Washington DC is about 2300 miles from me, but when the House Clerk gaveled the House into adjournment until 12 noon EST tomorrow, I could literally smell the GOP desperation flop sweat from here. And even that was a con job, because the original vote to adjourn failed, but the clerk let several GOP members change their vote after the vote closed.
MSNBC reporter reported that as McCarthy left the floor, he seemed more upbeat than he was when he went to the floor at noon. I can’t imagine why. McCarthy lost his first bid for Speaker by 19 votes, and he las lost every subsequent vote by 20. This is the Never Kevin caucus flexing its muscles. But McCarthy has had his whip group moving all across the floor for two days between votes, and he has held nonstop meetings himself. And he believe he has a hole to crawl through, but it’s incredibly dangerous.
Here’s the strategy McCarthy seems to be laboring under going into another long night of strategizing and meetings. And from those meetings and arm twisting sessions, McCarthy seems to believe that there are actually four rock solid NO votes, and the other 16 are or may be open to some form of negotiation. McCarthy can afford to lose no more than four votes, so he now has an off ramp to work with. But the path is narrower and more dangerous than the coal car track in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom.
To set this up I must bore you. According to House rules, to become Speaker, a nominee must accumulate One half of the votes cast +1. With 435 members, that means 218 votes. But here’s the McGuffin.
Every member casting a vote for Speaker must put forward a name. But there are two other votes that can be legally cast. Those votes are present, and abstaining. While they both show the member present, since they named no name,no actual vote was cast. And the tally is based on votes cast. So, if 10 people vote present, that lowers the magic number from 218 to 213.
That’s the gambit that McCarthy seems to be intent on playing. Hw has 16 votes to play with. The secret sauce is to increase his actual YES vote up to 213, and then get some Never Kevin’s to change their votes to present. Â That would allow McCarthy to win the Speaker’s gavel without reaching 218 votes.
But it’s incredibly dangerous for one simple reason. Because McCarthy only has 202 votes. He needs to change 12 votes, and then massage enough present votes to make 213 enough. Because the problem is that Democrat Hakeem Jeffries has gotten 212 votes on every single ballot. And if one single GOP House vote fucks up, if McCarthy doesn’t get to 213 votes, but the presents drop the ratio to 212 votes, then it’s Hello Speaker Jeffries!
This is what true desperation looks like. And right now the GOP is so desperate that they actually cheered when the House Clerk let the tardy vote changes go through and adjourned the House. This is what total dysfunction and disarray looks like. And if you honestly think that there is minds me of my going to be a Speaker confirmed tomorrow, you might want to think again. What I see in the GOP House right now reminds of my daughter’s favorite Barney the Dinosaur song, This is the song that never ends. It just goes on and on my friends.
So which risky play is more likely, Murf: what you just described or him bending the knee to the Dems?
Oh and the song is from Lambchop, not Barney.
As you say it’s a dangerous tactic but I don’t think McCarthy will go for it without some true “on record” promises and that record could prove problematic. Here’s why. As I mentioned responding to another article this business with cutting a deal with Freedom Caucus PACs has an awful lot, if not all the elements of a quid pro quo buying of votes and it’s for a specific purpose at a specific time to boot. I’m hoping Democrats are working the hell out of the pundit class, including lawyers with relevant expertise to start talking up the potential illegality of the deal made earlier with those PACs, complete with commentary about how DOJ would be obligated to explore it and the legal jeopardy those involved could be in. A letter from Jeffries, or what will be members of the Judiciary Committee being sent to DOJ about this deal could also be released. Whatever agreement McCarthy might have mid-morning might not be so solid as journalist start hounding various people about possible legal trouble! And, as you say it would only take one of the votes McCarthy thought he had to switch and vote for the “not Kevin” candidate. Let’s face it, the GOP would quickly find a way to take the Gavel back. But again, it would be a mess that will make them look that much worse.
congressman Donald mceacherin died in November after reelection. he would have been 213 for Jeffries. the margins are so close, every vote counts.we are living in interesting times.
i don’t think this works. The last couple of votes he got 201 votes. So he’ll need 12 members to flip their vote to him to reach 213. He’ll need 10 present votes. That makes 22 votes. There are only 21 Reps who didn’t vote for him.
Or am I missing something?
Sounds right, actually. And since McCarthy has proven to suck at vote-counting, he’s likely to blow it if this is indeed the plan.