We interrupt your Labor Day Weekend to bring you some news that will make the lemonade tarter, cooler, and sweeter than me. So, sit right up here and let me throw some southern comfort on ya’.
One guy is tossing around an idea that could make it near impossible for Trump to win the general election.
Trump’s chances at reelection look bleaker by the day. In recent polling, Trump had double digit deficits to every major Democratic candidate. Additionally, these damning polls do not even factor the damage about to be done through the fall, as more and more evidence comes forth about Trump’s taxes, financial entanglements, and (please, god) possible explanations for Trump’s obvious subordination to Vladimir Putin. Yes, things do indeed look grim for Trump.
What could possibly make it worse?
A challenge from the Right, one not susceptible to being snuffed out in a Republican primary. This challenge would come in the general election, a viable Libertarian candidate, a mainstream one, one with the ability to bleed Trump of 5-10% (or more) percentage points. The man could take Trump’s chances from slim down to none, especially in contested states, think Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, or … Michigan.
Meet Justin Amash, the Republican-Libertarian Congressman from Michigan. Per the Daily Beast:
Rep. Justin Amash’s political future has been the subject of intense fascination and interest in Republican circles these days. After his call to impeach Trump and his subsequent exit from the GOP, the libertarian congressman from Michigan has attracted tons of buzz over a possible run for president as a third-party candidate.
See that? Third party candidate, he will be face to face with Trump, vying for that Republican/Libertarian/overall conservative vote. Amash will not get a single vote that might otherwise go to an Elizabeth Warren. But he could drain considerable votes from Trump, enough to hand the White House to the Democratic nominee, in a wipe out.
Unlike other Trump challengers, Amash would not be competing against him in a primary. The damage he could inflict, instead, would come in a general election contest, where a conservative alternative to the sitting president could, potentially, pull away some Republican votes in key states. But there is a sense that he will need to announce soon in order to make a bid count—most likely by the end of the year.
Amash has some credibility with the “Trump-weary” crowd on the Right. He is the one Republican elected official, a Congressman, who has come out in favor of an impeachment inquiry. Republicans rewarded Amash’s bravery by showing him the door, or Amash left the party, whichever story you believe. But, being a current elected member of Congress, Amash has legitimacy that the average Libertarian candidate lacks.
Traditionally, there has been suspicion of Republicans who cross over to run as Libertarians, but the party’s last two presidential standard-bearers—former Gov. Gary Johnson and former congressman Bob Barr—were once formal Republican Party officials themselves. And thanks to Amash’s high profile and ideological pedigree, some in the Libertarian Party anticipate that the congressman could pick up significant support among the party’s rank-and-file shortly after launching a campaign.
Most importantly, it would be a voice from the Right arguing that Trump is not competent to hold the job, a voice that has READ the Mueller report, leaving such a bad taste in Amash’s mouth the he gave up the Republican party over it. That voice, could be powerful, should Amash garner sufficient support to make his way onto the debate stage, or even just into mainstream polls. Amash is likely one of the few people who could credibly deliver sufficient polling and money.
I have no tolerance for libertarians, who seem self-interested to a massive fault. But, anyone who wants to help me bring Trump down is a friend of mine. Hell, if he decides to run, I might donate money to his campaign. My first, biggest, and only priority is to get Trump out of office. Every vote for Justin Amash is one Trump needed, but didn’t get.
So important are those votes from the Right, Cong. Amash might be the person with the most individual power over Trump’s reelection chances. Or, to put it more accurately, no single American has more power to bring Trump down.
Comforted? A little?
Run, Justin, run hard, for our lives.
****
Peace, y’all
Jason
And by Popular Demand I am back to Twitter, please follow me at: @MiciakZoom
I think that Libertarians are loons but I do like the idea of Amash on the ticket! I think he would get a considerable number of conservative votes from Republicans that refuse to hold their nose &vote for Trump again. They will feel noble on election day and whoever the Democratic candidate is will win.
Has Amash shown any interest in this move?
Yes. He is being coy, but yes.
In the sense that it helps get rid of a nasty POS even by right wing standards, I would argue it’s somewhat noble. As long as it contributes to the best possible result, I say go for it, Amash. We need the covering fire.
Oh, Amash pulling an H. Ross Perot would make my DECADE, Jason. And what would he care about the backlash from it? Trump’s going to be persona non grata soon enough.
Libertarian candidates draw about equally across the spectrum and from voters who rarely vote, so the OP’s fantasy that a 10% Libertarian Party US candidate will destroy Trump is mistaken.
Plus anti-libertarian bigotry is an ugly thing, starting with the claim this centrist world community for science and rights in every country is one of the Right. Amash may be an informal libertarian fan, but he has never claimed to be a formal member of the Libertarian community.
I completely disagree that libertarians collect votes equally from across the spectrum. There is a reason the self-proclaimed libertarian was in the Republican party, and that the last Libertarian candidates came from the Republican party.
If you believe saying that I have “No tolerance” for Libertarians makes me a bigot, I suppose you are entitled to believe such. I should have written it slightly differently, “no tolerance for libertarian beliefs ..” might have been worded better, because I don’t. I am not against any one person on the basis of political beliefs only. But, I do not ascribe to the typical Libertarian platform that eschews greater societal obligations.
Having been involved in Libertarian Party campaigns and the party for years, Robert is correct. The LP traditionally draws from their small base and equally from the left and the right (which often means pulling equally from the Democrat and Republicans). There are biases at the state level when the state heavily favors Democrats or Republicans and the minority party has difficulty gaining any electoral success at the statewide level, they usually drawing crossovers from the majority party at a higher rate. The LP’s strongest electoral count bias is towards younger voters and while I think it is too broad to claim that they draw people who often don’t vote as often, the independents (despite largely aligning left or right) who refuse to align with any party are some of the higher number of voters willing to vote Libertarian.
The Republicans and Democrats love to blame third party votes for particular election failures, implicitly arguing they are somehow entitled to “their” votes and if not for that pesky competition, they’d have won. As anti-democratic as that sentiment is, it is often usually also wrong. A perfect example was the 2103 Governor’s race, when Rob Sarvis placed third behind Terry McAuliffe (D) and Ken Cuccinelli (R) with 6.5%. After the election, Republicans charged he had pulled votes away from Cuccinelli handing the election to McAulliffe (the margin of difference being 2.5%) but exit polling and the voting data backed up polling which showed that Sarvis actually pulled slightly more from McAuliffe’s traditional base than Cuccinelli’s.
Every election has unique attributes and a part of the author’s argument about the impact of an Amash candidacy may nonetheless be correct in 2020. The 2020 national race will be nothing less than a referendum on Donald Trump. The demographics and traditional voting patterns will be less relevant than this highly personalized election. Donald Trump has in part created, and in part been a reflection of a realignment within both of the legacy parties. He has shattered the traditional Republican coalition and ideological framework. The Democrats are going through their own ideological sorting.
The impact of the Libertarian nominee on any crossover bias in 2020 will depend more on who the Democrat nominate. If they nominate Warren or Sanders, the LP is likely to pull more from the Republicans, as traditional never-trump Republicans (who often status-quo interest classical establishmentarian Republicans, no lovers of libertarians) may vote for someone like Amash instead of voting Democrat because Warren and Sanders would be a step too far (to the left) for them. If the Democrats nominate someone like Biden, the LP vote will likely be balanced or with a slight bias of higher Democratic/Independent-left of center crossovers. That also is somewhat dependent upon who the Green’s nominate.
The other part of the author’s argument that I am sure will be wrong is size of the impact. It is very unlikely, leaning towards “under no circumstance” that the LP will pull 5 to 10% of the votes, especially from Trump. Trump’s base is baked in the cake, they may not vote, but they won’t crossover. Furthermore, the dynamics of the highly personalized and extreme partisanship between the Republican and Democratic parties will suppress third party results in 2020.
If a hard line progressive like Sanders or Warren win the D nomination Amash could draw MANY votes from more conservative democrats who can’t bring themselves to vote for either. The more likely scenario though is that they just won’t vote. Amash would need to convince such voters that it is better to have any D win but without their direct support which they can help accomplish by voting for him. There is much is the L platform for Ds to like such as opposition to foreign intervention, tariff-free trade, criminal justice reform and support of equal rights under the law for the LGBTQ community.
YES .. YES. ‘Most importantly, it would be a voice from the Right arguing that Trump is not competent to hold the job, a voice that has READ the Mueller report, leaving such a bad taste in Amash’s mouth the he gave up the Republican party over it. ‘
NOW we sit back and watch Putins Kompromat Machine take him out. I presume he will start by siccing Bernie on him.
This could be a lotta fun.WHADDYA think @CREWcrew ?
Someone should see Justin AMASH gets a copy. Tuesday SEPT 3 #ProofOfConspiracy comes out by Attorney Author @SethAbramson .. #Russian #TROLLBOTS have been hammering him … On @amazon (where it is Biggest MidEast Pol seller) tinyurl.com/y4olxjqr