This election is indeed a time of signs and wonders. You can only think something cosmic is going on when a poll like this one comes out in deepest red Colorado’s 4th congressional district. I mean we are talking blood red, where the last congressman, Republican Ken Buck, led by 40 points. That’s a solid Republican bulwark, if ever there was one. But an internal poll conducted for one of the three Democrats contending in the primary shows that Ike McCorkle is leading Lauren Boebert in a hypothetical matchup 41% to 27%. Full disclosure: in this poll 1/3 of the voters were undecided. That seems incredible to me but we are told that’s what the poll said. But still, for Bobo who is the quasi-incumbent, that is a dismal figure.
McCorkle, a Marine veteran making his third run for the seat, led Boebert 41% to 27%, with 33% undecided in a hypothetical general election contest, a survey of likely general election voters released Tuesday by McCorkle’s campaign found.
The same poll showed former President Donald Trump 10 points ahead of President Joe Biden in the district, which covers Douglas County, Loveland and the Eastern Plains and is the state’s most reliably Republican congressional seat.
According to results reviewed by Colorado Politics, Trump had 45% to Biden’s 35%, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polling at 6% and 14% of votes undecided. Trump won the district’s electorate by an 18.5 percentage point margin in 2020.
Boebert, a two-term lawmaker representing the Western Slope-based 3rd Congressional District, moved into the 4th CD at the beginning of the year. She is facing five other Republicans in Colorado’s June 25 primary for a full term in the seat vacated by Republican Ken Buck when he resigned from Congress in March.
A concurrent special election between Republican Greg Lopez and Democrat Trisha Calvarese will decide who will fill the remainder of Buck’s term through the end of the year.
Bear in mind a number of important things:
1. Boebert squeaked by with 500-some votes in the last election in CO-03.
2. Boebert’s Beetlejuice antics coupled with her ridiculous voting record, her acrimonious public divorce and her criminally-accused young adult son have not helped her image. Quite the contrary.
3. She’s considered a carpetbagger in CO-04 and there is a fine argument to be made for that. She’s clearly afraid to face Adam Frisch in a rematch in CO-03.
4. She got the floor wiped with her in a recent primary debate.
All that said, she might squeak by and win the primary, or she might not. That’s up in the air and by no means assured. Ike McCorkle is known to the district, since this is his third run at the seat. And while conventional wisdom dictates that the Republican nominee will sweep to election in that district and that might have been true in elections prior to this one, Donald Trump has wreaked such havoc with the laws of political physics that it might no longer be carved in stone.
Again, this is one internal poll. And also again, 1/3 of the people polled said they were undecided. And also again, the institution of scientific polling is in a sad way for reasons which have been addressed on this blog and elsewhere. So bear all of that in mind.
But the clear takeaway here is for McCorkle to be consistently polling as well as he is in a deep red district, “the most reliably Republican district in the state,” is a commentary on how the dynamics in Colorado politics have shifted. It is not outlandish to suppose that ignorant, lying Boebert, who has nothing going for her other than her carefully cultivated MAGA image with the guns and the faux Christianity and the angry rhetoric and the classless ways, could go by the wayside and a legitimate candidate be elected.
Let us hope so. Boebert swept in on Trump’s coattails because she was a pistol packing mama and in MAGA world image is all. She’s part of the Madison Cawthorne, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake MAGA clique — which is to say she’s got nothing that qualifies her for Congress other than an image. All these others have gone down in flames with the exception of Greene — and even her insanity may drive her voters away. We don’t know. But Colorado isn’t Georgia and Boebert isn’t Greene. She could very well lose and my spidey sense tells me she will.
June 25, ladies and gentlemen. Be there. Will be wild.
And what an “image” it is…:)
Wasn’t Bobo (cough cough) “friends” with Teddy “Cancun” Cruze and ran for congress on his recommendation? Looks like it’s back to the pole for her. She can get some ROI on her fake tits.
I’d be very surprised if she won the primary. Shocked in fact. This poll-were the people polled asked about who they wanted to win the republican primary?