvania House, flipped 14 seats in Wisconsin under new electoral maps, and broke the GOP supermajority in North Carolina, giving weight to Democratic Gov.-elect Josh Stein’s veto power.

Ten years ago I moved to NC so that last part matters a great deal to me. We swept the top slots where the whole state’s votes come into play. However, our legislative maps (both state and federal) are gerrymandered as viciously as any in the country. The GOP in this state is already pushing measures beyond what they did to outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper to strip the Governorship of its powers.  But now Stein can veto such changes.  The blocked quote above also notes goings on in Pennsylvania and more encouragingly Wisconsin. Democrats there believe they are set up to make significant inroads there in two years.

Special elections are going to matter. We have to help Democrats running in them after the first of the year. With money. Phone banking/texting and so on. Get involved. Once upon a time special elections were the province of the GOP but we’ve turned that around. Just because we took a gut punch at the federal level we can’t go and sit back and let the GOP gain the upper hand in such ‘low turnout’ elections again.

Next year keep an eye (and your effort) on Virginia. It’s one of those southern states that went to ‘off year’ elections to give the GOP an advantage. We need to make sure they stay at least light blue. It’s Saturday night and you might not want to do heavy reading tonight but I wanted to call the linked article to your attention. It really is worth looking at and maybe bookmarking.  Think about it. A big part of Democrat’s problem is that for too long we were a ‘every four years we have to mobilize’ Party. I think that what happened in 2010 finally woke up enough of us that midterms have increasingly become important.

In 2018 we showed what we can do even in a non-Presidential year. And our efforts two years ago were enough to hold back the Red Wave. We now know the importance of midterms. NOW we need to start treating state (and even local) elections the same way. EVERY election matters. It’s at the state level that things like redistricting happen. And many other things too. Ok, that’s enough for a Saturday night. But I hope those who’ve done me the courtesy of reading this take it to heart. And incorporate it into your thinking and actions in the days, weeks, months and even years ahead.

All Politics IS local. There are reasons why some of our candidates win in red places yet stay true to Democratic ideals and policies. We just have to get better at building a better local and state foundation.  We held our own in what turned out to be a tough election. Take heart in that. Then start figuring out what you can do to build on it.

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