This article is going to be a little different than what you expect from me. For a change, I’m going to take off my hat as a partisan progressive blogger, and try fitting on my purely practical political hat instead. Because not talking as a partisan Democrat doesn’t mean that I can’t have a legitimate opinion on politics.
And here’s my take on the GOP 2024 primary campaign. GOP Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would have to be an even bigger idiot than I already think he is to throw his hat into the ring in the 2024 GOP primaries. For almost more reasons than I can count.
For starters, there is no way that DeSanctis can beat Trump in the 2024 primaries. The moderate GOP has already hitched their star to DeSantis as Trump without the baggage. But unfortunately for him, DeSantis is also Trump without the personality. The man has the charisma of canned cling peaches. Also, DeSantis has no national imprint or presence. And worst, DeSantis is at heart a craven coward with a little man chip on his shoulder. Trump would mop the floor with him.
But there are more practical political reasons for DeSantis to sit this one out. With Trump already declared, paperwork filed, and in the race, anybody else who joins the field will be getting into a gobsmack mosh pit. Trump is fighting not just for his political life here, but his personal freedom. He is hoping to use his presidential candidacy as a shield against federal, and possibly state prosecution. And he will be like a feral cat. If anybody else actually survives him, they’ll come out so bloody that they’ll be unacceptable to the moderate base, much less Trump’s rabid base.
But DeSanctis’s best reason for staying right where he is simple political calculation. The GOP 2024 primaries are going to be brutal, and with the GOP House going full bore insane, it is highly unlikely that anybody who emerges can win the 2024 general election, DeSantis included. If Biden runs again in 2024, he’s a likely winner from where I’m sitting.
Stay in Florida. Burnish your far-right creds with the disaffected Trump base. You’re young yet. If Trump goes down in 2024, he ain’t coming back again. And if he wins, he’s turfed out in 2028. Do your job. Make some road trips to set up a national donor network. For Chrissakes get some lessons on how to develop a personality. Build your war chest, and keep your powder dry.
Because Florida has term limits. If DeSantis runs in 2024 and loses, he keeps his day job, but becomes branded as a national loser. If he simply serves out his term, he can get his ducks in a row, and then in 2028, when he’s no longer Florida Governor, he can make a grand announcement. If he runs in 2024 and loses, and then has to leave power in 2026, he leaves with the stigma of a national loser. Which would hamper him in 2027 when he announced his national run for 2028.
Look, from where I’m sitting, the Democrats retain the White House in 2024, retain the Senate, and retake the House. The GOP is a hot mess, and their bullshit neve rending investigations into Hunter Biden will turn off moderate voters. Far better for DeSantis to stay put, build his street creds, and wait until 2028 when neither Biden or Trump will be a factor anymore. He’ll still lose, because the GOP is a dying national party, but at least he’ll still be able to give it his best shot.