There are lot’s of unhappy voters out there this year. Some are angry. Some are discouraged. Some are both. In any midterm election there’s a concern with candidates and political Parties about getting people to actually cast their vote. With so much that’s gone on, or hasn’t (at least to many people’s satisfaction) this year there’s more concern than normal about a drop off in voting – people taking the “screw it, why bother?” attitude. We’re far enough along that some trends seem evident, and a couple of things seem likely. First, there will be a significant drop in voter participation. Second, more Republicans are likely to sit this election out than Democrats!
As we all know GOTV (Get Out The Vote) is a critical element to candidates and even their Parties. The effort to register new voters and get them to vote never stops. Same with the effort to get existing voters to cast their ballot. Midterms simply don’t, and never have gotten the level of voter participation. With 50% turnout 2018 was an aberration and a huge one. Many might assume with so much going on that even if we don’t get to 2018 levels turnout will be greater than normal for a midterm. Experts including from both major political Parties and of course pundits who do polling or swim in the data are saying otherwise. If anything turnout will be less than normal. Ouch.
As I said there’s a continual effort to sign up new voters. As I was reading this CNN article it occurred to me I haven’t seen many stories about groups making real progress in adding voters to the rolls. Well, of course candidates and Parties want to add voters. However according to CNN instead of ‘addition’ this year will be one where ‘subtraction’ prevails. And that the GOP will be hit harder by this brewing subtraction more than Democrats. GOP powers-that-be are worried it will be a difference maker and not one that benefits them:
The subtraction risk for Republicans is the prospect that President Donald Trump’s slipping approval rating among his 2024 voters will cause meaningful components of the coalition that elected him to sit out November’s midterms.
Polls suggest that’s a greater danger for the GOP than the possibility that Democrats will add a big cache of new votes — either by turning out many people who did not participate in 2024, or by convincing a significant share of 2024 Trump supporters to vote blue.
I’ve had bold, even crazy dreams in this life I’ve led. Being a Major League Baseball player (for the Cubs), becoming an astronaut even though by Jr. High School I was already over the six foot tall height limit. You get the idea. But I’ve never had any wild notions about MAGAs en masse suddenly realizing they’d been suckered by Trump and in a fit of petulance voting Democratic to teach him a lesson. However I have at times thought some would be disillusioned enough to not bother voting at all. MAGAs and others who think too much like them. or old school Republicans that “go along” NOT voting isn’t as good as a vote for our candidates.
However even that helps. At times I’ve expressed that we might get as many as two or three percent, even more (with five percent being a ceiling) and that in any close election that can make the difference. Apparently even political experts and operatives think about this sometimes and they’ve decided to take a look at the lay of the land this year:
“When both parties are viewed negatively, you are probably going not to see a lot of new voters,” said Texas-based GOP strategist Matt Mackowiak, with a view widely shared on both sides.
Instead, this year’s result could turn on which side suffers greater falloff among the voters who backed it in 2024. And all signs so far indicate that Republicans now face the greater risk from that sort of subtraction.
For the GOP, this year’s biggest challenge will be would-be voters who say, “I’m frustrated, I’m disappointed, I’m pissed off and I’m not going to bother,” said Democratic pollster Paul Maslin. “And the I’m-not-going- to-bother voters will be disproportionately (Trump’s) voters, and not ours.”
The experts are pretty sure both sides will see a falloff (subtraction) in turnout this fall. But more importantly they think it’s going to be more significant with Republican voters. The linked article takes a few minutes to read but I assure you it’s worth your time. I think, or at least hope it will motivate you to not just vote, but convince other Democrats and Independents who lean our way to vote too. Yes, a lot of regular folks Democrats are pissy over “our side” not fighting in DC as hard as they should. Well, I too would like to see more fight but I also know when you have almost not control it’s wise to pick your battles. The GOP controls SCOTUS, both chambers of Congress and the WH.
The unorthodox, crazy-assed conservative “Unitary Executive Theory” is being played out right before our eyes. On steroids provided by SCOTUS and a lapdog GOP Congress. In fact, Trump has mostly issued orders to Congress and they’ve simply gone along with him, or at least haven’t stood in his way even as he’s usurped their own power. In the Senate, due to the filibuster sometimes Democrats can tap the brakes on Trump but again, Democrats have to pick their battles. Over in the House the Speaker has virtually unchecked power. The only thing Hakeem Jeffries can do is speak up publicly on the worst matters, and privately work with his caucus to poach a few Republicans on this or that matter.
My point to fellow Democrats is to GET THE HELL OVER IT! You don’t like Trump in the WH? Then let me tactlessly rip on you about 2016. The whining over Bernie ‘not getting a fair shot’ caused some Independents who might have voted for her to give Trump a shot. And other Democrats decided to register their protest by not voting. So we got Trump. In 2024 Biden got screwed over. I call bullshit on what I’m increasingly seeing about how he’d promised to only serve one term. If he made such a promise I never saw it. Then it was ‘Kamala was anointed/forced on us but the real dagger to the heart was she didn’t (and couldn’t – it would take a long article to explain why) publicly break with administration policy on Israel.
It wasn’t just Americans with Palestinian or Muslim roots but others who decided by god they’d teach HER and the Party a lesson. How’s that worked out folks? That’s why I say get over it to those who are discouraged or pissed off that Democrats in DC haven’t more effectively reined in Trump. WE THE VOTERS have the power to put Democrats back in control of Congress and then believe me you’ll see Trump getting politically slapped around like a tetherball. But ONLY if you vote!
Democrats have what I consider a weak-assed reason to sit this one out. However Republicans have plenty of reason to do so and it’s not going to change much (if any) between now and November. Trump’s tariffs did a number on the economy and hurt us diplomatically. There’s the mess he made with the Epstein files. And his stupid war with Iran. He promised to bring inflation down (when it was already coming down and getting close to normal levels) and he sent it back up. But the two biggest things for hard core MAGAs in particular was releasing the Epstein files and no open ended foreign wars. Trump has screwed the pooch on both and MAGAs are actually angry.
Again, not enough to vote for Democrats. But as this article lays out enough so that they are inclined to simply not vote this time. That could be all we need. Even five percent sitting it out (and it could be more) puts us in the driver’s seat, especially if we make sure our own voters who are discouraged get over it and vote.
Friends, I know everyone begs you for money. I promise, among all those asking for spare change, we are the smallest and the hardest working. We’re a group of old, disabled people, except for one writer in his mid-50s. The rest of us are in our sixties and seventies, and this is a labor of love. All we’re asking for is the chance to keep telling the truth about Trump and help ensure democracy survives. If you can help, please do. Thank you. Ursula
