Someday Trump’s war with Iran will end. During it many people who never gave much thought to the vital sea passage known as the Strait of Hormuz have gotten plenty of education. Safe passage of ships was guaranteed before, and will be again but Iran is now in a position to demand payment. It’s not crazy to say the portion of the United Nations Convention On the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)that guarantees safe and free passage through ‘choke points’ will if not fall apart then undergo major changes. Those changes will cost. Trump just might have killed off ‘freedom of the seas’ – another case of ETTD.
The world’s economy has been severely impacted by the Strait of Homuz’s extended closure. Now imagine other ‘choke points’ around the world where ships pay nothing or as in the Strait of Malacca a minimal fee. Thanks to provisions in UNCLOS ships filled with goods and commodities essentially pass through plenty of places other than the Strait of Hormuz that can be closed off – unless ships pay for passage. There are worrisome signs according to this article from Fortune that this freedom of passage will no longer be free. The Iran War and Iran’s insistence that when it’s over it be compensated for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz will become a template for other such ‘Straits.’
As the saying goes Everything Trump Touches Dies and his ‘touching’ the Strait of Hormuz with his dumbass war might have dealt a death blow to free passage of goods and commodities by sea. It’s clear Iran’s demand that in the future it get compensation for the passage of ships through Hormuz will be met either with a straight up toll or some other fee structure. In other places those who can exert control over certain passageways are taking notice:
Concerns are growing that the de-facto tolling of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a domino effect for key shipping bottlenecks worldwide, creating more global inflation and effectively killing key components of international maritime law.
This is going to cost countries, shipping lines, businesses and ultimately consumers around the world. Until now Iran which has essentially been an outlaw country since their Revolution has stuck to long-standing international law and treaties regarding free and safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Sure, they made threats here and there but didn’t want to take the chance when it came to shutting down the Strait for one reason or other as a bargaining chip to re-enter the global order. Now? They know they can get away with it and all prior bets are off. Centuries of tradition that got turned into formal international treaties are on the chopping block:
The so-called freedom of the seas is the centuries-old recognition that maritime transit and commerce should be free and open to all. The “absolute freedom of navigation” was insisted in Woodrow Wilson’s famed “Fourteen Points” statement of peace to end World War I. That legality is carried today through the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Seas.
While we’re looking at a global effect I still want to make the point is this all starts with Iran and Trump having chosen to take us to war with them. They were afraid to close the Strait before. They aren’t anymore. That’s a reality that gets mentioned but I don’t think folks have fully absorbed it, or the long-term consequences AND the broader effect around the globe likely to ensue:
As Iran insists on some form of fee structure for traversing the now-infamous strait—and the U.S. increasingly seems unable to prevent it—the rising expectation is that other nations may insist on new fees elsewhere, such as Asia’s Strait of Malacca, Europe’s and Africa’s Strait of Gibraltar, as well as key waterways impacted by Russia’s war in Ukraine.
“I think that the ‘freedom of the seas’ is dead,” said Michelle Brouhard, head of policy and geopolitical risk for the Kpler energy intelligence firm.
“The way that we’ve known maritime security is moving into a new era, and the rules are still getting rewritten,” Brouhard told Fortune. “It’s going to look different than what we’ve seen before. It’s going to be expensive; it’s going to be inflationary; and it’s also going to create a lot of benefits for people who start onshoring industrialization.”
This is what happens when a (intentionally – by conservatives over decades) dumbed down electorate votes in an incompetent and clueless President who makes a point of surrounding himself with equally incompetent and clueless people. And an entire political Part so enthralled with the perks of power and control in Congress unwilling to stand up to him. However the world is watching and we will never again be the undisputed leader of the free world. In fact, we now have so much to answer for we’ll have to fight like hell to fix some of the damage just getting a seat at the table in the main room will be a tall task!
Well, it’s not a pleasant thing to have to consider BUT I urge you to read the linked article. It’s one more reason to raise hell with your elected representatives. AND to work your butt off so that we can take firm control of both chambers of Congress. I said in another article recently only a real bloodbath for the GOP this fall will jolt enough Republicans into supporting Trump vetoes of legislation reining him in. However for the sake of future generations we have to get it done in the midterms, so the world can see there is enough of the old-school American spirit left that our country will in fact get it’s sh!t together.
Third paragraph errata: Composition = compensation.
Thanks for the catch – fixed it.