AP Already Projecting A Trump Win, So Why Is Trump Braying, ‘Be On the Lookout For Dirty Tricks’?

Two awards shows going on right now, ladies and gentlemen, both of them devoted to the performing arts. On one channel you can view the Emmy Awards, and see which actors and creative types have put on the best show. On other channels, you can watch the Iowa Caucus and see who is winning the award for performative assholery. If you’re sitting there reading this, we know which kind of entertainment you follow and we will tell you who’s beating who and how. Axios:

Former President Trump will win Monday’s pivotal first-in-the nation Iowa caucuses, the AP projects, cementing his status as the overwhelming frontrunner in the Republican primary

Why it matters: Trump’s campaign set expectations high heading into Iowa — and his victory signals that the lead he held in polls for months leading up to the caucuses is a reality among Republican voters.

The big picture: Scarred from his second-place finish in 2016, Trump descended on the Hawkeye State in the final stretch before the 2024 caucuses to shore up support and try to ensure strong turnout.

• Questions over turnout loomed large before the caucuses, especially as a polar vortex slammed the state, bringing frigid temperatures and blizzard conditions.
• “The biggest risk is you say, you know, ‘We’re winning by so much, darling, let’s stay home and watch television,'” Trump said in a warning to supporters earlier this month.

And this was about an hour into the caucus results that this was called. That’s some kind of a record and we’ll have stats for you later. Meanwhile, mysteriously, heeeeeere’s Trumpty.

Always.
If I lose, they cheated.
If I didn’t win by enough, they cheated.
If I won, it’s despite their cheating.
The madman who tried more than once to cheat in the 2020 election is always accusing others of that which he does himself.

— Jo (@JoJoFromJerz) January 16, 2024

Rick Wilson has a few comical images. Let’s share them.

Here are a few things I expect out of tonight’s results:

1. Trump’s victory is only a matter of degree. People will parse that degree tonight like a team of Jesuit semioticians, but in a GOP primary with a lot of winner-take-all states coming up, a win is a win is a win.

   Everyone else is out of money, time, and places to win.

2. The value (or lack thereof) of the vaunted DeSantis Field Operation will be judged tonight, but even if he beats Nikki Haley, the ROI is spectacularly, nay, comically awful. He’s dead, but too dumb to lay down by the side of the road and start letting vultures complete the circle of life.
3. The weather won’t matter as much. I spent the weekend in Iowa and I’ve never experienced anything even remotely so frigid. It was gulag weather. I suspect low turnout will be more attributable to the collapse DeSantis and the missishness of the vibe for Haley.
4. It’s over, but it’s not over for the media. You must expect an absolutely heroic effort to slap the paddles on Nikki Haley, even after a 25+ point Trump victory. (As an aside, per Jonathan Martin’s reporting) No Labels will claim that she’s absolutely, positively going to run on their ticket. Ain’t happening.)
5. Trump beats Governor Kim Reynolds…and they come crawling back to him. Ron DeSantis won arguably the two most powerful Iowa endorsements to which any Republican candidate could aspire…and they simply won’t matter. Reynolds has already pre-endorsed Trump on Fox, but sister, the pain you’re going to suffer from Donnie’s rage is not going to fade quickly. Expect the Iowa Nuclear Waste Center to be placed in downtown Des Moines by executive order.
6. Watch the evangelical vote; only the good Lord knows how much DeSantis and Vanderplats have moved those numbers, but I suspect that, much like my broader Diet Trump theory, Ron being a marginally less horrendous human won’t be enough to overcome their desire to worship the Umber Idol.

It ain’t over until it’s over, although arithmetically, the AP says it is and we did pretty much expect this outcome. But the real story, all the nuances and what will happen from here on out, is still unfolding in real time.

As to Trump’s inscrutable comments about “dirty tricks,” we don’t know what that means beyond what has already been stated.