History may not repeat itself but it certainly does rhyme. And nowhere so much as in politics. We have another presidential election shaping up much as the one in 2016 did. And that is not good. 2016 marked a departure in American politics, not only from some “norm” but from all reason.
Why? A number of things. First and foremost, 2016 was the year of the populist, the year of the iconoclast. The initial instinct in both parties was to go the direction of political dynasties. Jeb Bush was pushed as a GOP front runner. Hillary Clinton was the chosen candidate for the Democrats.
More in-tune minds rejected this conventional wisdom and said, “Look at the political weathervane. It’s pointing towards change and change now.”
This is one of the main reasons that there was such a hew and cry about Bernie Sanders. And yes, I know Bernie’s downside. I know why the Democrats chose the “safe” route and went with Hillary. “It’s her turn now,” was the mantra, as if the nomination was something that was owed. In terms of intraparty politics, she may well have been owed the nomination but the general election doesn’t work that way. The voters assess things completely differently from party insiders.
While there were very sound reasons for nominating Hillary at the time, yes, she was the most qualified candidate ever to run for POTUS, reason and political reality are all too frequently two different species. It was felt in 2016 and I believe with good cause, “Bernie would have won.” Why? Because it was the year of the populist. If you had two populist candidates on the board, the saner of the two, which was Bernie Sanders by many miles, would have won. Or, such is my belief and such was the belief of many others at the time.
We, of course, will never know. All we can do is speculate about what woulda coulda shoulda been.
Now, we find ourselves in a similar situation. Polls indicate that people do not want a Trump/Biden rematch. Again, the political weather vane is doing something else. Do we want to heed it? Or do we want to double down, citing “reason” and lose? Again?
Don’t get me wrong. I think Joe Biden has done one hell of a job. He would be getting the recognition that he deserves now, but for the fact that he governs at what is arguably the craziest political time in our history. But all that said, and with the greatest of respect for both the man and his achievements to date, poll after poll comes out with the same information that people don’t want an octogenarian president, even one who has proven himself as worthy as Biden. And they don’t want to go through another insult-fest with Donald Trump. Dare we ignore the handwriting on the wall? As we did in 2016? Axios:
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A whopping 57% of Democrats say Biden shouldn’t run again, according to a CNBC survey released this week.
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Meanwhile, nearly as many GOP voters say they want Trump to step aside as those who prefer that he run again — 45% to 47%, according to a recent USA Today/Suffolk University poll.
Why it matters: The prospect of an octogenarian president running against a 78-year-old former president doesn’t square with the forward-looking mood of voters in both parties.
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Concerns about Biden’s health and Trump’s mental fitness will be glaring vulnerabilities in a general election.
The bottom line: The average American is often more sensible than the pundits.
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Voters expressed similar unease in 2015 about leading scions of two political dynasties — Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton — running against each other at a time of anti-establishment sentiment.
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Both lost to Trump, the consummate political outsider.
Recent history should not be ignored. This kind of repetitive conclusion in the polls should not be ignored. Finally, Joe Biden himself said that he saw himself as a “transitional” kind of a figure. That should not be ignored, either.
We need to be considering our alternatives now, as Democrats, in a party which currently is unified. The generational transfer of the baton just took place, without incident, in the House. Hakeem Jeffries seamlessly took up where Nancy Pelosi left off.
We don’t need another heavy controversy between a populist candidate and the establishment candidate that we saw in Hillary v. Bernie. That was so destructive to the party, in so many ways.
We need to sanely and sensibly consider what our options are in 2024. It may be time to put the debacle of Trump totally in the rear view mirror by not even offering up a Trump/Biden rematch.
Donald Trump thinks he’s going to do a Grover Cleveland and hold office in two non-consecutive terms. I say he’s going to do an Adlai Stevenson, if it comes down to it and he runs again against Joe Biden. Stevenson lost twice in the 1950’s to Dwight D. Eisenhower.
Trump believes he has to run. He’s got some cockamamie idea that if he runs, he can make all the legal activity freeze, which so far has not happened because that’s not how the law is written. But Trump has gotten away with so much for so long that what the actual law says is of little consequence. He’s too used to flouting it.
I don’t think Trump can win in a rematch against Biden. I think it will be Stevenson, redux. I also think that there is a lot to be said for wiping the slate clean and starting out with two younger candidates in 2024. That seems to be the zeitgeist that we are reading here, in these polls. Moving forward is what’s important to Americans, not rehashing the same tired grievances.
America doesn’t have the stomach for another Trump campaign for the presidency. If the GOP forces that upon us, they do so at their own peril. Likewise, if the Democrats refuse to read the political tea leaves, we, too, may make the same mistake that we made in 2016.
2016 was the year of the iconoclast, the populist. We ignored that. Trump did not. That was the main thing he had going for him, was being in tune with the temper of the moment, the zeitgeist. Had Democrats been in tune as well, they would have nominated Bernie Sanders and the election would have gone a different direction.
Will Democrats pay attention this time? It’s almost 2023, we best be thinking seriously about this. While I think that Biden can handily defeat Trump again, I think that a younger candidate, say Gavin Newsom, could totally clean his clock.
And again, no disrespect to Joe Biden. Not in the slightest bit. I’m merely trying to reconcile the polls that we see and the strategy of the Democratic party so that real leadership continues in this country and not political theater from the fragments that are battling for control of the shattered GOP.
I don’t worry about Biden’s mental acuity in a second term but l do worry about how the GOP will paint him in ageist terms whether Trump gets the nomination again or someone else. IF things in Ukraine get settled as in the war ends and a peace/rebuilding plan gets agreed upon by the beginning of summer I can see Biden deciding to step aside. If things are still screwy then frankly not just the U.S. but the world will need him to remain President.
One other thing and we’ll probably fight about it. Was Hillary a very well qualified candidate for President? No question about it. However I set my teeth every time I hear the “most qualified candidate ever” statement. I beg to differ. I can make a compelling case for numerous others being every bit as well qualified going back to Teddy Roosevelt. Much as I hate to say it probably the one with the most qualifications was a conservative Republican – the elder Bush. Son of a prominent Senator. Proved himself in business before politics. Served in the House. Was Ambassador to the U.N. and also a special envoy to China at a crucial time when relations were being established. He even headed the RNC at one point! then eight years as VP. Frankly I can’t think of anyone else on either side with the breadth and depth of relevant experience. Carter btw was a helluva lot more qualified than he’s ever been credited for being. Naval Academy grad and was a key member of Rickover’s team in creating the nuclear powered Navy. When his dad died he was slated to become the XO (that’s the second in command for you civilians) of one of the new class of nuclear subs he was clearly on the fast-track. He’d have gotten his own admiral’s flag someday and maybe risen to the top. But he not only saved the family business he expanded it beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. So he too had a quite successful private sector career. He also served in the GA state legislature and learned state politics and how stuff is done. He was also a Democratic Party activist during the mid sixties helping to push Civil Rights. Then he became Gov. of Georgia. Quite an impressive background.
Anyway, I wish people would stick with simply stating the fact that Hillary was extremely well qualified to be President and her CV would stack up well against any other major Party nominee. But please, can we all let go of the “best qualified ever?”
“I set my teeth every time I hear the “most qualified candidate ever” statement.” So do I, actually. But I didn’t respond to that just now because I had a different point to make, and I believe in “picking my battles”.
The only place we get a 2016 repeat is within the GOP. Ignore any talk of “frontrunners” like Trump and DeathSantis. Neither of them have enough savvy or staying power to go the distance, which means the presidential primaries are going to be a mosh pit of various losers. Several will be deranged, some even dangerous, hopefully none competent.
As for Bernie Sanders…well, I have a problem with an alleged “independent” going for a major party’s nomination. Bill Palmer is fond of saying there are no magic wands in politics. That applies to candidates too.
I completely agree with your argument about Bernie, but I don’t think it’s a good analogy with Biden. Here’s why: Biden is the incumbent, which neither Bernie nor Hillary were. And he has been doing a hell of a good job under EXTREMELY difficult circumstances. As for populism, Bernie is very much a part of the Biden team, and so is Elizabeth Warren. I don’t care about the popularity polls at this point. I am sure the aggregators are being gamed, and even if Biden really is less popular than he should be, it’s because the majority of the country is frustrated with the slow pace of the fight against Trump and all he stands for. Not to mention so much vitally important legislation that the GOP, with the help of Manchinema, have blocked. I understand that, because I am frustrated myself. But I also know that none of this is Biden’s fault. Although the GOP theoretically will control the house, they are so clueless and at odds with themselves that they may not be able to exercise control. And the senate will be somewhat better for Democrats than it has been. Therefore I don’t think we should try to change horses in midstream.
I voted for Bernie in the primary but when Hillary got the nod I voted for her. Anyone paying attention could see whitewater & Bengazi were pea & shell games run by the gop. Why was it her problem Bill couldnt keep his dick in his pants? They are gearing up to do it again now that the voters decided to give them the house. One problem was also Bernie waited too late and was not strong enough to get his supporters to understand that the election always is a binary choice. I argued with several of his supporters who voted for Jill stein. I reminded them they actually voted for Trump. These were educated young folks. Supposedly. You are onto something but it’s amazing how ignorant educated people are sometimes. I really don’t know how Biden keeps that kind of schedule. I’m 69, in excellent shape from a lifetime of daily exercise but I can’t imagine the stress that job entails, and I supervised thousands of psychiatric and substance abuse interventions for several hospitals. That seems like child’s play given his level of responsibility. It just seems built for a younger person but not too young and stupid. If Joe runs…we need to support him. Maybe he’ll decide he’s had enough of the whole thing and go play with his grandchildren.
if trump is the republican candidate then I am 100% Biden. If repubs dump trump, then I think he should step aside. Clinton in 92 and Obama in 2008 came out of no where. democrats have a deep bench. not bernie, not warren, not harris. not clinton. but there are others. I don’t want to see Biden going against a repub young gun. That will be a disaster.
If Biden doesn’t run Newsom will. And he may have the needed support to get nominated. I wonder who else could run.
If Joe Biden chooses to run, I will vote for him and support him. He deserves reelection and has earned it. His age has not slowed down his constant progress.
Other than Nelson or Harris, who should run for the Demo no.ination?
Adam Schiff would be one of my choices(could he run with Liz,Cheney or appoint her to some post ?).Warren? Who?
As a pollster for a significant portion of my working life, I am convinced polling is a lot like masturbation, it feels good but generally is not very productive. It gives people something to talk about when they should be doing real work. And how soon we forget, just a few weeks ago we were waiting to be overwhelmed by the red wave, which didn’t happen though it was predicted by many polls. I believe a sitting President will have a large part in deciding who runs.
The DNC won’t allow Bernie, or a Bernie-like candidate to run.
They would rather lose to the GOP than have an iconoclast as president.
That’s why a corporate tool like Jeffries was allowed to replace Nancy Momma-bear Pelosi.