Could Weed Legalization Measure Help Harris Win Florida?

For multiple cycles the state of Texas has been Democrat’s just out of reach dream. If not in a Presidential race then perhaps for a Senate seat. Each cycle those dreams don’t just get dashed but in retrospect look foolish. This year Democrat Colin Allred beating Ted Cruz is the dream. We’ll see what happens. Meanwhile across the Gulf in Florida the once unthinkable is now also being dreamed of. A year, or even six months ago the possibility of Florida going blue wasn’t even a slight hope.  Now, while the state’s not quite fully in play it seems like it might be after all. People have focused (and rightly so) on the ballot measure that would enshrine abortion rights in Florida. It’s going to get typically discouraged Democrats to the polls. What I didn’t realize until this morning is there’s another ballot initiative that’s generating buzz down there and it could be a difference maker. Of all things, it’s a ballot initiative to legalize WEED. Marijuana.

I’ll be the first to say what I know about Florida has been learned from afar. I’ve never been there despite having been to over forty of our states including Alaska.  I depend on the news and other reading, and conversations with people who live or have lived there. Frankly I don’t get the place.  I especially don’t get how/why Democrats as in the state and county Party organizations seemed to just give up and turn it over to the GOP. Hell, Obama managed to carry the state in both 2008 and 2012. However there have been signs this year that in at least some counties rank and file Democrats have gotten fed up with their Party “leaders” and organizing to fight back against the GOP. It’s an uphill battle to be sure but at least they’re back in the fight in some place.

In fact it looks like in more places than I thought. The abortion rights amendment is certainly a major, if not THE driving force that is getting Democrats and many Independents activated again.  Given the high threshold (60%) it will take to pass the ballot measure to protect abortion and reproductive rights passage is a dicey prospect. However as I said people ARE mobilized. Enough so that as this article from Newsweek suggests we might just see a ‘Hurricane Kamala’ hit Florida come election day. As the article says there are a confluence of events that could create a surprise result when the votes are counted on Nov. 5:

“Yes, Kamala [Harris] and [Tim] Walz have animated the Democratic base, but Florida is really in play due to a number of other factors—mainly because of the weed voters, even more so than the abortion question. Ballot initiatives in favor of legalizing marijuana across the nation bring out voters in droves and while not all of them vote ‘D,’ the lion’s share tend to be more progressive and that could tip the scales,” said Carville. “It’s not a lock—at least not yet—but [Florida] is definitely winnable.”

Again I want to emphasize my belief that Florida isn’t actually ‘in play’ this year but things suddenly seem like it might become so. The driving issue for first Biden and now Harris was having that abortion measure on the ballot. I keep looking at the famous “Villages”, those enclaves of senior citizens that have been a bastion of GOP support. An awful lot of those retired women who saw rights (not just abortion) they gained during their lifetimes being stripped away have I think been planning on doing some ‘ticket splitting.’ I’m starting to wonder if some are starting to think maybe it’s time to send Trump a more emphatic message than the last time his actual name was on the ballot back in 2020.

The signs are there that something’s afoot. Rick Scott is seeing what has to be a worrying trend and now finds himself in a real fight to win re-election. It doesn’t help that DeSantis has become so toxic and disliked that the GOP in general seems to be in a growing funk and infighting.  However it’s incredible to think that a ballot measure to legalize WEED might be the difference maker:

Cannabis: It’s a bit of a canard to believe that the vast majority of voters in favor of the legalization of recreational marijuana vote Democratic, but there is no doubt that, across the nation, the issue stokes turnout among “inactive” or “irregular” voters who tend to skew younger and more progressive. Polling indicated that the Florida ballot measure, known officially as Amendment III, is very likely to pass, and with that, hundreds of thousands of voters that haven’t showed up in past elections pulling the lever for Harris.

It was that ‘hundreds of thousands’ of voters in that that jumped out at me. That and the part about these not being typical voters. As Politizoom’s Murfster likes to keep reminding us polling models are based on the past – who’s voted in the past and whether they are still registered. And planning on voting again. He goes on to remind us that every year since 2020, hell 2018 over two million people turn 18 and are eligible to vote for the first time. Let me remind you that a large part of that is due to the efforts of some young (then) student in Florida in the aftermath of the mass murder at Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School. David Hogg is a young adult now and he’s been hard at work.

So you have new voters in Florida who aren’t part of polling models but are almost certainly engaged and they WILL be getting hit up to register and/or vote.  They already had abortion and reproductive rights to motivate them and now there’s another batch of them who because of weed legalization might well vote too. Do you think they are going to leave the Presidential race (or the Senate one for that matter) on their ballots blank?  And with seniors and weed there are TWO things to factor in. Personal (both medical marijuana but now that they’re retired getting to enjoy much better quality highs than when they were back in college!) and having some fun with the grandkids!  Talk about bonding – grandparents and grandkids getting baked together.

I know how crazy all this sounds. Once again I’ll say I’m not yet saying Harris can carry Florida but it’s not some pipe dream either. The trend is such that within weeks the state could truly be in play.  That’s a chunk of electoral votes Trump and the GOP can’t afford to lose. Being an old fart myself I have to admit I’m finding it almost funny that WEED of all things could lead to Democrats winning both a Senate seat and Florida’s electoral votes.  How much fun would it be to talk about a hurricane in a positive way?  Here’s hoping we really do see a ‘Hurricane Kamala’ hit Florida and lay waste not to actual buildings but the GOP there. (and in other places too)

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